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Revisiting why incompetents think they’re awesome

Revisiting why incompetents think they’re awesome
In 1999 a pair of researchers published a paper called "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments (PDF)." David Dunning and Justin Kruger (both at Cornell University's Department of Psychology at the time) conducted a series of four studies showing that, in certain cases, people who are very bad at something think they are actually pretty good. They showed that to assess your own expertise at something, you need to have a certain amount of expertise already. Remember the 2008 election campaign? The financial markets were going crazy, and banks that were "too big to fail" were bailed out by the government. In all of this, uninformed idiots blame the Greeks for being lazy, the Germans for being too strict, and everyone but themselves. It has been more than 10 years since Dunning and Kruger published their work. This paper has become a cult classic. Like Dunning, I do not take such a dim view of humanity. Related:  Irony, Postmodernism, and Our Current AgeDistorted Thinking

A World Without Copyright - House Absolute(ly Pointless) In discussions on Hacker News I’ve said several times that I think copyright should be abolished. Some people agree, but I often get a reply asking how I expect programmers, musicians, or authors to make a living in such a world. Before I address that question, I’ll take a brief digression. While I’m all for abolishing copyright, that doesn’t mean I’m against all property rights. Physical property rights are a good thing. Creative works covered by copyright are (mostly) not physical. Whether or not you support copyright, I hope we can agree that physical things and data are fundamentally different. Copyright laws were initially established to encourage creative people to create stuff. This made (some) sense when these laws were created, but modern technology has made such laws obsolete. Here’s how a world without copyright might work. The right to release (or not) Just because copyright should be abolished doesn’t mean that there should be no rights for creators. Let’s start with music. Art

People who think their opinions are superior to others are most prone to overestimating their relevant knowledge and ignoring chances to learn more By guest blogger Tom Stafford We all know someone who is convinced their opinion is better than everyone else’s on a topic – perhaps, even, that it is the only correct opinion to have. Maybe, on some topics, you are that person. The researchers distinguish “belief superiority” from “belief confidence” (thinking your opinion is correct). The pair set out to find people who felt their beliefs on a variety of controversial political issues (things like terrorism and civil liberties, or wealth redistribution) were superior, and to check – using multiple choice quizzes – how well they were informed on the topics about which they held these superiority beliefs. Across five studies Hall and Raimi found that those people with the highest belief superiority also tended to have the largest gap between their perceived and actual knowledge – the belief superior consistently suffered from the illusion that they were better informed than they were. Overall the research presents a mixed picture.

The Woman Who Changed Her Brain by Barbara Arrowsmith-Young: Review zoom People with learning disabilities have long been told they must learn to compensate for their deficits, because they will never improve. In The Woman Who Changed Her Brain, Barbara Arrowsmith-Young offers her own story, and those of her students, to refute that conventional wisdom. It's a fascinating book that speaks to the lag between exciting developments in brain science, and existing educational practices. Arrowsmith-Young was born in 1951 with serious learning disabilities. Arrowsmith-Young's phenomenal memory and determination got her through school. At 25, Arrowsmith-Young encountered, while in graduate school, the work of Aleksandr Luria, a Russian doctor and psychologist who helped brain-damaged soldiers overcome their dysfunction. Based on this research, Arrowsmith-Young created flash cards to simulate the movement of a clock's hands. Arrowsmith-Young's fog lifted — for good, she says. The book is also frustrating, however. Dr.

Banker's wife: 'I knew what I was getting into' | Joris Luyendijk People in finance work incredibly long hours. What's it like being married to such a person? In an earlier post here, a banker's ex-girlfriend spoke of her failed attempts to make her relationship work. She agreed to sit for an interview, after warning: "I have no extravagant stories to share". "I think it helps that I know what it's like for him. "The world of finance is a way of life. "When the last crisis hit, at some point almost all our foreign friends had left London. "I knew what I was getting into. "You're asking, I sacrificed my career to come live with him, now what is he sacrificing for me? "On weekdays I do not include my husband in any of my after-office plans. "It strikes me sometimes what a different life other people lead. "When we book a holiday it does bother me a little because we can never be sure whether we are actually going until the very last moment. "Besides, it used to be much worse. "We do hope to have kids at some point.

Iran Snap Analysis: Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind The second round of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) on the nuclear programme are now receding. The third, to be held in Moscow, are more than three weeks away. So it is now time for the Islamic Republic to put out stories about its economic achievements and success in repelling the aggressive sanctions of the "West". Press TV offers an example: Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano says Tokyo is considering "realistic" options to ensure the country's imports of Iranian crude are not disrupted. Here is what Press TV leaves out --- the already-significant impact of the sanctions on Japanese purchases of Tehran's oil, with the possiblity of more constriction --- from the original report by Platts News Service: But Press TV is not alone in its insistence that All Is Well. If they do, then they may be in for an awakening as they go to Moscow on 18-19 June. Still, there are ripples that could change the scenario.

Magazine - Host [Click the phrases within the colored boxes to read the commentary.] Mr. John Ziegler, thirty-seven, late of Louisville's WHAS, is now on the air, "Live and Local," from 10:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. every weeknight on southern California's KFI, a 50,000-watt megastation whose hourly ID and Sweeper, designed by the station's Imaging department and featuring a gravelly basso whisper against licks from Ratt's 1984 metal classic "Round and Round," is "KFI AM-640, Los Angeles—More Stimulating Talk Radio." The John Ziegler Show is the first local, nonsyndicated late-night program that KFI has aired in a long time. It is currently right near the end of the program's second segment on the evening of May 11, 2004, shortly after Nicholas Berg's taped beheading by an al-Qaeda splinter in Iraq. Across the soundproof glass of the opposite wall, another monitor in the Airmix room is running an episode of The Simpsons, also muted, which both the board op and the call screener are watching with half an eye.

Petit recueil de 18 moisissures argumentatives pour concours de mauvaise foi Petit recueil de non plus 18, mais 20 moisissures argumentatives à utiliser sans modération lors des concours de mauvaise foi. Ont été intégrés les plurium et l’argument de l’exotisme. Nous avons découpé ces moisissures argumentatives en trois grandes catégories : les erreurs logiques, les attaques, et les travestissements. Télécharger en pdf la mise en page magnifique du graphiste Francois-b. 1. Méthode : prendre un échantillon trop petit et en tirer une conclusion générale. Exemples : Mon voisin est un imbécile moustachu, donc tous les moustachus sont des imbéciles.Les Chinois sont vachement sympas. Exemples aggravés (menant au racisme ordinaire) : Le Chinois est vachement sympa. 2. Méthode : raisonner à rebours, vers une cause possible parmi d’autres, vers un scénario préconçu ou vers la position que l’on souhaite prouver. Exemples : C’est fou,le melon est déjà prédécoupé pour être mangé en famille .Le monde est trop bien foutu, c’est une preuve de l’existence d’une volonté divine. 3. 4. 5.

25 Definitions of Innovation In a recent blog post proposing a definition of innovation, I noted that innovation means different things to different people. It ultimately is what you think it is. What’s a useful definition for you won’t work for others, and vice versa. I asked for people’s definitions on several LinkedIn groups, and the community came forward with many interesting and valuable perspectives. For me, the value of this was two-fold: Challenge my own perceptions of innovation and expand my horizonsUnderstand the different ways people talk about innovation I went through the many great comments, and pulled out 25 definitions of innovation. The five themes for the definitions are illustrative of the major patterns of thought in innovation. Business Model This is the sense of innovation in the broader context of companies and markets. Ray Meads: A patentable solution (external verified uniqueness) with a differentiated business model that changes the basis of business for that specific industry sector.

Bruce Berkowitz: The megamind of Miami He may be the most driven investor on earth. And now the founder of the $17 billion Fairholme Fund is making the boldest bet of his career. Berkowitz in his home office in Coral Gables, Fla., with his beloved poodle, Jazz. Bruce Berkowitz is starting to sweat. As he charges through the darkness in shorts, running shoes, and a black University of Miami zip-up hoodie, Berkowitz bounces from topic to topic in his typical scattershot way. Finally, on the fourth or fifth pass down his block, Berkowitz, 52, gets around to the biggest and most public wager of his life: his $5 billion bet on the resurgence of Wall Street. Berkowitz may not be a household name to most investors, but he should be. The fund's outstanding returns -- along with Berkowitz's being crowned U.S. stock manager of the decade this year by investment research firm Morningstar -- have attracted a flood of new money to Fairholme. Berkowitz welcomes the influx of money. Can Berkowitz continue to beat the odds?

An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces By Joe Romm on September 28, 2011 at 4:49 pm "An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces" Humanity’s Choice (via M.I.T.): Inaction (“No Policy”) eliminates most of the uncertainty about whether or not future warming will be catastrophic. Aggressive emissions reductions dramatically improves humanity’s chances. In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. Staggeringly high temperature rise, especially over land — some 10°F over much of the United StatesPermanent Dust Bowl conditions over the U.S. Remember, these will all be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade. By virtue of their success in promoting doubt and inaction, the climate science deniers and disinformers have, tragically and ironically, turned the worst-case scenario into business as usual. As Dr.

Do You Really Want to Live Forever? Imagine you are offered a trustworthy opportunity for immortality in which your mind (perhaps also your body) will persist eternally. Let’s further stipulate that the offer includes perpetual youthful health and the ability to upgrade to any cognitive and physical technologies that become available in the future. There is one more stipulation: You could never decide later to die. Would you take it? Metaphysician and former British diplomat Stephen Cave thinks accepting such an offer would be a bad idea. Cave’s fascinating new book, Immortality, posits that civilization is a major side effect of humanity's attempts to live forever. Cave identifies four immortality narratives that drive civilizations over time which he calls; (1) Staying Alive, (2) Resurrection, (3) Soul, and (4) Legacy. Why not simply repair the damage caused by aging, thus defeating physical death? Resurrection is his next immortality narrative. The Transformation problem is harder. Counterfeit?

50 Common Cognitive Distortions 3. Negative predictions. Overestimating the likelihood that an action will have a negative outcome. 4. Underestimating your ability cope with negative events. 5. Thinking of unpleasant events as catastrophes. 6. For example, during social interactions, paying attention to someone yawning but not paying the same degree of attention to other cues that suggest they are interested in what you’re saying (such as them leaning in). 7. Remembering negatives from a social situation and not remembering positives. 8. Believing an absence of a smiley-face in an email means someone is mad at you. 9. The belief that achieving unrelentingly high standards is necessary to avoid a catastrophe. 10. Believing the same rules that apply to others should not apply to you. 11. For example, I’ve made progress toward my goal and therefore it’s ok if I act in a way that is inconsistent with it. 12. For example, believing that poor people must deserve to be poor. 13. 14. It’s not. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23.

Beautycheck - social perception Do attractive people have any advantages? Are they treated better than less attractive? Is it important to look good on an application photo? According to our investigations the answer to these questions is yes. A selection of the faces that have been presented: Attractive female faces: Unattractive female faces: Attractive male faces: Unattractive male faces: All faces do not exist in reality. The results are alarmingly clear. home

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