International Research Institute for Climate and Society | ENSO Resources. This site provides details of the current forecast status of ENSO conditions, as well as background information on both the physical phenomenon and some of its associated impacts. For more information, check out #IRIforecast on Twitter, or ask us a question using #ENSOQandA. A summary of each month’s forecast briefing will be posted on the third Friday of each month. Click Here for the Current Forecast. Research Global Climate Division ENSO and seasonal forecasts. EL Niño / La Niña Updates.
International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Forecast Products. Web-Based Interactive Ocean Modeling. History of El Niño. El Niño Modoki Phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific. The El Niño Modoki El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below).
Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. The name " El Niño Modoki " was first coined by Prof. El Niño Modoki Impacts The El Niño Modoki phenomenon is characterized by the anomalously warm central equatorial Pacific flanked by anomalously cool regions in both west and east.
The El Niño Modoki significantly influences regional climates in China, Japan and US. Event status Publications Weng, H., K. Research Global Climate Division ENSO and seasonal forecasts. Pacific Region Panel. 1.To oversee and facilitate the implementation of CLIVAR in the Pacific sector in order to meet the objectives outlined in the Science and Implementation Plans in collaboration with other relevant panels, research foci groups and task teams.
This includes : –Understanding the dynamics and teleconnexions of ENSO on multiple timescales (in relation with ENSO in a warming world RF) –Indo-Pacific Decadal Variability and its global connexion (in relation with Climate Dynamics Panel) –Ocean mass and property transports and their relationships to the Pacific climate and other basins (in relation with other basin panels) – Regional impacts of climate variability and changes (sea level, ecosystems, extreme events, etc) (in relation with regional sea level RF and upwelling RF) - Supporting the development of a sustainable tropical observing system (in relation with the TPOS-2020 steering committee) 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. International Research Institute for Climate and Society | ENSO Forecasts. El Niño: Is 2014 the new 1997?
El Niño: Is 2014 the new 1997? May 19, 2014: Every ten days, the NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite maps all the world's oceans, monitoring changes in sea surface height, a measure of heat in the upper layers of the water. Because our planet is more than 70% ocean, this information is crucial to global forecasts of weather and climate. Lately, Jason-2 has seen something brewing in the Pacific—and it looks a lot like 1997. "A pattern of sea surface heights and temperatures has formed that reminds me of the way the Pacific looked in the spring of 1997," says Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "That turned out to be the precursor of a big El Niño. " "We can't yet say for sure that an El Niño will develop in 2014, or how big it might be," cautions Mike McPhaden of NOAA's Pacific Environmental Research Laboratories in Seattle, "but the Jason-2 data support the El Niño Watch issued last month by NOAA.
" "The same pattern is repeating in 2014," says McPhaden. El Niño – riding the climate roller coaster - Academy of Science. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology site has a vast amount of information about climate. Here is just a taste: Climate variability and El Niño A good overview of what causes El Niños and how they affect Australia's climate. El Niño wrap-up Starts with a look at the current situation then briefly explains what El Niño is. 'El Niño education' gives more information about climate variability and El Niño. El Niño: "droughts and flooding rains" An article by Neville Nicholls describing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and how it affects Australia. Nicholls also discusses climate forecasting and the 1997 El Niño. The Long Paddock (Queensland Government, Australia) Climate management information for rural Australia Practical information to help people plan for climate variability.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation Indian Ocean – influence on Australia's climate (The Science Show, 30 September 2006) Discusses how the Indian Ocean influences the climate over the whole of Australia. PMEL/TAO: The El Niño story. Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia. Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are considered essential for the prediction of short term (a few months to 1 year) climate variations.
To provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys which measure temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys daily transmit data which are available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real time. In normal, non-El Niño conditions (top panel of schematic diagram), the trade winds blow towards the west across the tropical Pac:ific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the west Pacific, so that the sea surface is about 1/2 meter higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador. December 1998 was a strong La Niña (cold) event. Australian Academy of Science El Niño web site. Variability: Oceanic Niño Index. The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal. This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the United States and other parts of the world. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral. El Niño conditions occur when abnormally warm waters accumulate in tropical latitudes of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions occur when cooler-than-average waters accumulate in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and tropical rains shift to the west. Slow slosh of warm water across Pacific hints El Niño is brewing. The El Niño / La Niña climate pattern that alternately warms and cools the eastern tropical Pacific is the 800-pound gorilla of Earth’s climate system.
On a global scale, no other single phenomenon has a greater influence on whether a year will be warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average. Naturally, then, the ears of seasonal forecasters and natural resource managers around the world perked up back in early March when NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an “El Niño Watch.” The “watch” means that oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months. These maps reveal one of the most significant of those favorable signs: a deep pool of warm water sliding eastward along the equator since late January.
The pool of warm water was lurking in the western Pacific in mid-February, but it shifted progressively eastward in the subsequent two months. SVS Animation 287 - Visualizing El Niño. Visualizing El Nino From NASA Scientific Visualization Studio. News Online (Story 2225) May 17, 2004 — NOAA forecasters are predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. At a news conference Monday in Houston, Texas, NOAA officials said the season outlook is for 12 to 15 tropical storms, with six to eight systems becoming hurricanes, and two to four of those major hurricanes. (Click NOAA over head satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Isabel beginning to lash the U.S. mainland with its powerful winds taken on Sept. 17, 2003, at 5:15 p.m. EDT. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”) Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency officials joined NOAA in urging Gulf and Atlantic Coast states to be prepared for an active season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
“The forecast is the result of thousands of hours of work by NOAA and its partners,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. May 16-22 is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA will issue an update to this year’s hurricane outlook on Aug. 10, 2004. El Niño’s high-altitude highway | UCAR - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. May 14, 2014 | Researchers and forecasters have long known that El Niño can influence weather thousands of miles away. It now appears that this Pacific Ocean phenomenon exerts its global impact through two different atmospheric pathways, one located miles above the other.
Scientists are now mapping out these routes, which will help bolster prediction of regional climate. When an El Niño event arrives every few years, it shifts the location of warm sea-surface temperatures and persistent showers and thunderstorms eastward across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The rising air forces rearrangements nearby, and the signals reverberate outward through the troposphere (the lowest few miles of the atmosphere). Depending on location, this shifts the seasonal odds toward warm, cool, wet, or dry in many parts of the Americas, Asia, and Australia. El Niño's typical impacts (December–February) are well known for much of the globe, as shown above.
A stratospheric partner Dive deeper In Graphic Terms. Powertools ENSO Quick-Look. El Nino Southern Oscillation Quick-Look Images(Current Observations and Forecasts) --- Current Conditions --- Global Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesCourtesy: NOAA NESDISYellows represent warmer than normal waters (seasonally adjusted)/Blues are cooler than normal Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Wind and Water Temperature AnomalyCourtesy: NOAA PMELLower panel: West-to-east winds and warmer than normal water temps are indicative of El Nino Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Height Anomaly Courtesy: NOAA CPC Subsurface warm water is evidenced by increases in surface water height as compared to normal.
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sub-Surface Water Temperature and AnomalyCourtesy: NOAA PMELKelvin waves are evidenced by pockets of warmer than normal water at the 200m depth. Animation (5 day Increments) Courtesy: NOAA CPC Southern Oscillation Index Courtesy: BOM Measures the relative surface pressure difference between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. --- Forecast Conditions --- Moderate to strong El Nino becoming increasingly likely - New York Metro Weather. While our area has been enjoying a stretch of pleasant and warmer weather, many meteorologists and weather hobbyists alike have been analyzing interesting data in the Equatorial Pacific: signs of a developing El Nino.
An El Nino is generally defined as a trimonthly period where waters in the Equatorial Pacific — from 160 Degrees East to 80 Degrees West Longitude — are warmer than normal. This tends to have effects on the general atmospheric circulation, which will be detailed in this article. The Climate Prediction Center breaks this area into four different Nino regions, since warm anomalies in different regions of the Equatorial Pacific can lead to subtle, yet important changes in how the El Nino behaves.
The four El Nino regions (NCDC). The region used to officially define an El Nino event is Nino 3.4, which spans from about 170 Degrees West to 120 Degrees West. The strong El Nino event of 1997-1998. The latest CFS model run shows an El Nino emerging (CPC). What causes an El Nino? World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year - environment - 07 May 2014. Wild weather is coming in 2014, with floods, storms and droughts expected around the Pacific, but little is being done to protect the people on the front line THE weather is preparing to go wild, and will wreak havoc and death around the globe later this year.
An El Niño, a splurge of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, is coming. It will unleash floods in the Americas, while South-East Asia and Australia face drought. Yet little is being done to address these consequences. "The tropical climate system is primed for a big El Niño," says Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu (see diagram). An El Niño begins when warm water near Indonesia spreads eastwards and rises to the surface of the Pacific. The effects can be deadly. Meteorologists contacted by New Scientist all expect an El Niño at the end of this year. Yet official forecasts remain cautious. Most El Niño researchers say forecasters are being too conservative. The good news is that El Niño is a known quantity.
Storm Prediction Center - ENSO Strength and Tornadoes. The charts below illustrate that occasional weak cool-season links may occur between the phase strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase strength) and EF1 to EF5 tornado reports for bi-monthly periods from 1950 through 2010 (1951 to 2011 for the last pair, Dec-Jan period). The charts display a simple running sum of EF1 to EF5 tornado events over the same bi-monthly periods that are used for the Multi-variate ENSO Index, or MEI, (Wolter, K., and M.
S. Timlin, 1998). The bi-monthly charts on the left show tornado events summed for each period with the years increasing along the positive y-axis. The charts on the right use the same bi-monthly tornado sums for each period but years are re-ordered and ranked based on MEI. The strongest bi-monthly El Niño events are at the top of the y-axis while the strongest La Niña events are at the bottom of the y-axis. For additional information please contact Greg Carbin at SPC. References: IRI Map Room. Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly. This map displays monthly sea surface temperature anomalies for the globe. Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies are calculated with respect to the 1971-2000 climatology.
Yellow to red colors on the map indicate areas where sea surface temperature for the month shown is above the climatological value for that month of the year, and blue shades indicate where sea surface temperature is below normal. Shading starts at +/- 0.5°C. Anomalies are also contoured at an interval of 0.5°C. El Niño and La Niña or ENSO / ENSO - our-planete.info. El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities. Trans-Niño years could foster tornado outbreaks.
Japan ENSO. US Agencys ~ENSO INFO. Latest WMO ENSO Update. The El Niño Phenomenon: From Understanding to Predicting. University Papers. Weather ElNino Resources Info. Tracking El Niño | Origins—Ground Zero. Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, Ch. 3: Global Circulation. El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. Effects of El Niño on the world weather. Ocean Motion : Impact : Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current. Ocean Motion : Data Resources : Ocean Surface Winds.