Climate Shocks and Food Security in Horn of Africa. Drought Baking the Southern United States. [Updated 9/15: La Nina conditions have developed since this article was published.] An intense drought has gripped the southern tier of the United States for several months, accompanied by destructive wildfires, low water supplies, and failed crops. Dry conditions emerged as early as October of last year and culminated in one of the driest winter and spring seasons in the observed record for the region. At the peak of this year’s drought in July, “exceptional” drought conditions were spread across nearly 12 percent of the U.S., from Arizona to Florida, reaching the highest recorded level of drought since the US Drought Monitor began reporting conditions 12 years ago.
As of August 31 , just over 11 percent of the contiguous United States was experiencing exceptional drought. (Related image: July 2011 drought map.) Texas and Oklahoma have been particularly hard hit. Farmers and ranchers throughout the region rely upon rain and green pastures for producing crops and raising livestock. Extreme Drought in South Shrinks Water Supplies. The Texas AgriLife Extension Service estimates that extreme drought conditions have led to a record $5.2 billion in agricultural losses , a number that surpassed the $4.1 billion record set in 2006. Due to the lack of water, grass, and hay, many in the cattle industry are selling or thinning their own herds, or paying extremely high prices for livestock feeds.
Otherwise, they risk watching the animals starve. Ponds that were built to hold significant amounts of water for cattle are dwindling away under the hot temperatures, dry winds, and lack of rain. Many ponds, such as the one shown above in Rusk County, Texas, were nearly dry by late June 2011. For more on climate conditions in summer 2011, see Drought in the Southern United States. Texas AgriLife Extension Service photo by Robert Burns. Related Links: AgriLife Extension Service Agricultural Drought Task Force Extreme Drought in South Shrinks Water Supplies , 4.8 out of 5 based on 6 ratings. Texas & Southwest See Fraction of Normal Rainfall. In South, Some Drought Relief from Tropical Storm Lee. Brazos River Runs Dry During Texas Drought. 2010 Global Temps: January-June & July-December. 2010 Began with El Niño, Ended with La Niña. Climate Patterns & 2010 Temperatures.
Southern Drought Tests Cattle Industry. Throughout the South, most farmers and ranchers rely on rain-fed (rather than irrigated) pastures and croplands to feed their livestock. Food from these sources becomes increasingly scarce during drought, so some ranchers buy supplemental livestock feed like the protein cubes that cows are eating in this photo. Texas has never experienced so little rain prior to and during the primary growing season as the state did in late 2010 and early 2011. As the drought continued through summer, pastures turned brown and dry, and prices for protein cubes and hay increased. In order to avoid losing money, some ranchers reduced their herds to minimal populations or sold them altogether. For more on the dry conditions in summer 2011, see Drought in the Southern United States. Texas AgriLife Extension Service photo by Robert Burns.
Related Links: AgriLife Extension Service Agricultural Drought Task Force Southern Drought Tests Cattle Industry , 5.0 out of 5 based on 7 ratings. Arctic Oscillation Left Its Mark on N. Hemisphere 2010 Temps. Annual Migration of Tropical Rain Belt. Torrential Rains in Thailand. Wind Turbines Churn the Air over the North Sea. ClimateWatch Magazine. 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook. NOAA’s CSI Team Investigates Tornado Outbreak. Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content. Copy of Another Wintry Winter for the Eastern U.S. Winter Temperatures Influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation, La Niña. Ranking This Winter’s Eastern Storms. March 2011 Ice Extent Second Lowest on Record. Long Distance Relationships: the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations.
The New Climate Normals: Gardeners Expect Warmer Nights. Drought Spurs Texas Wildfires. Extreme drought conditions sparked the worst fire season in Texas history this year. Since the beginning of wildfire season in fall 2010, Texas has seen 16,368 fires and close to 3.5 million acres (14,163.99 square kilometers) have burned. For many, Independence Day fireworks were out of the question because of fire bans.
And yet it might have been worse. Back in November 2010, NOAA issued a long-range forecast warning of the likelihood of extreme drought conditions that would lead to a high fire risk. The advance notice of the wildfire threat allowed state fire managers in Texas and the surrounding states enough time to assess their fire risk, assets, and resources. The photo above shows the view from an aircraft carrying fire retardant as it follows a U.S. Department of Agriculture plane serving as a guide. For more on dry conditions in summer 2011, see Drought in the Southern United States.
U.S. Drought Spurs Texas Wildfires , 4.8 out of 5 based on 8 ratings. Fall 2011 Precipitation Outlook for U.S. After enduring months of drought and baking summer heat, residents of the Southwest and Southern Plains will hardly be excited about the fall 2011 temperature and precipitation outlooks. The precipitation outlook for September–November 2011 from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates an increased probability for significantly below normal precipitation across half of Arizona, all of New Mexico, and most of Texas.
(“Significantly below normal” means “within the bottom third” of observed precipitation for an area in a particular season.) The map above shows NOAA’s precipitation outlook for September-November 2011. Blue-green shaded areas are places where precipitation is likely to be significantly above normal, while yellow areas are places likely to experience significantly below-normal precipitation. Moving from the outer edge of the shaded area to the interior, percentages indicate increasing probability of the predicted pattern. Ocean Acidification, Today and in the Future. ClimateWatch Magazine. Drought Outlook, September-November 2011. On September 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an updated fall drought outlook for September through November 2011.
Shown in the map above, the outlook provided little hope that the extreme and exceptional drought that has parched much of the southern United States throughout the summer would weaken significantly. Drought is expected to persist and expand from the Southwest eastward into the interior Southeast by the end of November. Reddish-brown indicates areas where drought is likely to persist or worsen. Areas of tan indicate where drought is likely to persist but see some improvement, and darker green indicates areas where drought is likely to improve and its impacts ease.
Light green indicates places where drought conditions are likely to develop. The NOAA seasonal drought outlooks are based on numerous climate and weather indicators, including the official precipitation outlooks, various medium- and short-range forecasts, soil moisture tools, and climatology statistics. Exceptional Drought Widespread in July 2011. Since late 2010, much of the southernmost United States has been suffering through drought.
In July, when the drought was at its peak, severe drought conditions extended from Arizona to Florida. The resulting impacts have been devastating, shrinking water supplies for cattle and crops, and contributing to huge agricultural losses. The color-coded, drought classification map above shows exceptional drought conditions covering nearly 12 percent of the contiguous United States. The more severe the drought, the darker the red. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, the July percentage is the highest recorded level of drought since the U.S. For more on the dry conditions in summer 2011, see Drought in the Southern United States. Map by Hunter Allen, based on data from the U.S. Exceptional Drought Widespread in July 2011 , 4.3 out of 5 based on 7 ratings.
Fall 2011 Temperature Outlook. For much of the United States, summer 2011 was sweltering, and the outlook for fall is not a cool one. The most recent seasonal outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates an increased probability that temperatures will be significantly above normal (in the upper third of the temperature record for a given location and season) across much of the United States. Red shaded areas are places where temperature is likely to be above normal. Moving from the outer edge of the shaded area to the interior, percentages indicate increasing probability that an area will experience temperatures in the top third of recorded temperatures for the season. Unfortunately, among the states with the greatest likelihood of significant warmth are Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, where a months-long drought and record-breaking heat have already dried out water supplies and parched crops and pastures.
Map by Hunter Allen, based on three-month outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Satellites Critical for Drought Monitoring in East Africa.