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Forget The Wisdom of Crowds; Neurobiologists Reveal The Wisdom Of The Confident

Forget The Wisdom of Crowds; Neurobiologists Reveal The Wisdom Of The Confident
Way back in 1906, the English polymath Francis Galton visited a country fair in which 800 people took part in a contest to guess the weight of a slaughtered ox. After the fair, he collected the guesses and calculated their average which turned out to be 1208 pounds. To Galton’s surprise, this was within 1 per cent of the true weight of 1198 pounds. This is one of the earliest examples of a phenomenon that has come to be known as the wisdom of the crowd. The idea is that the collective opinion of a group of individuals can be better than a single expert opinion. This phenomenon is commonplace today on websites such as Reddit in which users vote on the importance of particular stories and the most popular are given greater prominence. However, anyone familiar with Reddit will know that the collective opinion isn’t always wise. It turns out that if a crowd offers a wide range of independent estimates, then it is more likely to be wise. The theory behind their work is straightforward.

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‘Wisdom of the crowd’: The myths and realities Is The Lord of the Rings the greatest work of literature of the 20th Century? Is The Shawshank Redemption the best movie ever made? Both have been awarded these titles by public votes. You don’t have to be a literary or film snob to wonder about the wisdom of so-called ‘wisdom of the crowd’. In an age routinely denounced as selfishly individualistic, it’s curious that a great deal of faith still seems to lie with the judgement of the crowd, especially when it can apparently be far off the mark. Yet there is some truth underpinning the idea that the masses can make more accurate collective judgements than expert individuals.

A Misunderstanding of Talent: Unlocking Great Leadership Potential in the New Global Context  Perhaps one of the greatest surprises of our modern global society is not that the pace of change has quickened considerably, but that we as a society may have gotten ahead of ourselves in being able to sustain the change that we have created. As world leaders gathered for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week, they focused on this New Global Context: a world that is increasingly more global, inter-connected and converged than ever before thanks to advancements across technology, research capabilities and greater transparency. The ability to respond to, predict and operate in this era of constant change, however, continues to be one of society's most vexing challenges. At the center of this man-made dilemma is finding the right human power at the highest levels of leadership in business and government needed to successfully navigate within what is this "new normal." Global thinkers on leadership have even remarked that there are fewer leaders today.

COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE It's also possible for groups of people to work together in ways that seem pretty stupid, and I think collective stupidity is just as possible as collective intelligence. Part of what I want to understand and part of what the people I'm working with want to understand is what are the conditions that lead to collective intelligence rather than collective stupidity. But in whatever form, either intelligence or stupidity, this collective behavior has existed for a long time. Five Questions Every Leader Should Ask About Organizational Design A few years ago Dave Ulrich, a management thought leader from the University of Michigan, made a comment I found both insightful and profound: “Every leader needs to have a model of organization design.” Typically a graphic depiction of the organizational components to be addressed in a redesign (for example, McKinsey’s 7S model, which includes strategy, structure, systems, staff, skills, and so on), every consultant and his brother flogs an organization design model. Dave didn’t advocate any particular design model, just one the leader knows how to employ and one flexible enough to be applied to the range of organizational situations a leader faces in the course of a career. Once upon a time, “organization design” meant bringing in a slew of consultants to oversee a large-scale organizational restructuring, most often intended to take out big chunks of cost during an economic downturn. What is the business’s value proposition and it sources of competitive advantage?

Harnessing the Collective Intelligence of the Crowd: Be a Curator Not an Expert - Prodigy Network - EN Last month at PSFK’s annual conference Prodigy Network’s Founder and CEO, Rodrigo Niño, spoke about the power of the collective intelligence, and posed the following question, “How can we better utilize the intelligence of the crowd to create positive change in our society?” Niño cited two contrasting examples to support his statement. The first was a video of George Papandreou, the former Prime Minister of Greece, speaking about the financial instability in Greece at TEDGlobal.

This CEO Fought For Better Wages At His Company. Guess What Happened. Mark Bertolini, CEO of Aetna, explained how he increased wages for his workers, arguing that taking better care of his employees would in turn lead to better care for Aetna's customers. Bertolini told HuffPost Live at Davos his company increased wages and adjusted benefits in order to give its employees a better quality of life. "Not everybody should be at $16 an hour, there may be people who need to be higher," Bertolini said, noting people's lifestyles are directly impacted by how they are paid. Bertolini's company also implemented yoga and mindfulness practices at work and studied the effect they had on the employees. "After we completed the [yoga] course, the results were amazing," Bertolini said, saying in addition to weight loss and happier workers, there was an increase in productivity by 69 minutes a month.

Making Dumb Groups Smarter - HBR Since the beginning of human history, people have made decisions in groups. As the saying goes, two heads are better than one. If so, then three heads should be better than two, and four better still. Do Leaders Matter? We love this sort of story: A company is in trouble. A charismatic leader swoops in. He or she makes big changes, and while people resist at first, they come around. Losses turn to profits. Profits turn to industry leadership. A troubled company is saved.

I came to the Good Judgment Project (GJP) two years ago, in Season 2, as a forecaster, excited about contributing to an important research project and curious to learn more about my skill at prediction. I did pretty well at the latter, and GJP did very well at the former. I’m also a political scientist who happened to have more time on my hands than many of my colleagues, because I work as an independent consultant and didn’t have a full plate at that point. So, in Season 3, the project hired me to work as one of its lead question writers. Meet the Apple Executive Who Makes More Money Than CEO Tim Cook <br/><a href=" News Videos</a> | <a href=" World News</a> Copy One of the most powerful women in technology has out-earned her boss, Apple CEO Tim Cook. Angela Ahrendts, Apple's senior vice president of retail and online stores, earned a hefty $73 million pay package in 2014, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. After a banner year at Apple, with the release of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, Cook earned an incentive bonus that brought his compensation to $9.2 million -- double of what he received the previous year.

Chinese Thinking and Complexity By Greg Fisher Last week I attended an excellent conference in Singapore, which had the intriguing title of “A Crude Look at the Whole”. The title was attributable to Murray Gell-Man who was one of the founding fathers of the Santa Fe Institute and also the winner of the 1969 Nobel Prize in Physics. Gell-Man is famous for a few things, including being the first to postulate the existence of quarks.

Top 10 Female CEOs & Influential Business Women of American Companies The content on is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. References to products, offers, and rates from third party sites often change. While we do our best to keep these updated, numbers stated on this site may differ from actual numbers. We may have financial relationships with some of the companies mentioned on this website.