Scenarios. This scenario development process is based on the following principles: The highly prepared meeting.
We interviewed a wide variety of people including all the participants in the first workshop ahead of time in order to understand the issues facing the Park and to solicit ideas about important actions, investments, changes in law and regulation, etc. that would be necessary for “good futures” to transpire. In this way, the participants were presented with a lot of ideas to work with and spent relatively little time getting started.Two-part definition of scenario.
In this approach a scenario is divided into the endstate or outcome statement at the planning horizon (in this case 25 years from now) and a series of events that must occur or must not occur that lead us from the present to that outcome. For this project, we wrote six endstates and over 120 events based on the interviews and other research. Like this: Like Loading... Www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/3b-Backcasting.pdf. Backcasting. HSC Toolkit - Backcasting (SAT) Why use it?
Describing a preferred future. Setting out the steps to make it happen. Technique overview Expertise: Time horizon: Linked techniques: The Fifth scenario, Plausibility matrix, Visioning, Scenarios. Backcasting 101. Ingredients of Transition: Backcasting. 15 Nov 2010 Ingredients of Transition: Backcasting Context: (We are collecting and discussing these Transition ingredients on Transition Network’s website to keep all comments in one place.
Please leave feedback and comments, suggestions for alternative pictures, anecdotes, stories and projects for this ingredient here). The challenge: Creating a vision of the future is all very well, but could well become an enjoyable but rather abstract dreaming exercise if it is not also accompanied by a process of backcasting. Core Text Backcasting is a straightforward idea, one which follows on naturally from the process of visioning. For example, if by 2018, 50% of any new buildings in a community are proposed to include 50% local materials, backcasting is very useful in terms of identifying what would need to be done by when, in order for this to be a possibility. . • By when would the infrastructure for processing locally grown hemp need to be in place? Why Backcasting Can Help Us See the Pathway to a Sustainable Future. Image credit: WTL Photos, used under Creative Commons license.
I've never liked vision statements. All too often they smack of wishful thinking and fantasy. Yet the environmental movement is rife with them. As I have argued many times before, the green movement needs a concrete plan, and that plan needs to embrace strategic thinking. Transition in Action, Totnes 2030, an Energy Descent Action Plan. Vol 43, Iss 7, Pgs 639-724, (September, 2011) Horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk/ViewDocument_Image.aspx?Doc_ID=190. Www.vibat.org/vibat_uk/pdf/vibatuk_stage1.pdf.