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Bilan hebdo: volatilité, stabilité des marchés, les flux spéculatifs...,Philippe Béchade et Jean-Louis Cussac, dans Intégrale Bourse –- 25/10

Bilan hebdo: volatilité, stabilité des marchés, les flux spéculatifs...,Philippe Béchade et Jean-Louis Cussac, dans Intégrale Bourse –- 25/10

Mainstream economics is in denial: the world has changed | Aditya Chakrabortty Rebellions aren't meant to kick off in lecture theatres – but I saw one last Thursday night. It was small and well-read and it minded its Ps & Qs, and I think I shall remember it for some time. We'd gathered at Downing College, Cambridge, to discuss the economic crisis, although the quotidian misery of that topic seemed a world away from the honeyed quads and endowment plush of this place. Equally incongruous were the speakers. What followed was angry agreement. In one of the world's elite institutions, the elites were taking a pasting – from accountants, entrepreneurs and academics. One of the central facts of post-crash Britain is that the elites still hold power, but no longer command the credibility to wield it. But at the same time, the elites – whether in Whitehall or the City – remain in charge. As Bateman points out, by rights these PhD-armed boosters of The Great Moderation should have been widely discredited after the crash. How do elites remain in charge?

Economist Mark Zandi on Default: "We Will Be Dooming Our Economy and the Entire Global Economy" for Years On Monday, I took a shot at Sarah Palin after she wrote, "To suggest that raising the debt limit doesn't incur more debt is laughably absurd. The very reason why you raise the debt limit is so that you can incur more debt. Otherwise what's the point?" In a tweet, I noted, "No, you do it so you can pay the debt you accrued." That is, the government's debt is not created by the extension of borrowing authority; it is created when Congress establishes entitlements or passes spending bills that require government borrowing. If you sign a tuition contract with a college for your kid and need to take out a loan to cover all or part of it, you assume a debt when you enter into that agreement, not when you go to the bank and ask for an extended line of credit. Nevertheless, a mass of conservative trolls rushed to Palin's defense and howled about my tweet. The point is that with each passing day the debt limit is not increased the more damage it will do to our economy. Whoa.

"La finance dérégulée nous condamne aux krachs" Un bureau grand comme un mouchoir de poche, grignoté par des piles de dossiers et des rayonnages de livres. Et un pupitre pour tout meuble, surplombé d'une affiche au titre ironique : Manifeste des "sagesses boursières"... jamais respectées. Justement, les folies financières et les bulles de marché, André Orléan, professeur à l'Ecole d'économie de Paris, les scrute et les dissèque depuis longtemps à la façon d'un biologiste. Mouvements erratiques des actions, chute de l'or, recul des marchés émergents, bulle sur quelques obligations d'Etat... Non. Cette situation est fort risquée. Ces phénomènes de contagion psychologique donnent aux actifs un "faux prix", trop élevé pour les produits les plus sûrs, trop bas pour les autres. Les marchés boursiers nous condamneraient alors à passer d'une bulle spéculative à l'autre, sans répit... Pouvez-vous nous en dire un peu plus sur ce paradoxe? L'univers très mimétique des marchés financiers produirait donc par nature des bulles et des krachs?

Le Trésor américain accusé d’avoir vendu le monde aux banquiers Lorsqu’il a obtenu ce mémo [PDF], l’écrivain et journaliste d’investigation américain Greg Palast « n’arrivait simplement pas à y croire ». Selon lui, ce document – qu’il affirme authentique – est digne des pires théories complotistes : « A la fin des années 1990, les hauts fonctionnaires du Trésor américain ont conspiré en secret avec une petite cabale de gros bonnets du secteur bancaire pour tailler en pièces la régulation financière dans le monde entier. » Capture d’écran du mémo Greg Palast ne précise pas comment il a authentifié le document, mais avec sa longue carrière d’enquêteur pour des cabinets d’audit anti-trust et anticorruption, et de nombreuses investigations pour la BBC, The Observer et The Guardian, il ne fait aucun doute que ses preuves sont solides. Une cabale politico-financière Ce mémorandum ne serait donc rien de moins que la genèse de la crise financière mondiale et du « sang et des larmes » qui en ont coulé. Daté du 24 novembre 1997, son auteur Timothy F.

Bank of America: Too Crooked to Fail | Politics News By Matt Taibbi | At least Bank of America got its name right. The ultimate Too Big to Fail bank really is America, a hypergluttonous ward of the state whose limitless fraud and criminal conspiracies we'll all be paying for until the end of time. Did you hear about the plot to rig global interest rates? The $137 million fine for bilking needy schools and cities? The ingenious plan to suck multiple fees out of the unemployment checks of jobless workers? It's been four years since the government, in the name of preventing a depression, saved this megabank from ruin by pumping $45 billion of taxpayer money into its arm. But despite being the very definition of an unaccountable corporate villain, Bank of America is now bigger and more dangerous than ever. All the government bailouts succeeded in doing was to make the bank even more prone to catastrophic failure – and now that catastrophe might finally be at hand. But these laws didn't sit well with Hugh McColl. And why?

Is it time to join the 'preppers'? How to survive the climate-change apocalypse | World news We are getting close to what might be called The Noah Scenario. Last month was the wettest January in Britain since records began in 1767. So far this month has been no different, and the Met Office expects the wind and rain to continue until March. Climate change may be a gradual process, but people who live on the Somerset Levels or the banks of the Thames are getting a very sudden education in the value of arks. It's unlikely that these floods will be the last such catastrophe, or the worst. Climate scientists expect bigger and more frequent extreme weather events throughout the coming century – not just wind and rain, but droughts as well. When do I abandon my home? When you have no choice. "It would be the last resort for me," says Steve, a 57-year-old prepper from Essex, who runs When the moment comes, however, you may not have much warning, so it is important to keep what preppers call a "bug-out bag" ready at all times. Should I move to Cumbria?

AND THE BAND PLAYED ON A confluence of events last week has me reminiscing about the days gone by and apprehensive about the future. I’ve spent a substantial portion of my adulthood rushing to baseball fields, hockey rinks, gymnasiums, and school auditoriums after a long day at work. I’d be lying if I said I enjoyed every moment. My youngest son was one of a hundred kids in the 8th grade choir. The Millennial generation was born between 1982 and 2004. Are Millennials addicted to their iGadgets, cell phones and Facebook pages? There are no Millennials among the 535 corrupt bought off politicians slithering down the halls of Congress. The Millennials will also be required to do the heavy lifting over the next fifteen years of this Fourth Turning Crisis. Generational Bridge “The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The kids on the stage at the 8th grade Spring concert were all around 14 years old. Generational Sacrifice

C’est la bulle finale J'avais consacré l'édito du 14 mai dernier du Contrarien Matin à « la bulle finale ». Voilà ce que je disais il y a presque quinze jours sur la notion de peur qui, quand elle disparaît, montre et démontre que nous sommes en pleine bulle financière : « La définition d'une bulle, c'est lorsque les « zinvestisseurs » n'ont plus peur de rien, qu'ils n'ont plus peur de perdre, qu'il y a un sentiment général où on ne « peut que gagner ». C'est une définition simple, très simple, mais c'est la meilleure. Le sentiment de peur fait partie de tout être humain. Lorsque l'on ne perçoit plus le danger, on peut dire que nos sens physiques ou psychiques sont altérés et cela aura pour conséquence directe une diminution considérable de notre espérance de vie. » Un beau gadin au Japon ! Pour rester dans l'histoire, il faut savoir que ce genre de configurations techniques signe en général un renversement durable de tendance sur fond d'un retour de la peur. La peur, le retour ! Alors pourquoi en sortir ?