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Радиостанция "Эхо Москвы" / Блоги. Pavel Baev's Blog - PRIO. Russian strategic nuclear forces. After the release of the last START data exchange in 2009 it has become rather difficult to get a good breakdown of the numbers of deployed launchers and warheads - the aggregate New START numbers leave too much room for uncertainty.

Russian strategic nuclear forces

Still, it's been a while wince the last update, so it is time a new attempt to make sense of the New START numbers. According to the most recent data exchange, as of 1 September 2013 Russia had 1400 warheads associated with 473 deployed launchers. It is 19 launchers and 80 warheads less than in March 2013 - quite a significant drop. It's hard to get the structure of the strategic forces working back from these two numbers, so I'll try to start with what we know about deployed systems and then see if the numbers match (although I know that they don't). The bombers, with all the uncertainty, don't affect the final numbers much. There is more information about submarines, as they are relatively easy to count. Russian Military Reform. The Power Vertical. Every time Vladimir Putin opens his mouth, the goalposts seem to move. After speaking with the Kremlin leader by telephone this week, Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Dzhemilev said Putin told him that Ukraine's 1991 independence referendum -- and therefore the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union -- was "not really legal.

" The Russian president's comment, which spread like wildfire on social media, could not be independently confirmed. But given that Putin has called the Soviet breakup the "greatest tragedy of the 20th century," it certainly seemed plausible. And it served as as the latest reminder that with the Crimean crisis, we have entered into a new phase of the post-Soviet and post-Cold War period. "Russia resorted to military force because it wanted to signal a game change," Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Sofia-based Center for Liberal Strategies wrote in "Foreign Affairs.

" The Incredible Shrinking 'Collective Putin' Putin, it appears, has made his choice. The Best Laid Plans. Window on Eurasia. Russia: Other Points of View. Eurasia Blog - The Jamestown Foundation. Affaires étrangères. Géopolitique. Les négociations avec l'Iran sur le dossier nucléaire approchent de leur dénouement.

Géopolitique

A quelques jours de la date butoir du 24 novembre, les spéculations vont bon train. Parviendra-t-on à régler les questions en suspens ? En l'absence d'un accord final, les tractations seront-elles à nouveau prolongées ? Ou bien faudra-t-il se séparer sur un constat d'échec ? Quelles que soient les critiques que l'on peut porter aux négociations en cours, notamment sur le fait qu'elles ne concernent que le nucléaire, et pas le comportement déstabilisateur de l'Iran dans la région, leur conclusion, dans un sens ou dans l'autre, sera un événement d'une portée historique.

En cas d'accord, l'équilibre stratégique de la région sera bouleversé. Un an après le début des pourparlers, six mois après une première extension, et dans le contexte d'une déstabilisation croissante du Moyen Orient, les deux parties ont intérêt à trouver un accord. Tout accord implique des concessions de part et d'autre. FOREIGN POLICY.