Putting crowd wisdom to work. Posted by Bo Cowgill, Project Manager At Google, we're constantly trying to find new ways to organize the world's information, including information relevant to our business. Building on the ideas of Friedrich Hayek and the Iowa Electronic Markets, a few Googlers (Doug Banks, Patri Friedman, Ilya Kirnos, Piaw Na and me, with some help from Hal Varian), set up a predictive market system inside the company. The markets were designed to forecast product launch dates, new office openings, and many other things of strategic importance to Google. So far, more than a thousand Googlers have bid on 146 events in 43 different subject areas (no payment is required to play). We designed the market so that the price of an event should, in theory, reflect a consensus probability that the event will occur.
In the graph below, the X-axis indicates the price ranges for the group. Being geeks, we naturally used information theory to measure the entropy of our probability distributions: Technology Review: The Authority on the Future of Technology. Learning From Technology Foresight Connections - scenario planning, scenarios, change drivers, S&T, trends, mental models.
"The future cannot be predicted, but it can be invented. " Dennis Gabor Abstract Since 2002, the Office of Technology Foresight (OTF) at the National Research Council has been developing networks of knowledge, interest and influence to provide new strategic capabilities for Canada's S&T organizations. Each step of this process has involved some iterative learning and tools refinement. In the course of this work, which has involved over 350 S&T professionals and teamwork in the design, creation and adaptation of foresight techniques, templates and methods, the OTF has succeeded in creating a web of affiliated professionals working to further Canada's broader S&T strategy.
As an example, work in BioSystemics foresight during 2002/2003 led to the development of an extended network of experts to create an information architecture and a foresight project in 2004 on Bio-Health Innovation and Stewardship. Introduction World of Change and Surprise Project Origins Step 1 - Topic Submission and Ranking.