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Stimulus ahoy! After the miserable economic data last week, and the RRR cut at the weekend, China has moved swiftly to boost domestic consumption. But don’t get too excited just yet, it’s not a repeat of the 2008 mega-stimulus. The latest step is to use Rmb26.5bn ($4.2bn) to subsidise the purchase of energy-saving white goods , like washing machines. Continue reading » China is slowing, that much is clear .
Beyond Brics
Digging in: Earthmover sales reflect risks to China’s economic growth | China SignPost™ 洞察中国
Posted: 16. Jan, 2012 Last update: 17. Jan, 2012Has China peaked? An exercise in forecasting using Neustadt and May’s History framework « Silberzahn & Jones
China has long been touted as the next leading power, and for many it seems that the question is no longer if China will overtake the US but when. Recently, however, a number of dissenting opinions have started to be heard. Economists point to the strong imbalances in China’s economy; political analysts observe that the political and social structure is unstable; human right activists warn of increasing censorship and repression, while historians suggest that, like the USSR in the late 80s, China’s communist regime has run its course and is on an unsustainable path. Indeed, “hard landing” stories about China have started to appear , by Roubini or by Gordon Chang . Like any such debate, or lack of debate (instead, it is a series of proclamations), positions are often taken being selective about facts, based on false analogies, shallow extrapolations, ideology, or just plain ignorance.
Posted: 15. Aug, 2011 Last update: 15. Aug, 2011 Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “ China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural factors will likely slow the growth of China’s economy and comprehensive national power ,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 44 (15 August 2011). –China is likely to follow an S-Curve-shaped path of slowing growth as key internal and external challenges—including pollution, corruption, chronic diseases , water shortages, growing internal security spending, and an aging population—feed off of one another and exact increasingly large costs.
China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural factors will likely slow the growth of China’s economy and comprehensive national power | China SignPost™ 洞察中国
Welcome back to China Financial Markets. We had trouble with our old host and had to set up a new one. In doing so, however, we lost most of my postings since last August along with the comments.
Michael Pettis
dshort - Advisor Perspectives
The S&P 500 posted a second day of declines after setting a new year-to-date high. Intraday the index fell below the 1,400 level and was down 1.08%. But a rally during the last 90 minutes of trading trimmed the loss to a more moderate 0.49%. The year-to-date gain now stands at 11.76%. From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 107.8% above the March 2009 closing low and 10.2% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007. The S&P 500 and the Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Index (CRX) have had a pretty decent correlation over the past few years.There are many reasons why gold is still our favorite investment – from inflation fears and sovereign debt concerns to deeper, systemic economic problems. But let’s be honest: It’s been rising for over 11 years now, and only the imprudent would fail to think about when the run might end.
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/22/2012 - 18:39 Auto Sales CDS China Consumer Sentiment Crude David Rosenberg Global Economy Housing Starts Iran Israel Merrill Michigan NAHB NFIB Payroll Data Personal Income recovery Rosenberg University Of Michigan Back in early 2011, even as the global economy was at best flatlining, the one goalseeked explanation to justify a levitating stock market (which was rising solely due to the short-term effect of transitory QE2 liquidity), was soaring corporate profitability (which only lasted as long as companies could trim some residual SG&A fat; they have now cut into the bone in terms of layoffs). This time around, with corporate margins having peaked, there had to be some other validation to explain away the "narrative" of the latest bout of central bank infused stock market levitation: it just happened that this time it was once again that old faithful, and always wrong, justification - decoupling.
naked capitalism
Yves here. I hope you’ll take the time to read this important post. There has been a great deal of discussion of the many deficiencies of the mortgage settlement, but its biggest has gone pretty much unnoticed. It isn’t just that the settlement gives the banks a close to free pass for past predatory, illegal conduct, but it also has such lax servicing standards and weak enforcement provisions so as to give the banks license to carry on with servicing abuses.Today I'm going to share a personal struggle with you. This is news I've largely kept to a small circle of close friends over the past few years and is difficult to talk about. The time has now come to enlist the support of a wider community, and perhaps together, we can make a difference. Running this site and publishing commentary as frequently as I do demands a tremendous amount of my attention.
Mish
TF Market Advisors
Lot of attention being focused on HYG and JNK today. LQD also taking a beating (on a spread basis). But the ETF’s have been massively outperforming CDS, which are actually stable today. There are CDS vs ETF trades going through. There is selling of actual bonds.April 18, 2012 Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by members of his cabinet, paid an official visit to China on April 8-11. The first by a Turkish PM in 27 years, the trip was remarkable in many ways and underlined the... Category: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Home Page, Featured, Economics, China and the Asia-Pacific, Turkey April 12, 2012
The Jamestown Foundation: China and the Asia-Pacific
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