Brazilian Bubble. Narratively: Local stories, artfully told. Bloomberg Anywhere Login. Ijapicap. Economist - GDP, Inflation - Analysis on Japanese economy by Mr. Takuji Okubo. Near zero growth in 2015 In our view, the Japanese economy is entering a period of low growth through the second half of 2014 to 2016.
We forecast that the real GDP growth will decelerate from 1.5% in 2013 to 1.0% in 2014, followed by a barely positive growth of 0.4% in 2015. Growth in Japan turning south from April 2014 Japan has enjoyed a period of robust growth, lasting more than a year, till early 2014. The Verge. The price of everything. “..Fed and ECB policies aim to reassure financial market participants rather than keeping them guessing.
In the “good old days”, before quantitative easing, forward guidance and zero real interest rates, investors, asset managers, traders and bankers were forced to make difficult but educated guesses about the opportunities and vulnerabilities in financial markets. The danger of making a bad guess was, and should remain, an important restraint on excesses and systemic risk.
“Today’s market participants are babied with excessively explicit “forward guidance”, supported by historically low interest rates and yields (especially in real terms) and central bank purchases if markets weaken. Such a “safety net” makes investors and traders so complacent they panic at any hint of normalised yield curves and real interest rates, as occurred in bond markets when chairman Ben Bernanke dared mention “tapering” in May 2013 and today’s downturn in emerging markets. Financial Market Outlook for 2013. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has just bought a second home, this one in the Hamptons, the fabled playground for New York’s bankers and hedge fund managers.
It was on the market for $33 million, and its sale in December contributed to a splurge of estate buying last year that saw record prices being set for country manors in the Hamptons. The luxury segment of the real estate market in the US had a very good year, and not just in New York. California mansions which would have sat idle two or three years ago were being snapped up in weeks, with multiple bidders pushing offers up well beyond the asking price.
Nor were expensive properties subject to a buyers’ frenzy. All throughout the US, once-devastated real estate markets saw a remarkable recovery in sales volume. Work.
S O L A R C Y C L E S. Insights and Research. Scott E.D. Skyrm. Blog > Detail. Ppola Comment: A central bank crisis. Vox has an excellent article by the LSE's De Grauwe about the austerity measures in the Eurozone periphery that were imposed by policymakers in response to a buyer's strike among sovereign bond investors.
As yields soared, particularly in Greece, there was a growing belief that the cause was high levels of public debt and structural inefficiencies, and that to bring yields down it was necessary to slash public borrowing and make structural reforms. How the Bitcoin protocol actually works. Many thousands of articles have been written purporting to explain Bitcoin, the online, peer-to-peer currency.
Most of those articles give a hand-wavy account of the underlying cryptographic protocol, omitting many details. Even those articles which delve deeper often gloss over crucial points. My aim in this post is to explain the major ideas behind the Bitcoin protocol in a clear, easily comprehensible way. We’ll start from first principles, build up to a broad theoretical understanding of how the protocol works, and then dig down into the nitty-gritty, examining the raw data in a Bitcoin transaction.
Understanding the protocol in this detailed way is hard work. The Diplomat Magazine. China has made dramatic economic progress during the last five years, weathering the global financial crisis and becoming the world’s largest exporter and second largest economy, surpassing Japan.
By James A. Dorn for The Diplomat November 29, 2013. The Atlantic Cities. Noahpinion. SNB & CHF: A beleaguered central bank in the dangerous world of global macro and euro crisis » The Swiss National Bank and Swiss Franc Blog. Current Archive. Fact Set. S&P 500 Index - S&P Dow Jones Indices. GMO. Teach/Me Data Analysis. Scaling of data may be useful and/or necessary under certain circumstances (e.g. when variables span different ranges).
There are several different versions of scaling, the most important of which are listed below. Scaling procedures may be applied to the full data matrix, or to parts of the matrix only (e.g. columnwise). Range Scaling Range scaling transforms the values to another range which usually includes both a shift and a change of the scale (magnification, or reduction). Crestmont Research. Japan Investment as percent of GDP. Artemis Capital Management. CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly January 2014 | Vol. 31 | No. 1 The following is the abstract from the article “Volatility: The Market Price of Uncertainty” by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital Management LLC.
Today’s securities markets are pricing in yesterday’s crash, the known unknown, rather than tomorrow’s unknown unknown. To understand volatility as an asset class is to value the forward expectation of uncertainty, which is as much a function of human psychology as it is an expression of mathematics. Economics. Bill Mitchell Blog. Weblog and Essays. The Alienation of Work April 15, 2014 The emerging economy is opening up new ways to reconnect workers to their work and the profits from their work.
One of the most striking blind spots in our collective angst over the lack of jobs is our apparent disinterest in the nature of work and how work creates value. Hoisington. Edelweiss Journal - Issues. Vox Web Portal. TF Market Advisors. JamesTown Foundation. PLA Joint Operations Developments and Military Reform April 9, 2014 During recent high-level political meetings, Chinese leaders have made repeated calls for “military reform.”
Lowy Institute. Applying Common Sense to the Markets. International ETFs. Investment case US Stocks When you step back and take a look at US Equity performance for this decade, you pretty quickly come to the conclusion that there's gotta be a better way. Value Investing. Fed President - Taxes. My Investing Notebook. ZeroHedge. Marc to Market. Naked capitalism. Sober Look. Mish.
Macro Business. For a long time, we have suggested that because of China’s GDP growth being driven primarily by investment, the end result will inevitably be over-capacity. This has been apparent in industries such a ssteel, machinery and others (now even Caterpillar is exporting overcapacity in China, so to speak). We also believe that the construction boom after the 2008/09 stimulus has already led to over-building of residential real estate. The only problem we all have is that there are no accurate official statistics in China (like those in the US) that we are aware of for capacity utilisation. A recent staff report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows an estimate of capacity utilisation in China.
Interestingly, according to IMF’s estimation, China has been operating below capacity (albeit not unreasonably) even at the peak right before the 2008/09 financial crisis, and that was supported by external demand which no longer quite exists now. From the IMF (page 24 box 8 of Staff Report): The Big Picture. PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM. The Abenomics train has charged out of the station. This article has been corrected. Markets are cheering the results of Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s first policy meeting. Kuroda, installed by prime minister Shinzo Abe, has convinced the rest of the central bank it is time to launch an aggressive monetary easing program to pull Japan out of decades of recession and deflation. The BoJ is going to purchase a massive $746 billion worth of bonds a month—double the current rate—to flood the economy with cash.
That could help the central bank reach its 2% inflation target, and would be a huge achievement, as Japanese consumer prices have been on a slow and steady crawl downwards since 1997. The central bank also announced plans to temporarily suspend the so-called bank note rule, which kept government bond purchases below the amount of currency in circulation. Humble Student of the Markets. The Options and Volatility ETPs Landscape. For several years I have publishing a graphical overview of the VIX ETPs landscape, with all the ETPs plotted on the basis of leverage and target maturity, such as the recent VIX ETP Returns for 2012.
Lately, however, an expanding crop of options and volatility ETPs has been taking root in a space that is closer to the VIX products than any of the other ETPs. Site Map. Investors Intelligence - technical analysis of stocks, ETFs, currencies and commodities. State of Working America. Pension Partners AdvisorBlog™ “Dow, S&P 500 close at new record highs” – Every Major Financial Publication, June 2, 2014 You wouldn’t know it after reading any major financial publication yesterday, but the average U.S. stock is down over -1% thus far in 2014. Salient. August 8, 2014. Sigmund Holmes — Investment Partners. Marginal REVOLUTION — Small Steps Towards A Much Better World. Where the truth comes home to roost. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.
Cliff's Perspective. George Magnus – Economist and Author. Alphaville. A blog from the Financial Times. Chart of NYSE Composite vs % of NYSE Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average » Stock Market Indicators. The Wall Street Examiner.
Alphaville » Long Room. Risk Roadmap: Hedge Funds and Investors' Evolving Approach to Risk (BNY Mellon, Managed Funds Association, HedgeMark International. LLC) - Managed Funds Association. These continue to be challenging times for hedge fund managers. Regulatory scrutiny is up, public understanding remains low, and even institutional uncertainty about the global economy has negatively impacted the industry. The hedge fund manager must now tread ever more carefully between the concentric boundaries of risk aversion and risk acceptance to achieve goals consistent with a particular fund’s stated purpose, pedigree, and assets.
It is beyond question that the credit crisis of 2007-09 dramatically highlighted the importance of scrutinizing, re-assessing, and enhancing risk management practices throughout the entire financial sector, including hedge funds. » About shadow PBOC. “Shadow PBoC” is a weekly economics seminar held at China’s Peking University. The seminar focuses on Chinese monetary policy and macroeconomics. Topics include central banking, equity and bond markets in China, the Chinese shadow banking system, Chinese government and household debt, interest rate liberalization, RMB internationalization, and many more. John Authers takes the "Long View", while James Mackintosh the "Short View" on investment decisions. Latest gold news articles from Ross Norman of SharpsPixley.com. Insight into macroeconomics and the financial markets from the Financial Times. The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan by Martin Feldstein.
Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space. Beyond Brics. China: first global “megatrader” since the British empire. Silberzahn & Jones. Truman Factor in English « Truman Factor. Stock Market News & Financial Analysis - Seeking Alpha. Monitoring the Global Economy. Jesse's Café Américain. China Daily. Caixin Online – News and Analysis on China's Markets, Chinese Businesses and Economics.
Caixin Online. Consuming Our Way to Prosperity is Macro Folly. Michael Pettis. China Economic Review. The Sinocism China Newsletter 01.05.14. China. When the Growth Model Changes, Abandon the Correlations. Are Chinese companies sitting on the next debt crisis? Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
The PBoC’s monetary supremacy over Brazil (but don’t blame the Chinese) Gordonchang.com. News and views on emerging markets from the Financial Times. Publications.