Why Oil Prices Might Never Recover Submitted by Arthur Berman via OilPrice.com, Two years into the global oil-price collapse, it seems unlikely that prices will return to sustained levels above $70 per barrel any time soon or perhaps, ever. That is because the global economy is exhausted. The current oil-price rally is over as I predicted several months ago and prices are heading toward $40 per barrel. Oil has been re-valued to affordable levels based on the real value of money. Meanwhile, a global uprising is unfolding. The U.K. vote to exit the European Union is part of it. The uprising seems to be about immigration and borders but it’s really about hard times in a failing global economy. Energy Is The Economy Energy is the economy. The oil-price collapse that began in July 2014 followed the longest period of unaffordable oil prices in history. (Click to enlarge) Figure 1. That was more than 3.5 times longer than the period from September 2007 through September 2008 just before the financial collapse. Figure 2. Figure 3.
World Oil 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 2) » Peak Oil Barrel Department of Economics, University of Utah E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu July 2018 This is Part 2 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world oil production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world oil supply and considers the implications of peak oil production for global economic growth. (See Figure 18 near end of paper) American geologist M. This report uses Hubbert linearization to evaluate a region’s ultimately recoverable oil resources where a Hubbert linear trend can be meaningfully established, .that is, where a clear downward trend of the annual production to cumulative production ratios can be identified and has been established for at least several years. Figures are placed at the end of each section. Oil Consumption by Major Economies, 1990-2017 Figure 1 compares the historical world economic growth rates and the oil consumption growth rates from 1991 to 2017. The United States Saudi Arabia Iran
Effetto Risorse: La crescita anti-economica Da "Uneconomic growth in theory and in fact" (traduzione d Jacopo Simonetta) Prolusione di Herman E. Daly. tenutasi al Trinity College, Dublino, 26/04/1999 Ciò di cui voglio parlarvi oggi è un concetto che ritengo importante, anche se non se ne sente parlare molto. Questo pomeriggio, il testo per la mia presentazione è preso da John Ruskin: “Ciò che sembra essere ricchezza in verità potrebbe essere soltanto una dorata indicazione verso la sopravveniente rovina”. In seguito discuterò quello che potrei definire “il problema del paradigma”, anche se utilizzerò un termine economico. Quindi, se vi avrò convinti della possibilità che la crescita anti-economica abbia forse un senso in teoria, esiste la crescita anti-economica nei fatti? Parlerò degli Stati Uniti e non dell’Irlanda per la semplice ragione che non so niente dell’Irlanda, malgrado i miei antenati vengano da qui. Bene, prima di rispondere, penso che sia bene porsi una domanda simile in micro-economia. Che cos’è l’ecosistema? Uno.
“La democrazia non esiste, siamo schiavi del denaro, abbiamo bisogno di naufragare nel sogno”: Gianluca Barbera dialoga con Alessandro Pertosa, stratega della sovversione poetica - Pangea Alessandro Pertosa, classe 1980, marchigiano, è uno che non le manda a dire. Il suo pensiero si muove tra teorie sovversive e altre più stabilizzanti. Crede nella poesia e nell’utopia più che nella ragione. È eterodosso rispetto a qualsiasi ortodossia. Lo abbiamo intervistato. Cominciamo da uno dei temi che più ti stanno a cuore: il lavoro. Il lavoro umano va progressivamente contraendosi. Hai spesso tessuto l’elogio dell’ozio? Quando parlo di ozio lo intendo come il tempo della riflessione, dello spirito. E il denaro? Sin da bambino ho un pessimo rapporto col denaro. Tu sei, come recita un tuo libro, per una “decrescita felice, selettiva e governata”. Sono un teorico sui generis della decrescita. Hai assunto un atteggiamento critico verso il darwinismo. Non ho una posizione critica sul darwinismo in sé. Siamo ancora o siamo mai stati in una vera democrazia? Democrazia significa letteralmente potere al popolo. Cosa ne pensi del governo Renzi-Gentiloni? E del nuovo governo? Come sopra. Sì.
Arctic News: Climate Plan An Effective and Comprehensive Climate Plan At first glance, one might think that, given the lack of action on climate change, any regulatory action may seem welcome. Nonetheless, if we do have a say in the matter, why not advocate what we believe are the best policies? The Climate Plan blog offers opportunities for people to join the calls for effective and comprehensive action. Feebates typically are the most effective way to achieve the necessary shifts, and they generally are best implemented locally. Importantly, for a climate plan to be both comprehensive and effective, these different parts and each of their associated lines of action should be implemented simultaneously. Why local feebates? A carbon tax is more straight forward and effective than cap-and-trade or standards. How are local feebates best implemented? Local feebates, is that all we need? Will it work internationally? Why this Climate Plan should be supported Why the Climate Plan must be supported
The study on collapse they thought you should not read – yet « Professor Jem Bendell A research paper concluding that climate-induced collapse is now inevitable, was recently rejected by anonymous reviewers of an academic journal. It has been released directly by the Professor who wrote it, to promote discussion of the necessary deep adaptation to climate chaos. “I am releasing this paper immediately, directly, because I can’t wait any longer in exploring how to learn the implications of the social collapse we now face,” explained the author Dr Bendell, a full Professor of Sustainability Leadership. In saying the paper was not suitable for publication, one of the comments from the reviewers questioned the emotional impact that the paper might have on readers. “I was left wondering about the social implications of presenting a scenario for the future as inevitable reality, and about the responsibility of research in communicating climate change scenarios and strategies for adaptation.” wrote one of the reviewers. Dear Professor Adams, Yours sincerely, Jem Bendell Like this:
No really, how sustainable are we? | Damn the Matrix This is a most interesting piece I found on the interweb, written by Paul Chefurka almost three years ago. Paul is happy for this article to be reproduced in full, no questions asked, and as I feel it needs to be widely read, the more internet presence it has the better, and now you DTM readers can share it too… Paul, who is Canadian, has an interesting website chockablock full of insightful stuff you may also want to read. Enjoy……. Ever since the writing of Thomas Malthus in the early 1800s, and especially since Paul Ehrlich’s publication of “The Population Bomb” in 1968, there has been a lot of learned skull-scratching over what the sustainable human population of Planet Earth might “really” be over the long haul. This question is intrinsically tied to the issue of ecological overshoot so ably described by William R. This article outlines my current thoughts on carrying capacity and overshoot, and presents six estimates for the size of a sustainable human population. First assessment Urk!
Consumo di suolo, dinamiche territoriali e servizi ecosistemici. Edizione 2018 L’edizione 2018 del Rapporto sul consumo di suolo in Italia, la quinta dedicata a questo tema, fornisce il quadro aggiornato dei processi di trasformazione del nostro territorio, grazie alla cartografia aggiornata del Sistema Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente (SNPA), che vede ISPRA insieme alle Agenzie per la protezione dell’ambiente delle Regioni e delle Province Autonome, in un lavoro congiunto di monitoraggio svolto anche utilizzando le migliori informazioni che le nuove tecnologie sono in grado di offrire. Il Rapporto analizza l’evoluzione del consumo di suolo all’interno di un più ampio quadro delle trasformazioni territoriali ai diversi livelli, attraverso indicatori utili a valutare le caratteristiche e le tendenze del consumo e fornisce nuove valutazioni sull’impatto della crescita della copertura artificiale, con particolare attenzione alla mappatura e alla valutazione dei servizi ecosistemici del suolo. Pubblicazione disponibile solo in formato elettronico
Causes Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect"1 — warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Long-lived gases that remain semi-permanently in the atmosphere and do not respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are described as "forcing" climate change. Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include: Water vapor. On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. The consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict, but certain effects seem likely: On average, Earth will become warmer. The role of human activity The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. Solar irradiance
Substituting Beans for Beef Would Help the U.S. Meet Climate Goals Ecoanxiety is an emerging condition. Named in 2011, the American Psychological Association recently described it as the dread and helplessness that come with “watching the slow and seemingly irrevocable impacts of climate change unfold, and worrying about the future for oneself, children, and later generations.” It’s not a formal diagnosis. Anxiety is traditionally defined by an outsized stress response to a given stimulus. This sort of disposition toward ecological-based distress does not pair well with a president who has denied the reality of the basis for this anxiety. For people who experience climate-related anxiety, this all serves as a sort of exacerbation by presidential gaslight. Like what? Helen Harwatt is a researcher trained in environmental nutrition, a field focused on developing food systems that balance human health and sustainability. “I think there’s genuinely a lack of awareness about how much impact this sort of change can have,” Harwatt told me. Related Video