Note to Web 2.0 Companies: Early Adopters are not the Mass Market If you work in the technology industry it pays to be familiar with the ideas from Geoffrey Moore's insightful book Crossing the Chasm. In the book he takes a look at the classic marketing bell curve that segments customers into Early Adopters, Pragmatists, Conservatives and Laggards then points out that there is a large chasm to cross when it comes to becoming popular beyond an initial set of early adopters. There is a good review of his ideas in Eric Sink's blog post entitled Act Your Age which is excerpted below The people in your market segment are divided into four groups: Early Adopters are risk takers who actually like to try new things. Pragmatists might be willing to use new technology, if it's the only way to get their problem solved. This drawing reflects the fact that there is no smooth or logical transition between the Early Adopters and the Pragmatists. The fact is that early adopters have different problems and needs from regular users.
Sensemaking: Double your userbase with two lines of code and a box of Modafinil First impressions count. Users judge a site just within a fraction of a second. Many hit the back button before reading the first line of text. HCI gives us a good understanding of how users make snap decisions about site design. According to social psychologists, users judge communities along four dimensions: 1) What is the current benefit of this community to me? Because newcomers by definition have no prior experience with the community, their decision to join is based primarily on the expected future benefits of joining. But let's assume you've been reading your Seth Godin so you're already up on the latest marketing techniques. I recently saw Bob Kraut present a paper on the mediating variables for Usenet participation. For oldtimers who received no replies, 84% posted again. What's startling though is the effect getting a reply had on newcomers posting their first time. Apparently, getting a reply increases satisfaction in all four dimensions. And by personal I mean personal.
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