Bahawalpur's Real Estate Boom. Last week Saeed Shah reported on Jaish-e-Mohammad 's [JeM] construction of a walled-off 4.5-acre compound three miles outside of Bahawalpur , located in the south of Pakistan's Punjab province. JeM already has a headquarters and a seminary in the city center. This new facility is much grander. It includes a swimming pool, stable for horses and a playground for children. Gotta love those kid-friendly militants. The compound sounds just like my sleep-away camp, except I have a feeling its riflery range may be a bit more robust. In all seriousness, this is deeply troubling. Over the past six months Pakistan has made strides in its fight against the TTP and TNSM, two organizations that consistently threatened the state.
It is likely that support for JeM goes beyond merely tolerance. The site could serve multiple purposes. Second, according to Shah's report, Bahawalpur serves as an "R&R" safe haven for jihadists battling in Afghanistan. But developments such as this one give me pause. The Afghanistan Election. Caveat Lector: There will be no predictions in this blog entry and there is, as yet, not much to analyze. I also promise no more pretentious use of Latin for the remainder of this post. But I say no predictions/heavy analysis because we’re not going to know who won, whether rigging was a big problem or what the security situation looked like in various places on the ground for a little while.
What we do know is based on a lot of snap reporting, emailing, blogging and tweeting. On that score my colleagues Gilles Dorronsoro and Austin Long over at the Foreign Policy AfPak Channel, both of who are on the ground in Afghanistan, had a brief exchange discussing turnout that went something like this: Gilles: So some people are not afraid of the Taliban, just cynical? Austin: I also think you hit the nail on the head on turn-out: it’s probably low only in part because of security concerns but mostly due to apathy and cynicism. Note: They had more to say than that. Low Hanging Fruit. Among the many tough choices that must be made about how to bring stability to Afghanistan and Pakistan the decision to target Baitullah Mehsud was low-hanging fruit.
He was responsible for the deaths of countless Pakistanis and under his leadership the TTP threatened the stability of the state. Although his survival was a source of friction between Pakistan and the U.S., Baitullah was also a target both sides could agree was a threat. Killing him was a shared operational priority, worthy of an American breach of sovereignty by way of hellfire missile. One hopes that his death will be a confidence building measure in the Pakistan-U.S. partnership, but the two countries still have divergent strategic priorities and future targets are likely to prove harder to agree upon.
In the event he is really dead (uncertainty still remains) his death will have an impact at an operational level on the TTP. But even this should not be overstated. The Definition of Insanity… Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. For example, using air power to try to defeat an insurgency. I’m already on record saying I think that rushing into S. Waziristan before Swat is secure is a bad idea. And by secure I mean knowing that Pakistani forces are able to hold the area and enable refugees to return while ensuring militants do not. Refugees may be returning, but it is far from certain that it is actually safe for them to do so.
On the plus side, the army has pledged to keep a presence in Swat for a year. Though exactly what that means I’m not certain. Hmm… yeah, I could see how the Army might be nervous about that. The operation is unlikely to destroy the enemy, however, and will leave in place some Taliban warlords whom the United States and its NATO allies in Afghanistan regard as a significant cross-border threat. To be fair to Pakistan it took America quite a while to (re)figure out COIN in Iraq.
This… is bad. Kandahar Police Chief Matiullah was killed yesterday during a shootout between Afghan police and an Afghan private security firm said to have been employed by the Coalition. I’m slammed at work and several serious Afghanistan watchers with a lot more local knowledge than I have [which ain't that hard] are all over this story. So go here to learn more: South Asia | Taliban film shows leader is dead.
The Taliban in Pakistan have released a video confirming that their former leader Baitullah Mehsud is dead. A video received by the BBC shows the body of the former head of Pakistan's largest Taliban group lying in a room. It is not clear where it was taken. Mr Mehsud was killed on 6 August in the tribal region of South Waziristan in a missile attack by a suspected US drone. The video came as officials said at least six people had been killed in a fresh drone attack in North Waziristan. The strike near the town of Mir Ali was the third such attack in the past 24 hours against militant targets near the Afghan border, intelligence officials said.
Two missile attacks on Tuesday, one in South Waziristan and one in North Waziristan, left at least 12 suspected militants dead. Covered US and Pakistani officials were quick to claim Mr Mehsud's death, but it took nearly three weeks for the Taliban to admit he had been hurt in the attack and had later died. The Great Pashtun Hope. Protecting that proxy… well, that’s a different story.
One common refrain in some of the MSM coverage yesterday is summed up here: The killing called into question the government’s strategy of exploiting tribal fissures in order to defeat Mr. Mehsud and was apparently intended to serve as a reminder that there were serious consequences for crossing him, analysts said. ‘It tells people, if you side with the government, this is what will happen to you,’ said Talat Masood, a retired general and a military analyst.
Do people in the FATA really need a reminder? To me, there are two larger issues here than the fact that you can’t rely on the Pakistani state for protection. First, I’m bothered by this belief that there is some non-state actor our there that is going to do the state’s job for it. Second, having Zainuddin on side was all well and good in terms of dealing with Baitullah and the TTP. News of the day. Richard Holbrooke: Goodwill Ambassador. Good Idea… Bad Idea? In trying to work out my own thinking on it, I made myself a little good idea / bad idea chart. The good idea / bad idea chart approach is a favorite of one of my wife’s friends who runs a day camp. Whenever a kid ends up in her office for doing something bad, she holds up a piece of oak tag with good idea on one side and bad idea on the other. Now it’s not that I don’t appreciate nuanced grey areas – I love to build myself a wall and sit on top of it as much as the next PhD student – but if I ever get a policy job there is no doubt I’ll have that chart hanging in my office.
Good Idea 1. And when I was there during the beginning of the offensive, the reports I was hearing indicated that the army was trying to avoid falling back on overwhelming and indiscriminate force. 2. 3. Nonetheless, as attacks escalate in the rest of Pakistan there will be increasing pressure to deal with the people responsible… and a lot of them are in S. Bad Idea 1. 2. 3. 4. Mr. 5. 5a.