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Mathematical and Quantitative Papers. A mixture of my lectures, & musings when I am bored, ranging from probability theory & quantitative finance to computational epistemology. Collected Published Papers (in One Volume) New Paper on Errors Aims of the lectures: In short, statistics without being an idiot savant. · Pre- asymptotics (all that happens takes place outside the limit), · Inverse Problems (many models can explain the same phenomena), and · Platonicities (the reduction of the fool) are the same illness under different symptoms. Probability theory does not have to be Platonic. You can go from empiricism to formalism --looking for inverse problems and sensitivity to error in the choice of model.

Lecture 1 – Platonic convergence & the Central Limit Theorem. Lecture 2 - Preasymptotics & Small Sample Effects of α ≤1 or Saint Petersburgh -Style Infinite First Moment Situations. Lecture 3 - The fundamental problem of the 0th moment and the irrelevance of "naked probability" Lecture 6 - Option Pricing & True Fat tails. Black swan theory. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Background[edit] Taleb asserts:[8] Based on the author's criteria: Behavioral Economics. Behavioural Economics Applied. Behavioural Economics. Behavioural Economics / Finance. Absolute beginners: behavioural economics and human happiness.

Herd Behaviour. AS & A2 Economics - Intensive Exam Coaching & Revision Workshops: Book Now! Stratford | Fulham | Bristol | Birmingham | Gateshead | Leeds | Manchester Monday, November 28, 2011 PrintEmailTweet This! Save to Favorites Professor Andrew Oswald from the University of Warwick delivered a pitch-perfect lecture on the significance of herd behaviour in his talk at the LSE tonight. Why has the Economics discipline been so tawdry in understanding better some of the Biology and Psychology behind the behaviour of groups? Herding is associated with behavioural traits such as copying, clustering, imitating and conformity. Paul Ormerod makes some revealing and instructive comments on copying in this excellent video from a recent RSA talk. One of Oswald’s arguments is that in the majority of circumstances, our natural, perhaps sub-conscious instincts to herd serve us well.

It turns out that your relative position in the crowd matters a lot! Have a look at your wrists! Why does herding behaviour matter? Your Decisions Are Irrational--And You Don't Realize It‬‏ Economics +Data.