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The Acceleration of Acceleration: How The Future Is Arriving Far Faster Than Expected

The Acceleration of Acceleration: How The Future Is Arriving Far Faster Than Expected
The Acceleration of Acceleration: How The Future Is Arriving Far Faster Than Expected This article co-written with Ken Goffman. One of the things that happens when you write books about the future is you get to watch your predictions fail. This is nothing new, of course, but what’s different this time around is the direction of those failures. Used to be, folks were way too bullish about technology and way too optimistic with their predictions. Flying cars and Mars missions being two classic—they should be here by now—examples. But today, the exact opposite is happening. Take Abundance. And we were wrong. Just three years later, Google went on a buying spree, purchasing eight different robotics companies in less than six months, Amazon decided it was time to get into the drone delivery (aka flying robots) business, and Rethink Robotics released Baxter (a story explored in my new release Bold), the first user-friendly industrial robot to hit the market. Rethink Robotics Baxter robot. Related:  Exponential Change - Technological Singularity

Introducing the Singularity Q: So what is this “Technological Singularity” I keep hearing about? In the broadest sense it refers to “an event or phase brought about by technology that will radically change human civilization, and perhaps even human nature itself before the middle of the 21st century.”1 Think of it as the “tipping point” where the accelerating pace of machines outrun all human capabilities and result in a smarter-than-human intelligence. Q: Seriously? Yes. Q: Sounds like something out of a sci-fi novel… Well the term “technological singularity” was coined by Vernor Vinge, a professor of Mathematics who originally used the term in one of his sci-fi novels. In it, he writes: “Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Learn More His use of the term “singularity” stemmed from a mathematical concept where there exists a point at which output is not defined and expected rules break down. Vinge himself thought the Singularity could occur in four ways: 1. “1. 2.

Defining the Singularity Q: So you mentioned that there is no widely accepted view of what the Singularity is and what exactly is going to happen, is that correct? That’s correct, there is very little continuity regarding what exactly the term “Singularity” refers to. A brilliant AI researcher by the name of Eliezer Yudkowky has dissected and categorized these beliefs into three schools of thought: the Event Horizon Thesis, the Intelligence Explosion Thesis, and finally the Accelerating Change Thesis. Q: Well which school did Vernor Vinge fall into when he originally coined the term “Singularity”? He would fall under the Event Horizon school of thought. Now this could occur through either artificial intelligence or purely bio-hacking, but whatever occurs will allow us to create/obtain an intelligence that is greater than ours on a trans-species scale (think the difference between us and chimpanzees). Learn More Q: Could you provide me with an example? Now do you see what I mean by feedback cycle? Q: Yup, got it.

Technological singularity The technological singularity is the hypothesis that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing civilization in an event called the singularity.[1] Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavorable, or even unfathomable.[2] The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. Proponents of the singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion",[5][6] where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human. Basic concepts Superintelligence Non-AI singularity Intelligence explosion Exponential growth Plausibility

Singularitarianism Singularitarianism is a technocentric ideology and social movement defined by the belief that a technological singularity—the creation of superintelligence—will likely happen in the medium future, and that deliberate action ought to be taken to ensure that the Singularity benefits humans. Singularitarians are distinguished from other futurists who speculate on a technological singularity by their belief that the Singularity is not only possible, but desirable if guided prudently. Accordingly, they might sometimes dedicate their lives to acting in ways they believe will contribute to its rapid yet safe realization.[1] Some critics argue that Singularitarianism is a new religious movement promising salvation in a technological utopia.[3] Others are concerned that the interest in the Singularity by corporate and military interests provides a clue as to the real direction and social implication of emerging technologies celebrated by Singularitarians.[4] Etymology[edit] History[edit]

Singularity University’s GSP Class of 2014 Blasts Off to the Future Last week, Singularity University hosted the Closing Ceremony of its 2014 Graduate Studies Program, the pinnacle of an annual program that brought 80 entrepreneurs and visionaries from 35 countries to Silicon Valley for an intense 10-week crash course on exponential technologies and global grand challenges. Now in its sixth year, the event was a celebration of the participants’ commitment to solving the world’s greatest challenges, culminating in 21 team projects sure to produce viable companies that will positively impact a billion people worldwide. I had the opportunity to attend this sold-out event at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, which showcased the collective talents of the participants along with the dedication of all involved in making this year’s GSP a success. He added, “That’s what makes this institution special. Based on these criteria, the five teams selected to present during the ceremony included:

The Coming Technological Singularity ==================================================================== The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era Vernor Vinge Department of Mathematical Sciences San Diego State University (c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge (Verbatim copying/translation and distribution of this entire article is permitted in any medium, provided this notice is preserved.) This article was for the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. It is also retrievable from the NASA technical reports server as part of NASA CP-10129. A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of _Whole Earth Review_.

Accelerating change In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. While many have suggested accelerating change, the popularity of this theory in modern times is closely associated with various advocates of the technological singularity, such as Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil. Early theories[edit] In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development.[1] In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.[2] In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann: Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population

Evolution of evolvability Evolution of Evolvability This paper shows how evolution tunes the content and frequency of genetic variation to enhance its evolvability. Genetic evolution is not random or entirely blind. Genetic systems are like nervous systems and brains—they have been structured and organised by evolution to enhance their ability to discover effective adaptations. (For a more general approach to the evolution of evolvability, see Chapters 8 to 12 inclusive of the on-line book Evolution's Arrow. It examines in detail how evolution itself has evolved. (a final version of this paper was published in the Journal of Social and Evolutionary Systems (1997) 20: 53-73.) The cognitive ability of a genetic system is its capacity to discover and perpetuate beneficial adaptations. Cognitive ability will be influenced by genetic arrangements which affect the range and types of variant genotypes which are produced and trialed within the genetic system. Are genetic arrangements which have these features feasible?

The future of technology will "pale" the previous 20 years Infinity Point Will Arrive by 2035 Latest Eray Ozkural December 23, 2013 During writing a paper for the 100 Year Starship Symposium, I wished to convince the starship designers that they should acknowledge the dynamics of high-technology economy, which may be crucial for interstellar missions. Thus motivated, I have made a new calculation regarding infinity point, also known as the singularity. According to this most recent revision of the theory of infinity point, it turns out that we should expect Infinity Point by 2035 in the worst case. Here is how and why. Infinity Point was the original name for the hypothetical event when almost boundless amount of intelligence would be available in Solomonoff's original research in 1985 (1), who is also the founder of mathematical Artificial Intelligence (AI) field. The original theory arrives at the Infinity Point conclusion by making a few simple mathematical assumptions, and solving a system of equations. and the total number of synapses is less than . Onwards to the future! References: