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Black swan theory

Black swan theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Background[edit] Taleb asserts:[8] Based on the author's criteria:

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Energy Catalyzer The device was demonstrated to invited audiences several times in 2011, and commented on by various academics and others, but no independent tests have been made, and no peer-reviewed tests have been published. Steve Featherstone wrote in Popular Science that by the summer of 2012 Rossi's "outlandish claims" for the E-Cat seemed "thoroughly debunked" and that Rossi "looked like a con man clinging to his story to the bitter end."[12] [edit] In March 2012, Professor Ugo Bardi of the University of Florence wrote on his blog that claims made by Rossi regarding the emission or non-emission of gamma radiation, the location of a supposed factory – in Florida, or not in the United States at all – and the fact that some of his supporters are apparently deserting him, indicated that "... the E-Cat has reached the end of the line.

Hofstadter's law Hofstadter's law is a self-referential time-related adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter and named after him. Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.— Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid [1] Hofstadter's Law was a part of Douglas Hofstadter's 1979 book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. BBST Courses | Welcome | Foundations | Bug Advocacy | Test Design | Exploratory Testing | Taking Exams | Policies | Extras | Instructors Course | Metrics | Engineering Ethics | Please Note: BBST is a Registered Trademark of Kaner, Fiedler & Associates. This site provides Creative Commons-licensed instructional materials (slides and videos) to teach black box software testing. Black box testing is the craft of testing a program from the external view.

Mathematical and Quantitative Papers A mixture of my lectures, & musings when I am bored, ranging from probability theory & quantitative finance to computational epistemology. Collected Published Papers (in One Volume) New Paper on Errors Gallium nitride Its sensitivity to ionizing radiation is low (like other group III nitrides), making it a suitable material for solar cell arrays for satellites. Military and space applications could also benefit as devices have shown stability in radiation environments.[6] Because GaN transistors can operate at much higher temperatures and work at much higher voltages than gallium arsenide (GaAs) transistors, they make ideal power amplifiers at microwave frequencies. Physical properties[edit] Developments[edit]

The significance of Story points Expecting your teams to estimate in Story Points can be quite a leap of faith. When I first introduced the concept of Story Points at my previous company no-one could wrap their heads around the concept. When it comes to estimating, we’re so accustomed to thinking in days or hours that making the leap to some obscure, seemingly illogical measurement is quite the expectation – especially a bunch of engineers. Getting used to it Once you start using Story Points, it usually only takes a couple of sprints before teams start to understand the magic in this new practice.

Gerd Gigerenzer Gerd Gigerenzer (born September 3, 1947, Wallersdorf, Germany) is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making. Gigerenzer is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development[3] and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy,[4] both in Berlin, Germany. How do humans make inferences about their world with limited time and knowledge? Opacity Opacity: What We Do Not See A Philosophical Notebook, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The mathematical version is here. Non philosophorum sed philosophiae historiae NNT’s Home Page Critical Chain Project Management Critical chain project management (CCPM) is a method of planning and managing projects that emphasizes the resources required to execute project tasks. It was developed by Eliyahu M. Goldratt.

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