Poker Static Strategy: The Dang Brothers. Untitled. Interview with Matt “Hoss_TBF” Hawrilenko. Matt “Hoss_TBF” Hawrilenko is one of the top limit and mixed game poker players in the world. He regularly played in some of the highest limit games online, as high as $2k/$4k and was a Full Tilt Poker pro. In February of 2011, Hawrilenko's most successful month, he won an amazing $1.7 million, dominating the 2-7 Triple Draw games.
Despite being an online cash games specialist with millioPns in profit, in 2009 he added a WSOP bracelet to his resumé, winning the $5,000 buy-in Six-handed NLHE event for over $1 million. Hawrilenko was born in Massachusetts in 1982 and currently resides in Boston. Note: This interview was conducted on July 17, 2012 Interview with Matt Hawrilenko Hey Matt, thanks for taking the time to speak to me. Things are great. Haha sounds good, and like a far cry from Vegas. Yeah no neon, and there are bulls, but none of them are mechanical. Nice. Every year I go into the WSOP recognizing that the median expectation is to be down money.
Sure. Right. Ah, clever. Sure. A Poker Blog: Hands with Sauce #1 - LeggoPoker. Hey all. Consider this blog as practice for my poker book (in the somewhat unlikely event I decide to write it). The format is going to be "Hands with Sauce", borrowed wholesale from the classic bridge book "Bridge with Reese" written by the renowned bridge pro Terrance. The idea is that I take the reader through my thought process, such as it is, in intriguing hands, stopping along the way to touch on various theoretical topics of interest and then, upon further reflection, dissect the plays which result. Without further ado then, Hands with Sauce #1: 6bet shit-flinging vs AARookie Stakes: 40/80nl 6-Max. This hand seems to be fairly infamous across the internetz, and I still get pms asking about it fairly regularly. First, in order to get into character for this hand, you have to understand just how insanely aggro AARookie was playing during this session and previous sessions.
Unfortunately, Rookie woke up behind me and made it his customary $1920. Rookie bet $6650 into a pot of $18288. Analyzing Ungar - LeggoPoker. Edit: there was confusion writing this whether Tom Sims meant "Raises to x" or "Raises an additional x". The consensus is that Mr. Sims meant the latter, so I had to edit everything to reflect that. Fortunately it doesn't change too much. I was always under the impression that poker suffers a little bit when it comes to objectively analyzing the play of past champions. This transparency seemed lacking when it came to historically reviewing the WSOP. That was until yesterday, when (thanks to @jesswelman) I was made aware of hand-for-hand coverage of WSOP main event final tables from 1995 until 2000. For this blog entry I'll be focusing solely on 1997, when Stu Ungar won his 3rd main event. Blinds 5k/10k with 2k ante Starting stacks (Players are listed in seating order clockwise, so Ungar has direct position on Stanley) Stu Ungar - 1.1MM Peter Bao - 204k Bob Walker - 610k John Strzemp - 245k Mel Judah - 300k Ron Stanley - 700k Postflop is interesting.
Ungar hands: Noteworthy hands: 3 Live Hands - High Stakes Poker Pot Limit and No Limit - High Stakes Poker Forum. 25/50 borgata Hand 1: villain on my immediate left has 3b a couple times from the small but flatting a fair amount when in position. He's a competent semi-reg in his forties, knows everybody in the room, obviously not a pro. Made a couple hero calls on me in medium pots. There is a loose/passive limping fish on my immediate right I keep isolating. Fish limps, I raise to 200 with 6k stack in hijack with JQs, villain 3b to 700, fish folds, I call. Flop (1500): 4TJ rb. I check/call 1100.
Hand 2: villain is new to table, some talkative 20-something reg who used to play online that I've never heard of. On the CO, he calls in big. Flop (325): 4 He donks 200 I raise to 700, he 3b to 1800, I call. !!!!!!! He bets 3200 with 1700 behind Call or jam? Hand 3: villain is good-seeming young Persian guy, aggressive for these games, I'm running the table over 4-handed and winning every pot. Flop (350): 2 rb. Turn (1750); same Q . River (4050): J He checks, I think for about 45 seconds and bet 6300. Simple questions from a recreational player - High Stakes Poker Pot Limit and No Limit - High Stakes Poker Forum. For those willing to humor me, I would appreciate some feed back. I have always beat 10/20 NL at home (admittedly a small sample size, however), but I usually lose at the Bellagio (3 down sessions, one up).
I play there because I want to play against people I know are better than me so that I can improve my game. The money I win or lose at poker at these stakes is reasonably inconsequential to me, but I intensely hate losing nonetheless. If I play twice a month I am lucky. I play because of the intellectual challenge. I am a winning player if I do not include the Bellagio. 10/20 NL, Bellagio Hand 1: Villain a local pro, >$20k stack, knows me from the night before Me, an obvious recreational player on vacation, about $5k Villain (UTG) opens to $80.
Flop 10, 8, 4 (or thereabouts, rainbow). Villain checks. Turn: 3(?). River: 7(or something else equally innocuous). Hand 2: Very late, down to 5 handed. Villain (CO) raises to $120 (there was a $40 straddle). Medium High Stakes Full Ring Poker - Texas Holdem Full Ring Games. (Theory) - Amazing Bankroll/Variance Post - Heads-Up No Limit Poker Strategy - Heads Up No Limit Poker Forum. I'm sure a few of you remember my horrendous downswing back in September/October. Suffice it to say, I have searched far and wide to really understand variance since then, as I feel you are better suited to cope with the brutal swings of HU Cash if you understand variance. In 3+ months of searching I finally found an amazing post that pretty much was everything I was looking for. It's sort of advanced and uses a lot of "basic" statistics.
If you haven't learned this stuff before it can be daunting, if you have, the link should be a nice refresher course. Excel provides a lot of these functions (and the author of the thread will point out which functions to use) so I highly recommend playing around with your stats and figuring out where you stand. Summary and Implications: It takes a LOT of hands to iron out variance in HU. Winrate: 13.78 PTBB/100 SD: 82.8 PTBB/100 N: 44808 hands Desired Confidence Interval? Number of Hands: 2,633,643. The bankroll management and variance guide.
So, how many buyins do I need for ... ? So, I have been getting 6541 BB/100 (on about 250 hands, got beat by a sick 18-outer, so it could be better), am I better than Rekrul ? So, I've been crushing NL50 on so many hands (like, you know, 5000), do you think I am ready for NL2000 ? Those questions are asked frequently enough that I thought a summary of everything bankroll/winrate/variance-related would be good. I'm sure most people here have at least a basic grasp of bankroll management, but you may still be able to learn some more advanced concepts here. Fortunately, I don't think many people on liquidpoker have a gambling problem or seriously flawed bankroll management, but if this guide can help at least one person to avoid busto and educate the newer and less experienced members, it should be worth it. But fighting variance and keeping you in the game is actually only half the use of a bankroll. That's why we keep a bankroll, to avoid busting when luck doesn't go our way.
Ask me anything about poker game theory - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum. Quote: First let's be clear about what's happening. There's some river, and the effective stack is one pot. Now you say X (the first player) makes an "optimal pot sized jam. " This I assume means "jam as part of an optimal strategy. " Well, it's clear that X's EV can't be MORE than a pot, since if that were the case, Y (the second player) could unilaterally improve by folding all the time to his jams.
Suppose that X has 90% the nuts and 10% nothing, and Y has some in-between hand all the time. Now it's possible that "shove optimally" means something different to you than this, and if so, you should clarify that. Life as a NLHE 6-max Cash Game Pro by the Numbers (It Ain’t Too Bad) | NoahSD's Awesome Poker Blog. (Update 3/8: I originally completely forgot to talk about what happens with different winrates. I added this analysis to the bottom of the post.) In two of my previous posts (1 2), I crunched some numbers to show that the variance in large-field MTTs is pretty damn crazy. Now I’m going to turn my attention to NLHE 6-max cash games. (Sorry for the delay. This is actually pretty easy thanks to the statistician’s best friend, the central limit theorem.
(Another consequence of this mathematical convenience is the fact that some other people have done this analysis already. To see how that works out in practice, let’s look at a basic example. The clones each have an expected value of 25 buyins, and a full 38% of them fall within 10 buyins of their EV. Compare this to a roughly similar situation from my MTT data: A 40% ROI player playing 1000 tournaments. Of course, an 11% chance of loss certainly isn’t negligible. What if our clones play 200k hands instead? Update 3/8: Oops. Life as an Online MTT Pro II: The Numbers Are Back, and They’re Out for Blood | NoahSD's Awesome Poker Blog. (This is a follow-up to this post. You probably want to read that first if you haven’t already.)
My previous post about the variance in MTTs got some interest and plenty of criticism, so I thought I’d follow up with a (slightly) less sloppy post that considered some criticism. In future posts, I plan to look at various forms of cash games, STTs, and DoNs. (If you’d like to share your data for any of these things, please get in contact with me.) First of all, I should clarify something: Some people are definitely better off playing large-field MTTs than other games.
Anyway, there’s lots of fun stuff that I didn’t do with Shaun’s data that I’d like to do with my shiny new data set (see the section at the bottom for more about this sexy piece of data). Large-Field Tourneys with No Variation in Buy-In If you compare this to the data from my previous post, you’ll see that the situation is actually quite a bit better in some spots. 40% ROI Player in Large-Field Tourneys This is pretty damning. What is the average amount of times poker players go broke? - Poker News - News, Views and Gossip. This is a question I always wanted to know the answer to. Yes this is a very long post so don't read it if you don't like reading very long paragraphs. First off let me say this. I had played online poker professionally for a bit less than 2 years but I didn't make that much money compared to most online pros. And of course after black friday, well no more income. I had played mid stakes sngs. I always hear about poker players going broke etc.
Well for professional poker players, majority of them are skilled... otherwise they aren't considered professionals if thats their sole income. I know there are many people that go broke playing tournaments because its pretty much close to impossible to play tournaments only as a living. Also, I'm curious but would I be right to assume most live poker pros don't pay taxes until they even built a decent bankroll? You hear about guys like JRB being broke. A guy that I think would never go broke is someone who wins consistently year after year. Video Search Results for "galfond" | Bluefire Poker Training. NLHE: 3betting and facing a 3bet - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum. All IMHO. Hey guys. I wrote a similar article about a month ago, but did more research and wanted to release a new version. This is just a pretty standard 3bet article for beginning and intermediate players (and myself, as I write). I think there are at least a few somewhat newer players that will appreciate this post, so I hope you enjoy.
Also, if I screwed up any math or something...sorry. Any math is mostly irrelevant to the article, so I didn't double-check it. Historycliffnotes for lazy people:- Everyone 3bets a merged value range.- Everyone realizes that 4bets are really big in No Limit, and folding JJ preflop sucks A long time ago, when online games were passive and nits made millions, people were 3betting a merged (depolarized) range preflop. Games became incredibly tight in 3bet scenarios as a result. Take the following FR Cash game example: Hero is on the BTN with 8h9h Villain is in the HiJack with a PFR in unopened pots in the HJ of about 15%. 1. 2. The Well: Jman28 (revisisted) - High Stakes Poker Pot Limit and No Limit - High Stakes Poker Forum.
(Simple?) 3-bet Scenario - High Stakes Poker Pot Limit and No Limit - High Stakes Poker Forum. Since the dude is good and aggressive we're assuming he's capable of CRing AI with a lot of stuff on the flop and could possible be slowplaying a monster right now. Anyways, as to the answer to your "How much does it matter" question I think we'd have to look at 1) how likley am I to fold a better hand when I flop nothing?
2) how likely am I to get called/raised by a worst hand if I flop something? Now, with A2 and KJ a "missed flop" would consist of all little cards (or some variant of Q52 or something) and if we C-bet in these positions we are unlikely to fold QQ-66 from a smart/thinking player. However, if 88 or 75s misses the flop (like say AQ4) and then we C-bet, we are more likely to fold better hands such as JJ-66 and of course we will fold if we get CR'd all in (which we would have done with A2s and KJo anyways). Now let's say we flop a BIG hand with these hands, which one is most likely to get paid off? Will A42 win a big pot from AQ? - Villian totally won't see it coming. When I Was A Poker Donk -- Lars Bonding - Poker News.
Lars Bonding In this series, Card Player asks top pros to rewind back to their humble beginnings and provide insights regarding the mistakes, leaks, and deficiencies that they had to overcome in order to improve their games. Lars Bonding is one of the most consistent and aggressive no-limit hold’em tournament players on the circuit today. The Danish poker pro started cashing in major tournaments back in 2005, and since then has accumulated nearly $2.4 million in career earnings.
The Las Vegas resident had been on one of the most impressive tears in the history of online poker earlier this year — all before online poker was widely shutdown in the United States. Over the course of a few months, he recorded two wins and a fourth-place finish in the $200 buy-in PokerStars Sunday Warmup, which had consistently drawn more than 4,600 entrants each week. The run netted him about $250,000.
In brick-and-mortar card rooms, Bonding has been equally as impressive. Classifying Bets & Raises Part 2 - The Risk-Reward Approach - CardSharp. In this series I discuss how bets and raises are classified, and the thinking behind determining if a given bet or raise is correct. Part 1 As you’ll recall from last article, there is a well defined system for classifying calls as correct or incorrect using odds math. That math essentially analyzes three relevant facts: How much money you win if your call works (ie. you hit your draw, or have the best hand already) ($win)How much you lose if your call doesn’t work ($lose)How likely your call is to work (P(win)) At that point the expectation for the call is easy to calculate: Expectation = $win * P(win) - $lose * (1-P(win)) The important thing to recognize here is that this formula is essentially expectation = reward - risk That’s all there is to it.
Now, to the big point of this article: Deciding whether a bet or raise is correct is no different than deciding on a call. Understanding Reward - How You Make Money So what, precisely, is your reward when you bet? So what should we learn from this? Classifying Bets And Raises Part 3 - Aggression Is Overrated - CardSharp. Theories of Poker. WSOP 2012 - Andy Frankenberger defies his critics once again.