Book review. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page. 10 principles for Black Swan proof world. Taleb distribution. The term describes dangerous or flawed trading strategies. The Taleb distribution is named after Nassim Taleb, based on ideas outlined in his Fooled by Randomness.[1] More detailed and formal discussion of the bets on small probability events is in the academic essay by Taleb, called "Why Did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? " and in the 2004 paper in the Journal of Behavioral Finance called "Why Do We Prefer Asymmetric Payoffs?
" in which he writes "agents risking other people’s capital would have the incentive to camouflage the properties by showing a steady income. Intuitively, hedge funds are paid on an annual basis while disasters happen every four or five years, for example. The fund manager does not repay his incentive fee. "[2] Criticism of trading strategies[edit] Pursuing a trading strategy with a Taleb distribution yields a high probability of steady returns for a time, but with a near certainty of eventual ruin. Risky strategy[edit] "Innocent fraud"[edit] Moral hazard[edit] Risks[edit] SocGen & Black Swan. Financial Black Swan - October 08. Example of Black Swan on money market. Further results on Money Market.
Third Wave of Accessibility. Raghuram Rajan Is My Guru Now... - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping. Milton Friedman became lord king guru of the world's economists by standing up at the end of 1966 and warning everybody that the high-pressure economics of the Kennedy-Johnson administration was about to make inflation a real problem.
Raghuram Rajan stood up in 2005 and warned everybody that increased financial complexity had made the world's financial markets riskier places. He is now my guru--along with Michael Mussa. Justin Lahart tells the story: Mr. Rajan Was Unpopular (But Prescient) at Greenspan Party: o outline his fears about the U.S. economy, Raghuram Rajan picked a tough crowd. L'entreprise et les cygnes noirs - MANAGEMENT. An interview with the author of The Black Swan - McKinsey Quarte. Economists Who Did Their Homework (800 Years of It) - NYTimes.co.