Black Swan Theory

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Risk Management - Black Swan Theory etc

Wiki Leaks

A black swan , a member of the species Cygnus atratus The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that an event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight .

Black swan theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Probability theory does not have to be Platonic. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/quant.html

Mathematical and Quantitative Papers

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm

Opacity

(A philosophical notebook. I only put stuff here from my work in progresss.

Nassim N. Taleb Home & Professional Page

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ Why Short Term Fat Tails Means Long Term Fat Tails (debunking illusions of "central limit theorem"; a (technical) reply to Treynor's "What can Taleb Learn From Markowitz?")