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Commodities Crash 2014

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Le rouble s'effondre, et atteint un plus bas inédit. Le rebond a été furtif. Après une très légère hausse en début de journée, le rouble s’est effondré de 20 %, mardi 16 décembre, atteignant de nouveaux records de faiblesse face au dollar (80 roubles pour un dollar) et à l’euro (100 roubles pour un euro). L’effet qu’était censée procurer sur la monnaie russe la très forte hausse des taux (de 10,5 % à 17 %), annoncée dans la nuit de lundi à mardi, par la Banque centrale russe n’aura donc été que de très courte durée. Cette dégringolade persistante du rouble ravive le souvenir de 1998 chez les Russes, quand l’effondrement du rouble, en quelques jours, avait conduit à un défaut de la Russie sur sa dette.

Elle survient aussi quelques jours avant l’intervention (jeudi) devant des centaines de journalistes russes et étrangers, du président russe, Vladimir Poutine. Revue de la situation russe, que certains observateurs commencent à qualifier de « pré-faillite ». 1/ Quelle est l’ampleur de la chute du rouble et pourquoi est-il toujours en recul ? Les raisons de la dégringolade des Bourses mondiales. Le | • Mis à jour le | Par Audrey Tonnelier Rien ne semble pouvoir arrêter la chute des marchés. Les grandes Bourses mondiales étaient toutes orientées à la baisse, mardi 16 décembre au matin, dans un rare mouvement d’ensemble. En recul pour le septième jour d’affilée, le CAC 40, à Paris, a même franchi à la baisse le seuil symbolique des 4 000 points, en début de matinée. Un niveau qu’il n’avait plus atteint depuis la mi-octobre.

De Londres à Moscou en passant par Francfort, toutes les places européennes reculaient, imitant celles du Japon et du Moyen-Orient. Craintes pour l’Europe, incertitudes en Grèce, économie russe malmenée, chute du pétrole : à deux semaines de la fin de l’année, la conjonction de ces éléments crée un cocktail détonnant sur les marchés mondiaux. La croissance mondiale dans la tourmente A Paris, c’est la dégradation de l’activité dans l’industrie en France qui a fait replonger le CAC 40.

Le pétrole en chute libre La Russie bat de l’aile La semaine à haut risque. Commodity price crash causing Australian economy to 'unwind' Posted Australian shares and the dollar have been caught in the global commodity rout after OPEC decided last week against cutting oil production. The price of crude has fallen 15 per cent in a week, before bouncing a bit overnight, while iron ore has halved over the course of a year. There are warnings that means a big hit to Australia's national income and years, if not decades, of subpar growth.

"The whole Australian economy is unwinding because the iron ore price and the oil price are going through the floor and we're basically a commodities-based economy," said Marcus Padley from Commodity prices tumbled again over the weekend, this time after OPEC decided to maintain oil production levels, despite a 40 per cent price crash since June. Just like the situation unfolding in the iron ore market, OPEC seems happy to see the price of crude fall in the short term by flooding the market with excess supply. The silent crash in commodities—a warning sign—commentary. While the plunging prices of oil, natural gas and gasoline are making headlines every day, thanks to the benefits accruing to consumers of energy products, the message of the commodity markets, in many ways, is hardly a reassuring one when it comes to the outlook for global economic growth.

Read MoreCommodities: The selloff may carry on into 2015 Basic materials prices for the likes of copper, nickel, iron ore, and other industrial commodities, have collapsed, both in advance of, and now coincident with, weakening economies from Madrid to Moscow and from Berlin to Beijing. This is not good news for the global economy. Certainly oil's collapse has, in large part, been due to the gushing amounts of crude being produced around the world, especially here in the U.S. But demand is also falling, at the same time, suggesting that 2015 may be a rough year for the global economy. Copper prices are now below $3 a pound and there's an expression that "the economy is topped with a copper roof. " 403 - FORBIDDEN. There are a few common causes for this error code including problems with the individual script that may be executed upon request. Some of these are easier to spot and correct than others.

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Note: If the permissions are set to 000, please contact our support team using the ticket system. IP Deny Rules In the .htaccess file, there may be rules that are conflicting with each other or that are not allowing an IP address access to the site. For example, if the .htaccess looks like. The Daily Reckoning Australia You Won’t Find Financial Market News Here... Just Important Investment Ideas. Challenges and opportunities for Australia over the next decade. Introduction Thank you for the invitation to speak with you this morning.

The Budget was handed down a little over seven weeks ago now. Since then, there has been much debate on the Government's policies and what this will mean for individuals, businesses, and the economy as a whole. Today, I would like to recap some of the structural changes happening in Australia, and to provide some context for the Budget as well as other reform processes. To an extent, these structural changes directly reflect the circumstances and challenges facing your sector – those associated with adjusting to the biggest resources investment boom in our history. But there are other drivers of major change – the ageing of our population, an evolving and turbulent global economy – that require us to consider what we can and have to change to maintain and increase our living standards. I will touch on the need for further reforms, and reflect on what we can learn from the past in pursuing reform in the future.

After the resources investment boom: seamless transition or dog days? Introduction Australia’s resources investment boom is a topic familiar to us all. I’m going to talk about it again today. It’s a familiar topic for good reason: it has seen one of the largest changes in the structure of our economy in modern times, certainly outside of wartime. Further, we are at an interesting point in the boom’s evolution.

We passed the peak in the terms of trade three years ago, in the September quarter 2011, and we’ve recently passed the peak in capital investment into the resources sector. How will this final phase pan out? The commodity price boom delivered a huge windfall income gain to Australia. There are good reasons to take these warnings seriously, not least because Australia’s previous terms-of trade/resources booms definitely did end in dog days. But looking at the performance of the economy, I think the appropriate conclusion is “so far, so good”.

I don’t want to downplay the hardship associated with unemployment. The salad days Chart 1 – Terms of trade. Looking ahead: challenges and opportunities for Australia. Check against delivery*** Introduction It’s a pleasure to be here with you once again – and for a final time as the Secretary to the Treasury. CEDA’s mission – to pursue good public policy to progress Australia's economic and social development – resonates deeply with Treasury. It is apt, therefore, that I am here to talk about some of the challenges and opportunities for Australia in achieving this goal. Only two weeks ago, Australia hosted G20 Leaders in Brisbane. That commitment came in the context of a slow and uneven recovery from the Global Financial Crisis. Forecasts for global growth have been downgraded again recently following a pattern that has become familiar over the past few years. Forecasters keep expecting next year to be better than the current one, even while downgrading the current year outlook.

Revisions to IMF growth forecasts Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year). Source: IMF WEO Reflections on G20 Challenges and opportunities in the short term. OPEC Presents QE4 and Deflation. Commodities / Crude OilNov 29, 2014 - 01:10 PM GMT By: Raul_I_Meijer Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. The Fed and ECB and BOJ and PBoC may of course yet try to invest in oil, they’re easily crazy enough to try, but it will be too late even if they did. The ‘OPEC Q4′ may also keep some companies from going belly up for a while longer due to falling energy costs, but the flipside is many other companies will go bust because of the lower prices, first among them energy industry firms.

OPEC Has Ushered In QE4 Welcome to the new era of QE4. Oil wars as GFC 2.0. Today we return to the loneliest man in Davos from Oliver Wyman who predicted in early 2011 that the next GFC will spring from a commodities crash in 2015: During phase 1 we distinguish between two sources of demand affecting commodities prices: demand for use in the production of other goods (“real” demand) and demand for the purpose of price speculation (“speculative” demand). There are three major groups of players in our scenario. Firstly, there are economies, such as Latin America, Africa, Russia, Canada and Australia, which are the largest commodities producers. Secondly, there is China, which is now the world’s largest commodity importer. Thirdly, there are the developed world economies, such as the US, which are pumping liquidity into the financial system through their loose monetary policies.As with any bubble, our scenario contains a compelling narrative that allows investors to convince themselves that “this time is different”.

For Australia, the stakes could not be higher. Will the iron ore crash destroy house prices? Back in 2010 when MB was just taking shape, one of the very few sell side analysts to get the iron ore price right in advance, Tim Toohey of Goldman Sachs, wrote an equally excellent piece on what the great iron ore correction of 2014 would do to house prices.

Here is some of it: On whether Australian house prices constitute a speculative bubble: No • We think that the behaviour of house prices over the past year, and indeed the past decade does not resemble a speculative bubble. Our rationale is that: i) Refinancing of established homes is at a 9-year low. ii) The turnover of home sales that needed some form of financing as a share of the existing housing stock is low compared to the past 20 years. iii) The loan to valuation ratio of established dwellings remains well below the level seen at the start of the decade. iv) The loan to valuation ratio of new dwellings has remained broadly unchanged over the past decade. You have to doff your cap to Mr Toohey. The commodity crash: Prices plunge across the board from sugar to gold.

By Hugo Duncan for the Daily Mail Published: 00:38 GMT, 5 November 2014 | Updated: 11:11 GMT, 5 November 2014 The dramatic fall in global commodity prices to five-year lows may be keeping a lid on inflation – but it is far from good news for everyone. Associated British Foods yesterday said its impressive results would have been even stronger had it not been for the slump in the price of sugar. Revenues from the AB Sugar division, one of the world’s largest sugar producers with more than 42,000 staff in 10 countries, tumbled 22 per cent to £2.1billion in the 52 weeks to September 13 while profits were down a whopping 56 per cent to £189million. Going down: The commodity index has plunged by 16 per cent since the end of April 'The results of our sugar operations reflect a major fall in EU sugar prices and a very low world sugar price,' said AB Foods chairman Charles Sinclair.

European sugar prices started to rise sharply in 2011 and hit a peak of €740 a tonne in January 2013. Why global commodity prices are crashing and what it means for India. When commodity prices spiked in 2007-08, it took most people by surprise. The global commodity “super cycle” had crept up upon us stealthily. This month commodity markets have been jolted again. Energy, metals, bullion and agricultural commodities have all hit multi-year lows. Only this time, there is a method to the madness. The large investments in mining and refineries made since the 2008 boom are now coming on stream, which has brought global demand and supply finally close to equilibrium. Food crops are bolstered by good agronomical weather for two consecutive seasons.

Add to this a dollar that hasn’t been stronger since Bretton Woods and you have the perfect conditions to foster bearishness. Shale is changing oil dynamics Crude oil prices have defied the price trend you would expect given the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Africa, and Central Europe because of slowing demand and well supplied markets. Metal demand is subdued Monsoons weren’t that bad, afterall. China won't rescue us from a commodities crash - The Drum.

Updated Who could complain about the surge in cheap energy? But while tabloids will inevitably focus on the boon to motorists, there will be nasty consequences for the Australian economy, writes Ian Verrender. It was an anniversary that escaped unnoticed. No sombre gatherings of the ageing warriors involved in the conflict. No fond remembrance of former colleagues.

Not even a passing mention in the media. But when Continental Illinois bank failed 30 years ago in May, it sent shockwaves through America's financial system and was responsible for coining the term that now keeps global monetary mandarins awake at night. Too big to fail. By the time it hit the skids, Continental Illinois was America's seventh largest bank and its collapse preceded a financial crisis that would topple numerous Latin American governments and rock American banking. And it has raised fears this could be the catalyst for another chapter in the Global Financial Crisis. Cheap energy! The trend is not confined to oil. Now is not a good time for the housing construction boom to end | Business. The latest figures on construction activity released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Statistics reveal that the transition of the economy from the mining boom looks to have hit a bit of a speed bump.

Building construction in both the residential and non-residential sectors fell in the September quarter while engineering construction continued to plunge. The figures suggest the RBA might need to look at further reducing interest rates even at a time the OECD is warning rates should be raised. The quarterly construction figures allow us to get a good picture of economic activity across the country.

The figures are broken into building or engineering construction but within this we can also break building construction down in to residential and non-residential. Engineering construction involves things like roads and bridges, but also the construction of mines. Since the end of the investment phase of the mining boom, engineering construction has fallen off a cliff. So problem solved? Budget deficit blamed on terms of trade – but is it the whole story? | Business.