The Big Picture. The Daily Reckoning - Entertaining Ideas on the Economy, Markets, Gold, Oil and Investing Strategies. 24/7 Wall St. - Insightful Analysis and Commentary for U.S. and Global Equity Investors. FT Alphaville. Dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning. S&P 500 Snapshot: A Sine Wave and Closing RallyApr 15, 2014 Doug Short Before the market opened, the Consumer Price Index for March came in higher than forecast, although inflation remains exceptionally tame, and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was surprisingly weak. S&P 500 ignored the economic data and resumed yesterday’s closing rally to its morning high about 20 minutes later. By 2 PM the index had executed a complete sine wave from yesterday’s close.
It then rallied to its 0.73% intraday high shortly before the final bell, which recorded a trimmed gain of 0.68%.More... The Economy In PicturesApr 15, 2014 Lance Roberts It is sometimes helpful to view the various economic indicators and draw your own conclusions outside of someone else’s opinion. With the economy now more than 5 years into an expansion, which is long by historical standards, the question for you to answer by looking at the charts below is: "Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?
" Your Ringside Seat to the Global Financial Crisis ? DollarCollapse.com. Financial & Economic Infographics - VisualEconomics.com. [ClearOnMoney] 5 Jan 2014 by Jim Fickett. The Census Bureau collects comprehensive accounts of state and local government finances. In particular, Census is the only source for an overall total figure for state and local government debt. Because there are many municipalities, these data are issued with a long delay, and the latest data current available are for 2011. Through 2011, total debt, both as an absolute dollar amount, and as a multiple of total revenue, continued to build: Strained local government finances, with occasional bankruptcies, struggles to readjust pension funds, and cutbacks in services, will be a standard feature of life in the US for a long time.
[See the Reference page State and local government debt for sources, background, and commentary on a number of related issues.] A Dash of Insight. This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention. Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence between economic fundamentals and what I called "fluff.
" This is another good illustration of the reason for my weekly post – planning for the week ahead. Naturally we would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. This Week's Theme I have almost 27 years of experience as a market professional. If earnings disappoint, it will be seized upon as confirmation of the bad economy, expensive stocks meme. If earnings satisfy, it might have a calming effect. I have some thoughts that I will share in the conclusion. Last Week's Data Each week I break down events into good and bad. The news is market-friendly. The Good The Bad The Ugly Humor. Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Financial Armageddon. Interfluidity. Financialhaze. Across the Curve. The Baseline Scenario. Economist's View. Gauti Eggertson and Neil Mehotra have an interesting new paper: A Model of Secular Stagnation, by Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra: 1 Introduction During the closing phase of the Great Depression in 1938, the President of the American Economic Association, Alvin Hansen, delivered a disturbing message in his Presidential Address to the Association (see Hansen ( 1939 )).
He suggested that the Great Depression might just be the start of a new era of ongoing unemployment and economic stagnation without any natural force towards full employment. This idea was termed the ”secular stagnation” hypothesis. One of the main driving forces of secular stagnation, according to Hansen, was a decline in the population birth rate and an oversupply of savings that was suppressing aggregate demand. Soon after Hansen’s address, the Second World War led to a massive increase in government spending effectively end- ing any concern of insufficient demand. Explainer: Why is deflation so harmful? New column: Money Morning Australia — Australian Financial News That Matters in 90 Seconds or Less.
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