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The big reason why retirees should cut down on stocks in portfolios. Vanguard ETF list.

Emerging Markets Strategy

How To Retire At 62 On A Meager Million. How can I ever retire? Many older workers grapple with this question every day. Often, they turn to Seeking Alpha for answers. Today, retirees need a clear plan for their future. The ideal plan would incorporate expected future cash flows throughout a longer period than the retiree expects to live. Social Security is helpful, but let’s face the facts. They are stuck paying more for each service they consume and consuming more services per year on average: Photo source Let’s make a plan for retirement We will start with a portfolio of $1,000,000. Social Security Each investor will have a different expectation for annual income from Social Security.

When an investor can afford to wait before taking Social Security, it is generally a good move. If the investor expects to live past their low 80s, delaying Social Security is a wise choice. Delaying Social Security by racking up credit card debt is a terrible idea unless the investor’s plan includes a complex bankruptcy scheme. Evaluate your debts.


Does the 4% Retirement Spending Rule Still Hold Up—And Where Do Rentals Fit in? Personal finance nerds (like myself) spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about retirement. How much do you need? How can you ensure that you don’t run out of money in retirement? What’s the fastest way to get there, and does fast also mean safe? For the last 20 years, the 4% rule (a.k.a. the 25X rule) has been something of an industry standard. At the very least, it’s been a shorthand to use as a reference point. But for all its simplicity, how “true” is it? Is it even still relevant in today’s economic environment?

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. How Did the 4% Rule Come About? Back in the ‘90s, financial advisor Bill Bengen introduced the idea of the “4% rule.” On the simplest level, it makes sense. The other way of thinking about this rule is by its other name, the 25X rule. How Does the 4% Rule Hold up in Today’s World? First, consider the simplest problem at all: What if you live for more than 30 years after retiring? Of course not. That T. See what happened there? Pre-retirement financial jitters? Here's what to do. Indeed, just yesterday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped by 1.54 percent after the terrorist attack in Barcelona, Spain, that killed 14 people and injured more than 100.

The tech-laden Nasdaq was down close to 2 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average fell about 1.2 percent. Yet for the year, the S&P — considered a broad measure of the market — is up more than 8.5 percent through yesterday's close, despite several corrections along the way. The country also is in the midst of the second longest-running bull market in history. The S&P has been climbing for more than eight years, with just four corrections along the way of 10 percent or more (but less than 20 percent) since then, according to Yardeni Research. In fact, through yesterday's closing, the index had gained 259 percent since its low in March 2009. However, markets go in cycles. The 7 Best Stocks to Survive a Chaotic Next Few Months. If you thought the market turbulence created by political turmoil was starting to wind down, think again. We’ve only seen the beginning of it.

With months of pent-up frustration from both sides of the political aisle just now starting to be unleashed, it could be months before anyone is comfortable enough to start making long-term trades again. That indecision is inherently volatile for stocks. Source: Shutterstock Then there’s the not-so-small matter of the nation’s debt ceiling. With that as the backdrop, here are the seven best stocks to consider if you’re just looking to shield yourself from the looming volatility but don’t want to get out of the market altogether. Best Stocks for Survival: Southern (SO) It’s admittedly an obvious, almost-cliche approach to hunkering down for wave of uncertainty for stocks, but the defensive nature of utility stocks makes them some of the best stocks to own when things could get hairy. Best Stocks for Survival: Northrop Grumman (NOC) The 7 Best Mutual Funds to Hold in a 401k Plan. The best mutual funds for 401k plans are generally index funds with low expense ratios and actively managed funds with good long-term track records.

Source: Shutterstock The biggest players in the employer-sponsored-plan business also happen to be the providers of the best mutual funds for long-term investors in general — Vanguard, Fidelity and American Funds. If some or all of your 401k mutual funds come from one of the big three fund companies, or some combination thereof, you’re probably in pretty good shape. But there are a few outstanding, lesser-known companies that offer some fantastic mutual funds for 401k plans as well. With these key points in mind, we’ve highlighted the best mutual funds to look for in a 401k plan.Note: In 401k plans, assets are held at the trust level.

Best Mutual Funds for a 401k Plan: Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) Best Mutual Funds for a 401k Plan: American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX) 7 Companies Warren Buffett Should Buy Now. Half and half - playing market cycles - 7 Circles. Today we’re going to look at a paper from Crestmont Research called Half and half. Crestmont Research Crestmont Research is a financial research and market education firm which also manages a fund of hedge funds. It focuses on niche mid-sized, long-biased equity funds mostly in Texas. The company was founded by Ed Easterling, who is the author of two books: Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market InsightsUnexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles Ed is a professor at Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University, where he developed and presented the course on Hedge Fund Investment Management. Half and half Ed’s paper is about stock market cycles, and how to adjust your investment approach so as to enhance your returns.

Ed feels that the investment approach that was successful in the 1980s and 90s (a secular bull market) was not successful in the 1970s or since 2000 (secular bear markets). Secular bull and bear markets A secular bull market is a long-term uptrend. Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives. Note: This update incorporates the latest monthly close and the GDP Q2 Advance Estimate data. Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. " The four valuation indicators we track in our monthly valuation overview offer a long-term perspective of well over a century. The raw data for the "Buffett indicator" only goes back as far as the middle of the 20th century. Quarterly GDP dates from 1947, and the Fed's balance sheet has quarterly updates beginning in Q4 1951.

With an acknowledgment of this abbreviated timeframe, let's take a look at the plain vanilla quarterly ratio with no effort to interpolate monthly data. The Latest Data The denominator in the charts below now includes the Advance Estimate of Q2 GDP. How Well do the Two Views Match? Detrending the Data.