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Great Transition Initiative

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The Great Transition (beyond carbon) If there is one thing that defines the 21st century, it is the end of oil. But not just oil. Over the coming decades, we face the prospect of terminal depletion of the world’s major mineral energy reserves, with major ramifications for the future of industrial civilization. A survey of about a hundred of the world’s most respected petroleum geologists by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil found that the vast majority expected world oil production to peak between 2010 and 2020. Furthermore, it found that “the ‘peak’ is more likely to look like a bump on a long ridge than the classic bell-shaped curve”. But the data suggests we may have already peaked. “The plateau in world production over half a decade is unprecedented and suggests we have already started on the “long ridge” whose overall trajectory, despite fluctuations, will be inexorably downwards.” It is still falling. Does size matter? Dallas petroleum geologist Jeffrey J. More than crude The transition before us

Great Transition The Great Transition is a term used by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) to describe a vision of a just and sustainable global future.[1] The term was originally used by Kenneth E. Bouldings in The Meaning of the 20th Century - The Great Transition, Harper Colophon Books Copyright 1964, considered a hallmark conception of systems thinking and the shift from pre-modern to post-modern culture and the four possible traps that will allow humanity to successful journey the Great Transition. The elements of the Great Transition vision include egalitarian social and ecological values, increased human interconnectedness, improved quality of life, and a healthy planet, as well as an absence of poverty, war, and environmental destruction.[2] The Great Transition concept has been adopted by numerous individuals and organizations in the sustainability sphere, most notably by Jigmi Y. Background[edit] Alternative scenarios[edit] Conventional Worlds[edit] Barbarization[edit] Great Transition[edit]

Fundación Bariloche - desde 1963-Mozilla Firefox Transition scenario Transition scenarios are descriptions of future states which combine a future image with an account of the changes that would need to occur to reach that future. These two elements are often created in a two-step process where the future image is created first (envisioning) followed by an exploration of the alternative pathways available to reach the future goal (backcasting). Both these processes can use participatory techniques (Raskin et al., 2002[1]) where participants of varying backgrounds and interests are provided with an open and supportive group environment to discuss different contributing elements and actions. Transition scenarios are unique in type not only in terms of how they are created (process) but also their content. Their requirements are guided by transition management concepts and consider the “fundamental and irreversible change in the culture, structure and practices of a system.” Scenario types[edit] First generation[edit] Second generation[edit] Content[edit]

Environmental governance Environmental governance is a concept in political ecology and environmental policy that advocates sustainability (sustainable development) as the supreme consideration for managing all human activities—political, social and economic.[1] Governance includes government, business and civil society, and emphasizes whole system management. To capture this diverse range of elements, environmental governance often employs alternative systems of governance, for example watershed-based management.[2] It views natural resources and the environment as global public goods, belonging to the category of goods that are not diminished when they are shared.[3] This means that everyone benefits from for example, a breathable atmosphere, stable climate and stable biodiversity. Public goods are non-rivalrous—a natural resource enjoyed by one person can still be enjoyed by others—and non-excludable—it is impossible to prevent someone consuming the good (breathing). Definitions[edit] Challenges[edit]

COMMEND: Community for Energy, Environment and Development-Mozilla Firefox Scenario analysis Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds"). Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents consciously several alternative future developments. Principle[edit] The analysis is designed to allow improved decision-making by allowing consideration of outcomes and their implications. Scenario analysis can also be used to illuminate "wild cards." Financial applications[edit] For example, in economics and finance, a financial institution might attempt to forecast several possible scenarios for the economy (e.g. rapid growth, moderate growth, slow growth) and it might also attempt to forecast financial market returns (for bonds, stocks and cash) in each of those scenarios. Depending on the complexity of the problem scenario analysis can be a demanding exercise. Geopolitical applications[edit]

La Gouvernance, entre innovation et impuissance 1Le terme de « gouvernance » s’est imposé au cours des années 90 comme le symbole d’une nouvelle modernité dans les modes d’action publique et le gouvernement des entreprises ; et est devenu, en quelques années, un des lieux communs du vocabulaire de l’aménagement du territoire. Si récemment l’affaire ENRON a pu contribuer à en démystifier les promesses, les critiques - même justifiées - qu’a pu susciter ce concept1 ne doivent pas faire oublier la part incontestable d’innovation démocratique qu’il recèle. Le domaine de l’environnement, qui a joué sur ce thème un rôle précurseur, est sans doute celui où l’on mesure le mieux cette ambiguïté. Et c’est ce qui justifie qu’il soit pris ici comme exemple – d’autant que les points communs avec l’aménagement du territoire sont, comme on le constatera, multiples. 3Cet essor tout particulier des nouvelles formes de gouvernance dans le champ de l’environnement s’explique aisément par au moins trois raisons convergentes : 1.1. 1. 2. 1.3. 1.4. 2.1.

La gran transición: La promesa y la atracción del futuro-Mozilla Firefox La transición global ha comenzado: una sociedad planetaria se irá configurando durante las próximas décadas. Pero su desenlace es incierto. Las tendencias actuales determinan la dirección al comenzar el viaje, pero no su destino. Según cómo se resuelvan los conflictos sociales y del medio ambiente, el desarrollo global puede bifurcarse en caminos dramáticamente diferentes. Por el lado obscuro, es muy fácil imaginar un futuro funesto de pueblos, culturas y naturaleza empobrecidos. Es la historia contada en estas páginas. El ensayo es la culminación del trabajo del Grupo de Escenarios Globales, convocado en 1995 por el Stockholm Environment Institute como una estructura diversa e internacional para examinar los requisitos necesarios para lograr una transición hacia la sostenibilidad. Han pasado dos décadas desde que la noción de "desarrollo sostenible" fue incorporada al léxico de la jerga internacional, inspirando innumerables reuniones internacionales e incluso algún grado de acción.

Global Scenario Group The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century.[1] The GSG’s underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated scenario analysis that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the PoleStar Project. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, PoleStar was inspired by the 1987 Brundtland Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, which first put the concept of “sustainable development” on the international agenda.[2] The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. Scenarios[edit] Conventional Worlds[edit] Barbarization[edit] Breakdown: The world descends into conflict and collapse. See also[edit]

Recherches - Repenser les villes dans une société post Carbone Repenser les villes dans une société post Carbone La mission prospective du CGDD – MEEDDM et le Service Économie et Prospective de l'ADEME copilotent le programme « Repenser les villes dans une société post-carbone » depuis 2009. Le site présente les principales composantes du programme et son actualité : des recherches, des séminaires acteurs-chercheurs et un atelier de construction de scénarios de transition vers une ville post-carbone Pages du site Accueil et actualités Atelier - Scénarios de transition Contact Liens externes, réseaux de villes, publications... Publications sur le programme Recherches Séminaires M'abonner au blog : Par email Mon email : Par fil RSS Récupérer le fil Catégories Actualités Application territoriale Mode de vie Publications autres Rapport de recherche Scénarii Les présentations des recherches discutées lors du séminaire du 19 mars 2010 sont disponibles. Présentation recherches Séminaire intermédiaire Recherches 19 mars 2010 La bibliographie réalisée au début du programme :

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