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Il est courant aujourd’hui de penser que dans le domaine des systèmes complexes, la prévision est un exercice impossible. Triste constat de défaite, car la plupart des problèmes qui se posent aujourd’hui (économie, écologie, mentalités) entrent dans cette catégorie. Aussi est-il intéressant de constater que certains chercheurs (qui, loin d’ignorer les lois de la complexité, travaillent dans ce domaine) n’ont pas baissé les bras et tentent de trouver les moyens de prédire ces systèmes, voire d’agir sur eux. Ainsi, nous explique la BBC , certains cherchent aujourd’hui à créer un “simulateur de monde” (baptisé le Life Earth Simulator , ou LES) combinant l’ensemble des données transports, économie, émigration, environnement, santé, etc. Le LES n’est d’ailleurs qu’une partie du gigantesque projet européen mené par l’Institut de technologie de Zurich, FuturICT qui se définit comme un “accélérateur de connaissance”, équivalent social d’un “accélérateur de particules” comme le LHC en physique.
Complexity economics is the application of complexity science to the problems of economics . It studies computer simulations to gain insight into economic dynamics, and avoids the assumption that the economy is a system in equilibrium. [ 1 ] [ edit ] Models
Complex systems present problems in mathematical modelling . Complex systems is a new approach to science that studies how relationships between parts give rise to the collective behaviors of a system and how the system interacts and forms relationships with its environment. The equations from which complex system models are developed generally derive from statistical physics , information theory and non-linear dynamics , and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of systems of nature that are considered fundamentally complex .
Complex adaptive systems are special cases of complex systems , often defined as a 'complex macroscopic collection' of relatively 'similar and partially connected micro-structures' – formed in order to adapt to the changing environment, and increase its survivability as a macro-structure . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] They are complex ; in that they are dynamic networks of interactions , and their relationships are not aggregations of the individual static entities. They are adaptive ; in that the individual and collective behavior mutate and self-organize corresponding to the change-initiating micro-event or collection of events. [ 1 ] [ 2 ]
Systemtheorie ist ein interdisziplinäres Erkenntnismodell , in dem Systeme zur Beschreibung und Erklärung unterschiedlich komplexer Phänomene herangezogen werden. Systemtheorien gehen häufig von kohärenten, sich selbst erhaltenden Einheiten wie etwa "Gesellschaft", "Justiz" oder "Haushalt" aus und erklären die beobachteten Phänomene durch die Verortung des Phänomens innerhalb der Einheit. So erklärt ein systemtheoretischer Ansatz das Handeln von Individuen nicht durch Bewertungen desselben (wie "böse", "rational" o.ä.), sondern durch dessen Position in der "Gesellschaft" und die sich daraus ergebenden sozialen Zwänge.
Interview mit Eric D. Beinhocker, Senior Fellow am McKinsey Global Institute und Autor von "Die Entstehung des Wohlstands", über die Komplexitätsökonomie, die mit Hilfe der Evolutionstheorie die Entstehung und Vermehrung von Wohlstand erklärt. Wie kam die moderne Wirtschaftswissenschaft dazu, naturwissenschaftliche Ideen aufzugreifen? Beinhocker: Die Initialzündung für ein interdisziplinäres Arbeiten erfolgte im Jahr 1987 bei einem Workshop im Santa Fe Institute (SFI) in New Mexico, an dem führende Ökonomen und Naturwissenschaftler teilnahmen.
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J. Doyne Farmer (born 1952) is an American physicist and entrepreneur , with interests in chaos theory , complexity and econophysics . He is a former professor at the Santa Fe Institute and member of Eudaemonic Enterprises.
Samuel Bowles (born 1939) is an American economist and Professor Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts Amherst , where he continues to teach courses on microeconomics and the theory of institutions. [ 1 ] His work belongs to the Neo-Marxian [ 2 ] [ 3 ] [ 4 ] (variably called Post-Marxian) [ 5 ] [ 6 ] [ 7 ] tradition of economic thought; however, his perspective on economics is eclectic and draws on various schools of thought, including what he (and others) refer to as post-Walrasian economics . [ 8 ] [ edit ] Biography Bowles, the son of US Ambassador and Connecticut Governor Chester Bowles , [ 9 ] graduated with a B.A. from Yale University in 1960, where he was a founding member of the Yale Russian Chorus , participating in their early tours of the Soviet Union. Subsequently, he received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 1965.
The Austrian School of economics is a school of economic thought which bases its study of economic phenomena on the interpretation and analysis of the purposeful actions of individuals . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] [ 4 ] It derives its name from its origin in late-19th and early-20th century Vienna with the work of Carl Menger , Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk , Friedrich von Wieser , and others. [ 5 ] Currently, adherents of the Austrian School can come from any part of the world, but they are often referred to as "Austrian economists" or "Austrians" and their work as "Austrian economics". Among the contributions of the Austrian School to economic theory are the subjective theory of value , marginalism in price theory, and the formulation of the economic calculation problem . [ 6 ]
Institutional economics focuses on understanding the role of the evolutionary process and the role of institutions in shaping economic behaviour. Its original focus lay in Thorstein Veblen 's instinct-oriented dichotomy between technology on the one side and the "ceremonial" sphere of society on the other. Its name and core elements trace back to a 1919 American Economic Review article by Walton H.
Evolutionary economics is part of mainstream economics [ 1 ] as well as a heterodox school of economic thought that is inspired by evolutionary biology . Much like mainstream economics , it stresses complex interdependencies , competition , growth , structural change , and resource constraints but differs in the approaches which are used to analyze these phenomena. [ 2 ] Evolutionary economics deals with the study of processes that transform economy for firms, institutions, industries, employment, production, trade and growth within, through the actions of diverse agents from experience and interactions, using evolutionary methodology. Evolutionary economics analyses the unleashing of a process of technological and institutional innovation by generating and testing a diversity of ideas which discover and accumulate more survival value for the costs incurred than competing alternatives.
Behavioral economics and the related field, behavioral finance , study the effects of social, cognitive , and emotional factors on the economic decisions of individuals and institutions and the consequences for market prices , returns , and the resource allocation . The fields are primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic agents . Behavioral models typically integrate insights from psychology with neo-classical economic theory ; in so doing, these behavioral models cover a range of concepts, methods, and fields. [ 1 ] The study of behavioral economics includes how market decisions are made and the mechanisms that drive public choice , such as biases towards promoting self-interest. There are three prevalent themes in behavioral finances: [ 2 ] Heuristics : People often make decisions based on approximate rules of thumb and not strict logic.
Recherche Systèmes complexes
Complexity and Information
#Finance Complex Adaptive System