Game theory
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Sur les bords de terrains de sport, les commentaires affluent, quelle que soit l’activité concernée, afin d’expliquer les comportements et, prioritairement, les résultats des acteurs en présence. Dans ce domaine, les aspects psychologiques occupent une place de choix. En effet, leur appartenance au « royaume » de l’impalpable nous autorise à nous adonner librement au jeu des interprétations, chacun y allant de son idée pour justifier la réussite des uns et les échecs des autres. Parmi les formules récurrentes employées, nous pouvons souligner la fameuse opposition entre « jouer pour ne pas perdre » et « jouer pour gagner ».
Jouer pour ne pas perdre ou jouer pour gagner : une question de perfectionnisme? | Fortes têtes
Un article de Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. La théorie des jeux est un ensemble d'outils pour analyser les situations dans lesquelles ce qu'il est optimal de faire pour un agent (personne physique, entreprise, animal, ...) dépend des anticipations qu'il forme sur ce qu'un ou plusieurs autres agents vont faire. L'objectif de la théorie des jeux est de modéliser ces situations, de déterminer une stratégie optimale pour chacun des agents, de prédire l'équilibre du jeu et de trouver comment aboutir à une situation optimale. La théorie des jeux est très souvent utilisée en économie , en sciences politiques , en biologie ou encore en philosophie .
Théorie des jeux - Wikipédia
Kerckhoffs's Principle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In cryptography , Kerckhoffs's principle (also called Kerckhoffs's Desiderata , Kerckhoffs's assumption , axiom , or law ) was stated by Auguste Kerckhoffs in the 19th century: A cryptosystem should be secure even if everything about the system, except the key , is public knowledge. Kerckhoffs's principle was reformulated (perhaps independently) by Claude Shannon as "The enemy knows the system."Bringing Down the House (book) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six MIT Students Who Took Vegas for Millions is a book by Ben Mezrich about a group of MIT card counters commonly known as the MIT Blackjack Team . While represented as non-fiction by Mezrich and Free Press , the book contains significant fictional elements. Many of the key events propelling the drama did not occur in real life; others were exaggerated greatly. [ 1 ] The book was adapted into the movie 21 .
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Therefore, to maximize the geometric return M, we need to find F such that the Product Sum of (1+Wi*F)^Pi for all i is maximized. Unfortunately, there is no simple formular that can compute the Kelly Criterion for multiple possible outcomes. Fortunately, with the aid of computer, I constructed an optimization model that will find the Kelly Criterion for you.
Advance Stock Pattern Scanner -- Kelly Criterion For Investors
I haven't checked the r.g.* FAQ, so this may be redundant, but since you asked, I'll give as simplified a version as I can. I'll only show details of the easy math, while glossing over the calculus, so non-math types can (hopefully) follow along.
Kelly criterion (long, but give it a chance!) ;-) - rec.gambling.poker | Google Groups
Either simultaneous independent events (as in several distinct games) or mutually exclusive outcomes (as in a single event that can have one of several winners, e.g., a horse race or the American Idol competition). The number of times that this set of bets is to be sequentially repeated. This is included in order to determine expected and median bankrolls over multiple trials. (For example, if the user expects that every Sunday he'll have 5 betting opportunities and wanted to determine bankroll expectations over the course of a 17-week NFL season, he'd set "# Independent Events" to 5 and "Consecutive Series" to 17). Kelly Multiplier:
Kelly Calculator | Betting Tools
Proebsting's paradox - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In probability theory , Proebsting's paradox is an argument that appears to show that the Kelly criterion can lead to ruin. Although it can be resolved mathematically, it raises some interesting issues about the practical application of Kelly, especially in investing. It was named and first discussed by Edward O. Thorp in 2008 . [ 1 ] times wealth. [ 2 ] For example, if a 50/50 bet pays 2 to 1, Kelly says to bet 25% of wealth. If a 50/50 bet pays 5 to 1, Kelly says to bet 40% of wealth.
Statistical inference might be thought of as gambling theory applied to the world around. The myriad applications for logarithmic information measures tell us precisely how to take the best guess in the face of partial information. [ 1 ] In that sense, information theory might be considered a formal expression of the theory of gambling. It is no surprise, therefore, that information theory has applications to games of chance . [ 2 ] [ edit ] Kelly Betting
Gambling and information theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In probability theory , the Kelly criterion , or Kelly strategy or Kelly formula , or Kelly bet , is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. In most gambling scenarios, and some investing scenarios under some simplifying assumptions, the Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the long run. It was described by J. L. Kelly, Jr , in a 1956 issue of the Bell System Technical Journal . [ 1 ] Edward O. Thorp demonstrated the practical use of the formula in a 1961 address to the American Mathematical Society [ 2 ] and later in his books Beat the Dealer [ 3 ] (for gambling) and Beat the Market [ 4 ] (with Sheen Kassouf, for investing).