Chroniques franco-argentines. Le pic pétrolier, c'est de l'histoire. Le baratin mercatique sur la quatrième de couverture de la première édition de mon premier livre, Réinventer l'effondrement, me décrivait comme un théoricien majeur du pic pétrolier.
Quand je l'ai vu la première fois, ma mâchoire est tombée — et elle est restée pendante. Vous voyez, si vous parcourez une authentique liste de théoriciens majeurs du pic pétrolier — les Hubbert, Campell, Laherrère, Heinberg, Simmons et quelques autres valant d'être mentionnés, vous ne trouverez pas un seul Orlov parmi eux. En vain chercheriez vous dans les annales et les comptes-rendus de l'Association pour l'étude du pic pétrolier1 la moindre trace de votre humble auteur.
Mais à présent que cette bourde est imprimée et en circulation sur tant de copies, je suppose que je n'ai pas d'autre choix que d'essayer d'être à la hauteur des attentes qu'elle crée. fig. 1 Observons que la courbe ascendante présente beaucoup de structures intéressantes. 2. Fig. 2 fig. 3. V.S. Naipaul's The Masque of Africa dares to discuss indigenous beliefs. There is a great thudding taboo in any discussion of Africa.
Western journalists and aid workers see it everywhere, yet it is nowhere in our coverage back home. We don't want to talk about it. We don't know how to. We smother it in silence, even though it is one of the most vivid and vibrant and violent parts of African life. We are afraid—of being misunderstood, or of sounding like our own ugliest ancestors. These are not trivial side-beliefs, like vague fears of black cats crossing your path. Where do these beliefs come from? At first glance, the worst possible person to charge into this landmine-strewn valley of taboos is V.S. And yet The Masque of Africais not the jeer I feared it would be.
In most indigenous African religions, "God" is pretty much inaccessible to humans. These beliefs—like all religions—can bring both sweet, illusory comfort and intense terror. Yet along with this obvious comfort there is what Naipaul—and so many Africans—call "the dark side. " I dreaded V.S. Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises.
Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity.