Brazilian Bubble. Narratively: Local stories, artfully told. Bloomberg Anywhere Login. Ijapicap. Economist - GDP, Inflation - Analysis on Japanese economy by Mr. Takuji Okubo. Near zero growth in 2015 In our view, the Japanese economy is entering a period of low growth through the second half of 2014 to 2016.
We forecast that the real GDP growth will decelerate from 1.5% in 2013 to 1.0% in 2014, followed by a barely positive growth of 0.4% in 2015. Growth in Japan turning south from April 2014 Japan has enjoyed a period of robust growth, lasting more than a year, till early 2014. However, Q2 2014 would be the turning point for the economy. Policy makers seem out of touch with the reality. In early 2015, Prime Minister Abe will face a difficult choice of whether to cancel the scheduled consumption tax rate hike to 10% in October 2015. The Verge.
The price of everything. “..Fed and ECB policies aim to reassure financial market participants rather than keeping them guessing.
In the “good old days”, before quantitative easing, forward guidance and zero real interest rates, investors, asset managers, traders and bankers were forced to make difficult but educated guesses about the opportunities and vulnerabilities in financial markets. The danger of making a bad guess was, and should remain, an important restraint on excesses and systemic risk. “Today’s market participants are babied with excessively explicit “forward guidance”, supported by historically low interest rates and yields (especially in real terms) and central bank purchases if markets weaken. Financial Market Outlook for 2013. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has just bought a second home, this one in the Hamptons, the fabled playground for New York’s bankers and hedge fund managers.
It was on the market for $33 million, and its sale in December contributed to a splurge of estate buying last year that saw record prices being set for country manors in the Hamptons. The luxury segment of the real estate market in the US had a very good year, and not just in New York. California mansions which would have sat idle two or three years ago were being snapped up in weeks, with multiple bidders pushing offers up well beyond the asking price. Work.
S O L A R C Y C L E S. Insights and Research. Scott E.D. Skyrm. Blog > Detail. The new deal on Cyprus does not only have the right intentions, but averts the two major flaws of the previous deal: It fully protects insured deposits up to the €100,000 amount guaranteed by deposit insurance in all banks, andIt bails-in all bondholders and shareholders.
The deal has other remarkable elements as well: Marfin Laiki Popular Bank (the second biggest bank accounting for about one-third of banking assets in Cyprus), the most troubled bank, will be closed down immediately with full contribution of shareholders, bondholders and uninsured depositors. The deal is victory of common sense. Ppola Comment: A central bank crisis. How the Bitcoin protocol actually works. Many thousands of articles have been written purporting to explain Bitcoin, the online, peer-to-peer currency.
Most of those articles give a hand-wavy account of the underlying cryptographic protocol, omitting many details. Even those articles which delve deeper often gloss over crucial points. The Diplomat Magazine. China has made dramatic economic progress during the last five years, weathering the global financial crisis and becoming the world’s largest exporter and second largest economy, surpassing Japan.
By James A. Dorn for The Diplomat November 29, 2013. The Atlantic Cities. Noahpinion. SNB & CHF: A beleaguered central bank in the dangerous world of global macro and euro crisis » The Swiss National Bank and Swiss Franc Blog. Current Archive. Fact Set. S&P 500 Index - S&P Dow Jones Indices. GMO. Teach/Me Data Analysis. Crestmont Research. Japan Investment as percent of GDP. Artemis Capital Management. Economics. Bill Mitchell Blog. The Weekend Quiz – March 5-6, 2016.
Weblog and Essays. Higher Education Is Morally and Financially Bankrupt March 31, 2016 A system that piles debt on students in exchange for a marginal or even zero-return on their investment is morally and financially bankrupt.
Every once in a while you run across an insider's narrative of a corrupt, morally bankrupt sector that absolutely nails the sector's terminal rot. Here is that nails-it narrative for higher education: Pass, Fail: An inside look at the retail scam known as the modern university. Here are excerpts of the article, which was published in Canada but is equally applicable to higher education in the U.S. Hoisington. Edelweiss Journal - Issues. Vox Web Portal. TF Market Advisors. JamesTown Foundation. PLA Joint Operations Developments and Military Reform April 9, 2014 During recent high-level political meetings, Chinese leaders have made repeated calls for “military reform.”
Lowy Institute. Applying Common Sense to the Markets. International ETFs. Investment case.
Value Investing. Fed President - Taxes. My Investing Notebook. ZeroHedge. Marc to Market. Naked capitalism. Sober Look. Mish. Macro Business. For a long time, we have suggested that because of China’s GDP growth being driven primarily by investment, the end result will inevitably be over-capacity. This has been apparent in industries such a ssteel, machinery and others (now even Caterpillar is exporting overcapacity in China, so to speak). We also believe that the construction boom after the 2008/09 stimulus has already led to over-building of residential real estate.
The only problem we all have is that there are no accurate official statistics in China (like those in the US) that we are aware of for capacity utilisation. A recent staff report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows an estimate of capacity utilisation in China. The Big Picture.
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM. The Abenomics train has charged out of the station. This article has been corrected. Markets are cheering the results of Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s first policy meeting. Kuroda, installed by prime minister Shinzo Abe, has convinced the rest of the central bank it is time to launch an aggressive monetary easing program to pull Japan out of decades of recession and deflation. The BoJ is going to purchase a massive $746 billion worth of bonds a month—double the current rate—to flood the economy with cash. Humble Student of the Markets. The Options and Volatility ETPs Landscape.
Site Map. Investors Intelligence - technical analysis of stocks, ETFs, currencies and commodities. State of Working America. Pension Partners AdvisorBlog™ “Dow, S&P 500 close at new record highs” – Every Major Financial Publication, June 2, 2014. Salient. August 8, 2014. Sigmund Holmes — Investment Partners. Marginal REVOLUTION — Small Steps Towards A Much Better World. Where the truth comes home to roost. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Cliff's Perspective. George Magnus – Economist and Author.
Alphaville. A blog from the Financial Times. Chart of NYSE Composite vs % of NYSE Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average » Stock Market Indicators. The Wall Street Examiner.
Alphaville » Long Room. Risk Roadmap: Hedge Funds and Investors' Evolving Approach to Risk (BNY Mellon, Managed Funds Association, HedgeMark International. LLC) - Managed Funds Association. These continue to be challenging times for hedge fund managers. Regulatory scrutiny is up, public understanding remains low, and even institutional uncertainty about the global economy has negatively impacted the industry.
» About shadow PBOC. “Shadow PBoC” is a weekly economics seminar held at China’s Peking University. The seminar focuses on Chinese monetary policy and macroeconomics. Topics include central banking, equity and bond markets in China, the Chinese shadow banking system, Chinese government and household debt, interest rate liberalization, RMB internationalization, and many more. John Authers takes the "Long View", while James Mackintosh the "Short View" on investment decisions. Latest gold news articles from Ross Norman of SharpsPixley.com.
Insight into macroeconomics and the financial markets from the Financial Times. The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan by Martin Feldstein. Beyond Brics. Silberzahn & Jones. Truman Factor in English « Truman Factor. Stock Market News & Financial Analysis - Seeking Alpha. Monitoring the Global Economy.
Jesse's Café Américain. China Daily. Caixin Online – News and Analysis on China's Markets, Chinese Businesses and Economics. Caixin Online. Consuming Our Way to Prosperity is Macro Folly. Michael Pettis. China Economic Review. The Sinocism China Newsletter 01.05.14. China. When the Growth Model Changes, Abandon the Correlations. Are Chinese companies sitting on the next debt crisis? Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) The PBoC’s monetary supremacy over Brazil (but don’t blame the Chinese) Gordonchang.com. News and views on emerging markets from the Financial Times. Publications.