Stockbee. Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… The Art of Contrarian Trading. Brett Steenbarger Articles on Trading Psychology and Trading Tec. Brett Steenbarger Trading Psychology Weblog. Trading Psychology Weblog In this weblog, I follow research and trading ideas designed to catch intermediate moves in the equities markets. My general practice is to post to the Weblog on Sundays, with additional articles and trading performance posts. Please note that the Weblog is my trading diary and is not intended as a data service or as a source of trading recommendations. By placing the diary online, I hope to stimulate other traders to conduct and share their own market research. Weblog Policies Note: I'm in the process of reorganizing this site. Week of December 24 - December 28, 2007 A Bounce, But With Mixed Conviction Small caps and NASDAQ issues took the lead over the course of the week, rallying solidly. We also saw improvements in the new high/low data, but not as much as the rally might lead one to believe.
The weakness in the high/low data is matched by very weak readings in the Cumulative Adjusted NYSE TICK. Week of December 17 - December 21, 2007 Mixed Signals. Economist's View. Gauti Eggertson and Neil Mehotra have an interesting new paper: A Model of Secular Stagnation, by Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra: 1 Introduction During the closing phase of the Great Depression in 1938, the President of the American Economic Association, Alvin Hansen, delivered a disturbing message in his Presidential Address to the Association (see Hansen ( 1939 )). He suggested that the Great Depression might just be the start of a new era of ongoing unemployment and economic stagnation without any natural force towards full employment.
This idea was termed the ”secular stagnation” hypothesis. One of the main driving forces of secular stagnation, according to Hansen, was a decline in the population birth rate and an oversupply of savings that was suppressing aggregate demand. Soon after Hansen’s address, the Second World War led to a massive increase in government spending effectively end- ing any concern of insufficient demand. Explainer: Why is deflation so harmful? New column: Stockbee. The Kirk Report. Wang’s Happy Trading » Stocks, Stock Market, Invest, Investments. Original Signal - Transmitting Finance. A Dash of Insight. This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention.
Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence between economic fundamentals and what I called "fluff. " The latter term referring to the collection of top-calling, market-rigging, crash charts, and "This is the big one" stories. This was one of my better forecasts. The economic news was excellent. This is another good illustration of the reason for my weekly post – planning for the week ahead. Naturally we would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. This Week's Theme I have almost 27 years of experience as a market professional. If earnings disappoint, it will be seized upon as confirmation of the bad economy, expensive stocks meme. Last Week's Data The Good The Bad The Ugly. Abnormal Returns Intelligent Investment Links in Real-Time.
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