We broke a whole lotta climate records in 2014 As has been seen year after year, the warming of the Earth is causing major changes in many aspects of the planet’s climate, and 2014 was yet another year that showed this trend in stark relief, a report released Thursday says. Numerous records were broken last year, according to the State of the Climate report, an annual checkup of the global climate published in a special issue of the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Now in its 25th year, the report pulls together hundreds of scientists from dozens of countries to piece together the changes from the previous year in all aspects of the Earth’s climate — from carbon dioxide levels to the planet’s rising temperature, from glacier melt to change in soil moisture — and puts them in the context of decades-long trends. Here are four key points to draw from the report: Four datasets of global temperatures ranked 2014 as the warmest year on record (or tied for warmest) going back to 1880.
Réchauffement : le seuil limite des 2 °C est trop élevé LE MONDE | • Mis à jour le | Par Stéphane Foucart Deux degrés Celsius. Emblème de la lutte contre le changement climatique en cours, ce seuil limite s’est imposé ces dernières années, chez les responsables politiques et le grand public, comme le réchauffement à ne pas excéder, par rapport à la période préindustrielle, pour éviter toute interférence dangereuse avec le climat. Lire aussi : A six mois de la conférence sur le climat de Paris, les négociations patinent Long de plus de 180 pages, le rapport est le fruit d’un dialogue entretenu depuis 2013 entre les négociateurs de la COP et plusieurs dizaines de scientifiques, notamment membres du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC). Ne pas excéder 1,5 °C La différence des efforts à entreprendre entre un objectif de 2 °C et de 1,5 °C n’a rien de marginal : selon le GIEC, dans le premier cas, il faut réduire les émissions de 40 % à 70 % d’ici à 2050, dans le second de 80 % à 90 %. Un chiffre sorti des limbes
Watch global warming spiral out of control The temperature spiral that took the world by storm has an update. If you think the heat is on in our current climate, you ain’t seen nothing yet. To recap, University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins wrecked the internet a few weeks ago with a revolutionary new way to look at global temperatures. Using a circular graph of every year’s monthly temperatures and animating it, Hawkins’ image showed planetary heat spiraling closer to the 2 degrees C threshold in a way no bar or line graph could do. His tweet with the original graphic has been shared 15,000 times, and it’s been dubbed the most compelling climate visualization ever made (sorry, landmarked Keeling Curve). The spiral’s popularity can be attributed in part to its hypnotic nature and the visceral way it shows the present predicament of climate change. Hawkins’ graphic hints at the temperature spiral to come, but now a new addition brings what the future holds into stark relief.
2014 was officially the hottest year ever For many Americans, 2014 will be remembered for its multiple blasts of Arctic air and bitter winters. And this week, another bout of freezing temperatures is marching east across the country, in the first major thermometer plunge of the season. But as cold as you may have been last year, it’s now official that 2014 was actually the hottest year globally since record-keeping began. The Japanese government agency monitors and records the long-term change of the global average surface temperatures and found that 2014 was far warmer than previous years. The data shows that four out of the five hottest years on record have occurred in the last decade: In second place is 1998, then 2010 and 2013 tied for third, and 2005 in fifth place. Two U.S. government agencies, NOAA and NASA, are expected to confirm the results of the Japanese observations in the coming weeks. This story was produced as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
Samedi-sciences (152) : les volcans freinent le réchauffement climatique Les éruptions volcaniques, mêmes mineures, qui se sont produites entre 2000 et 2013 pourraient avoir freiné de manière significative le réchauffement du climat planétaire, d’après une nouvelle étude parue dans la revue de l’Union américaine de géophysique (Geophysical Research Letters). Cette étude dirigée par David Ridley, spécialiste de l’atmosphère au MIT, démontrent que les petites éruptions ont plus d’influence sur la température de l’atmosphère qu’on ne le pensait, et pourraient avoir fait baisser le thermomètre planétaire de 0,05 à 0,12°C. Depuis la fin des années 1990, la température de l’atmosphère ne s’est pas élevée autant que le prévoyaient les modèles, et n’est pas montée aussi vite que pendant la dernière partie du 20ème siècle (même si 2014 s’annonce comme l’année la plus chaude depuis que l’on a commencé à enregistrer les températures, en 1880). Le climat continue donc de se réchauffer, mais moins vite que ce à quoi l’on s’attendait.
Study: 10 Yrs. to Stop Climate Damage or Else! (as Pruitt Calls for U.S. to ‘Exit’ Paris Accord) - EnviroNews | The Environmental News Specialists (EnviroNews USA Headline News Desk) — Humanity has about a decade to reduce carbon emissions and meet the climate goals set by the monumental Paris Agreement (Paris accord) of 2016, according to an International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) study called, Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks. The study’s urgent recommendations are in stark contrast with the mindset of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Scott Pruitt, who on April 13, called for a complete “exit” from the historic Paris Agreement, calling it “a bad deal for America.” The Austrian study, published in the journal Nature Communications in February 2017, analyzes the release and uptake of carbon through both natural and anthropogenic (human-caused) sources. The 1.5°C target he refers to is the secondary goal of the Paris accord, which has a primary goal of keeping the rise in global temperature to below 2°C.
Climat : un rapport alarmiste pour Ségolène Royal Samedi 6 septembre, la Ministre de l'Ecologie devait se rendre en Haute-Savoie pour visiter plusieurs sites du massif du Mont-Blanc. Arrivant à Saint-Gervais, Ségolène Royal était attendue au refuge du Gouter (3835 m d'altitude) pour l'inauguration des nouveaux locaux dont le fonctionnement est entièrement pensé de façon écologique (technologie et gestion des ressources). L'objectif de ce déplacement, outre la prise de conscience de la fragilité du milieu naturel montagnard et son exposition au changement climatique, vise à évoquer la future conférence mondiale sur le climat qui se tiendra à Paris à l'automne 2015. A ce sujet, un rapport sur le "réchauffement climatique" devait être remis à Ségolène Royal ce samedi, intitulé " Le climat de la France au XXI ème siècle". Des conclusions toujours alarmistes ! Issu des dernières conclusions remises par le GIEC en 2013, ce rapport semble mettre l'accent sur le scénario le plus pessimiste envisagé pour la France à l'horizon 2100.
Réchauffement climatique : la bataille des 2 °C est presque perdue Les Nations unies sonnent l’alerte sur les efforts très insuffisants des Etats pour contenir le réchauffement. Après 2030, il sera trop tard. LE MONDE | • Mis à jour le | Par Pierre Le Hir La bataille du climat n’est pas encore perdue, mais elle est très mal engagée. A ce stade, il existe un « écart catastrophique » entre les engagements pris par les Etats pour réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre et les efforts nécessaires pour respecter l’accord de Paris adopté lors de la COP21, en décembre 2015 – à savoir contenir la hausse de la température planétaire « nettement en dessous de 2 °C par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels », en essayant de la limiter à 1,5 °C. Ce n’est pas la première alerte lancée par l’organisation, qui s’appuie sur un large réseau international de scientifiques. Un tiers du chemin On est donc très loin de la baisse drastique des émissions indispensable pour atteindre les objectifs de l’accord de Paris. « Opportunités »
What these historical kings and marauders can teach our leaders about climate change There are no two ways about it: Humankind is, for the first time in our recorded history, living through a massive global climate shift of our own making. Science paints today’s crisis as unprecedented in scope and consequence. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t historical cases of societies that have enjoyed the highs and endured the lows of natural climatic changes — from civilization-busting droughts to empire-building stretches of gorgeous sunshine. Whether they’re commanding marauding armies or struggling with dramatic temperature shifts, today’s leaders have a variety of historical role models they can learn from: Should Gov. Jerry Brown — confronted by California’s 500-year drought – be mindful of the policy mistakes made by the last Ming emperor? Will President Obama learn lessons from Ponhea Yat, the last king of the sacred city of Angkor Wat, when planning how to safeguard America’s critical infrastructure against extreme weather? Temperatures were at an all-time low.
2017 is officially one of the hottest years on record, surprising no one This story was originally published by Mother Jones and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. It’s official: 2017 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth. On Thursday, NASA reported that only 2016 was warmer. Every year, NASA collects data on the planet’s temperature record and releases a report that explains climate trends. Notably absent in 2017’s climbing temperatures was the presence of El Niño, a weather pattern that warms up the Pacific Ocean and contributed to 2016’s record-setting heat. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which also follows the Earth’s temperatures but uses a different method from NASA, concluded that 2017 was the third warmest year — after 2016 and 2015. This new data means that 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2001.
Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4°C by 2100 December 31, 2013. Source: Science Daily Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates. The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming. “Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation,” said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood. “When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher.
Cloud shortage will push temperatures higher as climate warms Climate scientists have looked to the heavens for help with their latest decades-long weather forecast. Their conclusion? “Oh, my god.” Science has long struggled to forecast how global temperatures will be affected by a doubling of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere compared with pre-industrial times, which looks likely to occur this century. Recent consensus suggests that temperatures will rise by between 1.5 and 5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 5.4 F). With a rise in CO2 levels to 400 parts per million, up from 280 in the 19th century, the world has warmed by nearly 1 C so far. By modeling how clouds will be affected by the rising temperatures, a team of Australian and French scientists reported Wednesday in Nature that they expect the temperature rise to be “more than 3 degrees” – at the upper end of the projected range. “4C would likely be catastrophic rather than simply dangerous,” the report’s lead author, Australian climate scientist Steven Sherwood, told the Guardian.
Les clés de l’accord climatique de 2015 On peut encore éviter un réchauffement de 4°C, estime l'AIE. L’Agence internationale de l’énergie propose des solutions techniques et politiques pour éviter rapidement l’émission de 3 milliards de tonnes de CO2. L’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) a toujours le chic pour choisir la date de publication de ses rapports. Ce matin 10 juin, alors que débute la seconde semaine du premier round annuel des négociations climatiques, à Bonn, l’agence de l’OCDE publie un opus sur les meilleures voies pour rester en deçà des 2°C. Car, si la communauté internationale n’est pas (encore) liée par un accord de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, elle s’est déjà fixé un objectif de réchauffement: pas plus de 2°C par rapport à l’ère pré-industrielle, d’ici la fin du siècle. Est-il besoin de rappeler que le but, gravé dans le marbre à Copenhague en 2009, n’est pas à portée de main? Et pour s’y tenir, les données sont connues. C’est pourtant techniquement possible, estiment les auteurs.
Scientists: Current international warming target is “disastrous” Ever since the 2009 climate talks in Copenhagen, world leaders have agreed on 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees F) as the maximum acceptable global warming above pre-industrial levels to avert the worst impacts of climate change (today we’re at about 0.8 degrees C). But a new study, led by climatologist James Hansen of Columbia University, argues that pollution plans aimed at that target would still result in “disastrous consequences,” from rampant sea-level rise to widespread extinction. A major goal of climate scientists since Copenhagen has been to convert the 2 degree limit into something useful for policymakers, namely, a specific total amount of carbon we can “afford” to dump into the atmosphere, mostly from burning fossil fuels in power plants (this is known as a carbon budget). “We should not use [2 degrees] as a target,” Hansen said in a meeting with reporters on the Columbia campus in Manhattan. This story was produced as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.