Brazilian Bubble. Narratively: Local stories, artfully told. Bloomberg Anywhere Login. Ijapicap. Economist - GDP, Inflation - Analysis on Japanese economy by Mr. Takuji Okubo. Near zero growth in 2015 In our view, the Japanese economy is entering a period of low growth through the second half of 2014 to 2016.
We forecast that the real GDP growth will decelerate from 1.5% in 2013 to 1.0% in 2014, followed by a barely positive growth of 0.4% in 2015. Growth in Japan turning south from April 2014 Japan has enjoyed a period of robust growth, lasting more than a year, till early 2014. The Verge. The price of everything. “..Fed and ECB policies aim to reassure financial market participants rather than keeping them guessing.
In the “good old days”, before quantitative easing, forward guidance and zero real interest rates, investors, asset managers, traders and bankers were forced to make difficult but educated guesses about the opportunities and vulnerabilities in financial markets. The danger of making a bad guess was, and should remain, an important restraint on excesses and systemic risk. “Today’s market participants are babied with excessively explicit “forward guidance”, supported by historically low interest rates and yields (especially in real terms) and central bank purchases if markets weaken.
Such a “safety net” makes investors and traders so complacent they panic at any hint of normalised yield curves and real interest rates, as occurred in bond markets when chairman Ben Bernanke dared mention “tapering” in May 2013 and today’s downturn in emerging markets. Financial Market Outlook for 2013. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has just bought a second home, this one in the Hamptons, the fabled playground for New York’s bankers and hedge fund managers.
It was on the market for $33 million, and its sale in December contributed to a splurge of estate buying last year that saw record prices being set for country manors in the Hamptons. The luxury segment of the real estate market in the US had a very good year, and not just in New York. California mansions which would have sat idle two or three years ago were being snapped up in weeks, with multiple bidders pushing offers up well beyond the asking price.
Nor were expensive properties subject to a buyers’ frenzy. All throughout the US, once-devastated real estate markets saw a remarkable recovery in sales volume. dShort. S&P 500 Snapshot: A Sine Wave and Closing RallyApr 15, 2014 Doug Short Before the market opened, the Consumer Price Index for March came in higher than forecast, although inflation remains exceptionally tame, and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was surprisingly weak.
S&P 500 ignored the economic data and resumed yesterday’s closing rally to its morning high about 20 minutes later. By 2 PM the index had executed a complete sine wave from yesterday’s close. It then rallied to its 0.73% intraday high shortly before the final bell, which recorded a trimmed gain of 0.68%.More... The Economy In PicturesApr 15, 2014 Lance Roberts. S O L A R C Y C L E S. Insights and Research. Under uncertain economic conditions, the S&P 500 Index((IVV)) has staggered for much of the year, gaining just over 1% during this volatile four-month period.
It remains above support at the 1850 level and the 50-day moving average, but the market feels tired and is likely to test that this week. We might be in the .. read more The stock market had a good week, up all four trading days, despite the continued mixed picture from the economy and earnings. Last week’s economic reports continued the recent pattern of some seemingly strong reports mixed with some pretty obviously weak ones.
Scott E.D. Skyrm. Blog > Detail. The new deal on Cyprus does not only have the right intentions, but averts the two major flaws of the previous deal: It fully protects insured deposits up to the €100,000 amount guaranteed by deposit insurance in all banks, andIt bails-in all bondholders and shareholders.
The deal has other remarkable elements as well: Marfin Laiki Popular Bank (the second biggest bank accounting for about one-third of banking assets in Cyprus), the most troubled bank, will be closed down immediately with full contribution of shareholders, bondholders and uninsured depositors. Ppola Comment: A central bank crisis. Vox has an excellent article by the LSE's De Grauwe about the austerity measures in the Eurozone periphery that were imposed by policymakers in response to a buyer's strike among sovereign bond investors.
As yields soared, particularly in Greece, there was a growing belief that the cause was high levels of public debt and structural inefficiencies, and that to bring yields down it was necessary to slash public borrowing and make structural reforms. There was also concern about the lack of competitiveness of periphery economies and their high unit labour costs: had they had their own currencies, devaluation would have been the corrective for this problem, but because of the Euro this was not possible and the only solution was to force down wages. How the Bitcoin protocol actually works. Many thousands of articles have been written purporting to explain Bitcoin, the online, peer-to-peer currency.
Most of those articles give a hand-wavy account of the underlying cryptographic protocol, omitting many details. Even those articles which delve deeper often gloss over crucial points. My aim in this post is to explain the major ideas behind the Bitcoin protocol in a clear, easily comprehensible way. We’ll start from first principles, build up to a broad theoretical understanding of how the protocol works, and then dig down into the nitty-gritty, examining the raw data in a Bitcoin transaction. Understanding the protocol in this detailed way is hard work. The Diplomat Magazine. China has made dramatic economic progress during the last five years, weathering the global financial crisis and becoming the world’s largest exporter and second largest economy, surpassing Japan.
By James A. Dorn for The Diplomat November 29, 2013. The Atlantic Cities. Noahpinion. SNB & CHF: A beleaguered central bank in the dangerous world of global macro and euro crisis » The Swiss National Bank and Swiss Franc Blog. Current Archive. For more information about investing in the Hussman Funds, please call us at1-800-HUSSMAN (1-800-487-7626)513-326-3551 outside the United States Site and site contents © copyright 2003 Hussman Funds.
Brief quotations including attribution and a direct link to this site (www.hussmanfunds.com) are authorized. Fact Set. Info FactSet Earnings Insight: April 11, 2014 FactSet Earnings Insight: April 4, 2014. S&P 500 Index - S&P Dow Jones Indices. GMO. Teach/Me Data Analysis. Scaling of data may be useful and/or necessary under certain circumstances (e.g. when variables span different ranges). There are several different versions of scaling, the most important of which are listed below. Scaling procedures may be applied to the full data matrix, or to parts of the matrix only (e.g. columnwise). Range Scaling Range scaling transforms the values to another range which usually includes both a shift and a change of the scale (magnification, or reduction).
The data samples are transformed according to the following equation: Crestmont Research. Japan Investment as percent of GDP. Artemis Capital Management. CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly January 2014 | Vol. 31 | No. 1 The following is the abstract from the article “Volatility: The Market Price of Uncertainty” by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital Management LLC. Today’s securities markets are pricing in yesterday’s crash, the known unknown, rather than tomorrow’s unknown unknown. To understand volatility as an asset class is to value the forward expectation of uncertainty, which is as much a function of human psychology as it is an expression of mathematics.
Edelweiss Journal - Issues. Vox Web Portal. Vox Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists Create account | Login | Subscribe Topics Most Read more. TF Market Advisors. JamesTown Foundation. PLA Joint Operations Developments and Military Reform April 9, 2014 During recent high-level political meetings, Chinese leaders have made repeated calls for “military reform.” Lowy Institute. Economics. Weblog and Essays. Bill Mitchell Blog. Hoisington.
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Alphaville » Long Room. George Magnus – Economist and Author. » About shadow PBOC. Risk Roadmap: Hedge Funds and Investors' Evolving Approach to Risk (BNY Mellon, Managed Funds Association, HedgeMark International. LLC) - Managed Funds Association. John Authers takes the "Long View", while James Mackintosh the "Short View" on investment decisions. Latest gold news articles from Ross Norman of SharpsPixley.com.
Insight into macroeconomics and the financial markets from the Financial Times. The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan by Martin Feldstein. Beyond Brics. Silberzahn & Jones. Truman Factor in English « Truman Factor. Stock Market News & Financial Analysis - Seeking Alpha. Monitoring the Global Economy. Jesse's Café Américain. China Daily. Caixin Online – News and Analysis on China's Markets, Chinese Businesses and Economics. Caixin Online. Consuming Our Way to Prosperity is Macro Folly. Michael Pettis. China Economic Review. The Sinocism China Newsletter 01.05.14. China. When the Growth Model Changes, Abandon the Correlations. Are Chinese companies sitting on the next debt crisis?
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) The PBoC’s monetary supremacy over Brazil (but don’t blame the Chinese) Gordonchang.com. News and views on emerging markets from the Financial Times. Publications.