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Great Transition Initiative

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Global Culture The Great Transition (beyond carbon) If there is one thing that defines the 21st century, it is the end of oil. But not just oil. Over the coming decades, we face the prospect of terminal depletion of the world’s major mineral energy reserves, with major ramifications for the future of industrial civilization. A survey of about a hundred of the world’s most respected petroleum geologists by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil found that the vast majority expected world oil production to peak between 2010 and 2020. Furthermore, it found that “the ‘peak’ is more likely to look like a bump on a long ridge than the classic bell-shaped curve”. But the data suggests we may have already peaked. “The plateau in world production over half a decade is unprecedented and suggests we have already started on the “long ridge” whose overall trajectory, despite fluctuations, will be inexorably downwards.” It is still falling. Does size matter? Dallas petroleum geologist Jeffrey J. More than crude The transition before us

Great Transition The Great Transition is a term used by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) to describe a vision of a just and sustainable global future.[1] The term was originally used by Kenneth E. Bouldings in The Meaning of the 20th Century - The Great Transition, Harper Colophon Books Copyright 1964, considered a hallmark conception of systems thinking and the shift from pre-modern to post-modern culture and the four possible traps that will allow humanity to successful journey the Great Transition. The elements of the Great Transition vision include egalitarian social and ecological values, increased human interconnectedness, improved quality of life, and a healthy planet, as well as an absence of poverty, war, and environmental destruction.[2] The Great Transition concept has been adopted by numerous individuals and organizations in the sustainability sphere, most notably by Jigmi Y. Background[edit] Alternative scenarios[edit] Conventional Worlds[edit] Barbarization[edit] Great Transition[edit]

Cosmopolitanism Cosmopolitanism is the ideology that all human beings belong to a single community, based on a shared morality. A person who adheres to the idea of cosmopolitanism in any of its forms is called a cosmopolitan or cosmopolite. A cosmopolitan community might be based on an inclusive morality, a shared economic relationship, or a political structure that encompasses different nations. In a cosmopolitan community individuals from different places (e.g. nation-states) form relationships of mutual respect. As an example, Kwame Anthony Appiah suggests the possibility of a cosmopolitan community in which individuals from varying locations (physical, economic, etc.) enter relationships of mutual respect despite their differing beliefs (religious, political, etc.).[1] Various cities and locales, past or present, have or are defined as "cosmopolitan"; that does not necessarily mean that all or most of their inhabitants consciously embrace the above philosophy. Etymology[edit] Definitions[edit]

Transition scenario Transition scenarios are descriptions of future states which combine a future image with an account of the changes that would need to occur to reach that future. These two elements are often created in a two-step process where the future image is created first (envisioning) followed by an exploration of the alternative pathways available to reach the future goal (backcasting). Both these processes can use participatory techniques (Raskin et al., 2002[1]) where participants of varying backgrounds and interests are provided with an open and supportive group environment to discuss different contributing elements and actions. Transition scenarios are unique in type not only in terms of how they are created (process) but also their content. Their requirements are guided by transition management concepts and consider the “fundamental and irreversible change in the culture, structure and practices of a system.” Scenario types[edit] First generation[edit] Second generation[edit] Content[edit]

Environmental governance Environmental governance is a concept in political ecology and environmental policy that advocates sustainability (sustainable development) as the supreme consideration for managing all human activities—political, social and economic.[1] Governance includes government, business and civil society, and emphasizes whole system management. To capture this diverse range of elements, environmental governance often employs alternative systems of governance, for example watershed-based management.[2] It views natural resources and the environment as global public goods, belonging to the category of goods that are not diminished when they are shared.[3] This means that everyone benefits from for example, a breathable atmosphere, stable climate and stable biodiversity. Public goods are non-rivalrous—a natural resource enjoyed by one person can still be enjoyed by others—and non-excludable—it is impossible to prevent someone consuming the good (breathing). Definitions[edit] Challenges[edit]

Anti-nationalism Anti-nationalism denotes the sentiments associated with the opposition to nationalism. Some anti-nationalists are humanitarians or humanists who pursue an idealist form of world community, and self-identify as world citizens. They reject chauvinism, jingoism and militarism, and want humans to live in peace rather than perpetual conflict.[citation needed] The Abrahamic religions of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism offer a critique of territory-based nationalism that recognizes nationalism as a form of compelled pagan religious belief, as articulated in a range of sources, including the University of Columbia academic and pioneer of innationalism studies Carlton Hayes in his 1960 text Nationalism: A Religion.[citation needed] The imposition of nationalism as a belief or identity system, particularly when in conflict with more established and self-sustaining identity choices can be understood to undermine the legitimacy of territory-based nationalism. Cases of Anti-Nationalism[edit]

Scenario analysis Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds"). Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents consciously several alternative future developments. Principle[edit] The analysis is designed to allow improved decision-making by allowing consideration of outcomes and their implications. Scenario analysis can also be used to illuminate "wild cards." Financial applications[edit] For example, in economics and finance, a financial institution might attempt to forecast several possible scenarios for the economy (e.g. rapid growth, moderate growth, slow growth) and it might also attempt to forecast financial market returns (for bonds, stocks and cash) in each of those scenarios. Depending on the complexity of the problem scenario analysis can be a demanding exercise. Geopolitical applications[edit]

La Gouvernance, entre innovation et impuissance 1Le terme de « gouvernance » s’est imposé au cours des années 90 comme le symbole d’une nouvelle modernité dans les modes d’action publique et le gouvernement des entreprises ; et est devenu, en quelques années, un des lieux communs du vocabulaire de l’aménagement du territoire. Si récemment l’affaire ENRON a pu contribuer à en démystifier les promesses, les critiques - même justifiées - qu’a pu susciter ce concept1 ne doivent pas faire oublier la part incontestable d’innovation démocratique qu’il recèle. Le domaine de l’environnement, qui a joué sur ce thème un rôle précurseur, est sans doute celui où l’on mesure le mieux cette ambiguïté. Et c’est ce qui justifie qu’il soit pris ici comme exemple – d’autant que les points communs avec l’aménagement du territoire sont, comme on le constatera, multiples. 3Cet essor tout particulier des nouvelles formes de gouvernance dans le champ de l’environnement s’explique aisément par au moins trois raisons convergentes : 1.1. 1. 2. 1.3. 1.4. 2.1.

Gouvernement mondial Un article de Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. Schéma d'une possible organisation territorial d'un état mondial. Un gouvernement mondial désigne l'instauration d'un gouvernement global sur l'ensemble de la Terre. Bien qu'un tel gouvernement puisse en théorie prendre plusieurs formes (celle d'un empire par exemple), la thèse principalement rencontrée, qui compte tenu de l'ampleur des ressources que nécessiterait la direction de milliards de gens par la force, est celle d'un gouvernement démocratique et fédéraliste, idée qui s'oppose à la thèse inverse, selon laquelle seule une approche totalitaire pourrait engendrer un gouvernement mondial. Cette thématique est très présente dans les théories du complot actuelles. Principe fédéral[modifier | modifier le code] De plus, pour des raisons pratiques similaires, une structure gouvernementale hiérarchisée serait nécessaire (telle celle présentée sur l'illustration par exemple). Motivations[modifier | modifier le code]

Global Scenario Group The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century.[1] The GSG’s underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated scenario analysis that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the PoleStar Project. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, PoleStar was inspired by the 1987 Brundtland Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, which first put the concept of “sustainable development” on the international agenda.[2] The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. Scenarios[edit] Conventional Worlds[edit] Barbarization[edit] Breakdown: The world descends into conflict and collapse. See also[edit]

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