Carl Sagan. Personnes intuitives: 10 choses qu'elles font différemment des autres. The Huffington Post | Par Carolyn Gregoire Il est difficile de spécifier l’intuition, malgré le rôle primordial qu’elle joue dans la vie de tous les jours.
Steve Jobs disait que l’intuition est « plus puissante que l’intellect. » Mais quelque soit la façon dont on la définit, nous savons tous, intuitivement, ce que c’est. On a tous déjà plus ou moins eu une intuition – ce raisonnement inconscient qui nous pousse à agir sans qu’on sache pourquoi ou comment. Digital tools I use for work. ALE 2011 Dave Snowden. A simple explanation of the Cynefin Framework. Visual Mapping. Trusted Search Engines For Scientific and Academic Research. Flipped Classroom. 6 thinking hats. Research Nodes. Google Tips, Tricks & Hacks.
General Teaching Resources. Innovation. Search Engines & Directories. Personal development. Making quizzes and worksheets. Theories of Learning. Dictionaries & Thesauri. Educational Video Resources. MINDMAPPING. CS edu & refs... Complex adaptive systems. Deep_Web. Searching. Knowledge. Online Tools, Gadgets & Reference. Thinking. Web 2.0 Tools. Machine learning. Video resources. Flipped Learning. Ludic fallacy. It is a central argument in the book and a rebuttal of the predictive mathematical models used to predict the future – as well as an attack on the idea of applying naïve and simplified statistical models in complex domains.
According to Taleb, statistics works only in some domains like casinos in which the odds are visible and defined. Taleb's argument centers on the idea that predictive models are based on platonified forms, gravitating towards mathematical purity and failing to take some key ideas into account: It is impossible to be in possession of all the information.Very small unknown variations in the data could have a huge impact. Taleb does differentiate his idea from that of mathematical notions in chaos theory, e.g. the butterfly effect.Theories/models based on empirical data are flawed, as they cannot predict events that have never happened before, but have tremendous impact, e.g., the 911 terrorist attacks, the invention of the automobile, etc.
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