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Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near

Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near
Futurists like Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil have argued that the world is rapidly approaching a tipping point, where the accelerating pace of smarter and smarter machines will soon outrun all human capabilities. They call this tipping point the singularity, because they believe it is impossible to predict how the human future might unfold after this point. Once these machines exist, Kurzweil and Vinge claim, they’ll possess a superhuman intelligence that is so incomprehensible to us that we cannot even rationally guess how our life experiences would be altered. Vinge asks us to ponder the role of humans in a world where machines are as much smarter than us as we are smarter than our pet dogs and cats. Kurzweil, who is a bit more optimistic, envisions a future in which developments in medical nanotechnology will allow us to download a copy of our individual brains into these superhuman machines, leave our bodies behind, and, in a sense, live forever. It’s heady stuff. The AI Approach

CHARTS: Here's What The Wall Street Protesters Are So Angry About... The "Occupy Wall Street" protests are gaining momentum, having spread from a small park in New York to marches to other cities across the country. So far, the protests seem fueled by a collective sense that things in our economy are not fair or right. But the protesters have not done a good job of focusing their complaints—and thus have been skewered as malcontents who don't know what they stand for or want. (An early list of "grievances" included some legitimate beefs, but was otherwise just a vague attack on "corporations." So, what are the protesters so upset about, really? Do they have legitimate gripes? To answer the latter question first, yes, they have very legitimate gripes. And if America cannot figure out a way to address these gripes, the country will likely become increasingly "de-stabilized," as sociologists might say. In other words, in the never-ending tug-of-war between "labor" and "capital," there has rarely—if ever—been a time when "capital" was so clearly winning.

Google Engineer: “Google+ is a Prime Example of Our Complete Failure to Understand Platforms” Last night, high-profile Google engineer Steve Yegge mistakenly posted a long rant about working at Amazon and Google’s own issues with creating platforms on Google+. Apparently, he only wanted to share it internally with everybody at Google, but mistaken shared it publicly. For the most part, Yegge’s post focusses on the horrors of working at Amazon, a company that is notorious for its political infighting. The most interesting part to me, though, is Yegge’s blunt assessment of what he perceives to be Google’s inability to understand platforms and how this could endanger the company in the long run. The post itself has now been deleted, but given Google+’s reshare function, multiple copies exist on Google’s own social network and elsewhere on the web. Google+ Is a Knee-Jerk Reaction Here is the meat of his argument: “Google+ is a knee-jerk reaction, a study in short-term thinking, predicated on the incorrect notion that Facebook is successful because they built a great product. Ha, ha!

The Friday Podcast: Why Do We Tip? : Planet Money Paul Sancya/AP In the 16th century, coffee shops prominently displayed coin boxes with the phrase "to ensure prompt service" written on the side. If you wanted your coffee in a hurry, you dropped a little something extra in the box, and made sure the waitress saw you do it. This, according to at least one version of history, is where tipping began. But today, we tip after we get served, not before. And, according to one expert we talk to on today's podcast, the quality of service we perceive makes a tiny difference in how much we tip. According to one theory, when you get down to it, we don't even tip for good service. We Need a New System In the Spring of 2000, my friend and former colleague Zack Exley arrived in Washington, DC, to observe the protests that had engulfed the city during the World Bank's annual meeting. Driving into Washington from the airport, out the window of his taxi he saw "a teenage white girl with long dreadlocks who wore a homemade t-shirt proclaiming: WE NEED A NEW SYSTEM." Later that evening he attended a party at the home of then-Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers along with "ambassadors, politicians, esteemed professors and what seemed like the entire combined senior economist staff of the IMF, World Bank and Treasury." It turned out Larry Summers had seen the girl too and was eagerly telling his guests about an interaction he had with her: And so I asked the girl: 'What is this new system that you want? "Mr. Summers chuckled and the conversation moved on. In 2000, Larry Summers tried to outsource fixing a global economic system he bore responsibility for to a girl in dreadlocks.

plucky tree: the last time I saw Steve Jobs I worked at Apple from April of 1999 through July of 2011. I’ve never written publicly about that experience, but I wanted to share a little moment that will always be with me, even though it’s not of any great significance. After leaving my job at Apple, I dropped in for lunch one day. I was exiting the main building, Infinite Loop One, and just ahead of me was Steve Jobs, walking with the usual spring in his step that never seemed to go away even as he started looking more frail. Bumping into Steve was a surprisingly common occurrence for such a large company as Apple. Steve was heading towards a car parked next to the curb with its door open, waiting for him. Steve paused for a moment as an iPhone was extended to him, realizing that they didn’t seem to know who he was. Steve took a great deal of care composing the photo, backing up a few steps several times, tapping the iPhone screen to lock focus, then said “Smile!” And that was the last time I saw Steve Jobs.

Generally Assembled at #OccupyWallStreet—By Nathan Schneider The nightly meetings of the General Assembly at occupied Liberty Plaza (officially, Zuccotti Park) in New York have been treated by the media mainly as a quaint footnote to the mass arrests and alleged police brutality attendant to the occupation. In fact, though, the open, non-hierarchical assembly has been at the center of the movement. Starting with the planning meetings that took place in parks around the city prior to September 17, it was instrumental to bringing the #OCCUPYWALLSTREET Internet meme created in July by Adbusters magazine into real life. And as the occupation movement has caught on and spread from city to city, open assemblies have been spreading alongside. Participating in the assembly process can take some getting used to. Each night at Liberty Plaza since the occupation began, a few hundred people have clustered in loose, semicircular rows to attend the GA.

Clever Small Home Architecture Derived From Site Restrictions in Tokyo The River Side House is an impressive project designed by Mizuishi Architect Atelier and located in Tokyo, Japan. The small home was constructed on a triangle site and occupies a building area of 29.07 square meters. According to the architects, the structure of the residence includes functionally separate areas, as follows. Viewpoint: Is the alcohol message all wrong? 12 October 2011Last updated at 00:54 Concerns are high over binge drinking Many people think heavy drinking causes promiscuity, violence and anti-social behaviour. That's not necessarily true, argues Kate Fox. I am a social anthropologist, but what I do is not the traditional intrepid sort of anthropology where you go and study strange tribes in places with mud huts and monsoons and malaria. I really don't see why anthropologists feel they have to travel to unpronounceable corners of the world in order to study strange tribal cultures with bizarre beliefs and mysterious customs, when in fact the weirdest and most puzzling tribe of all is right here on our doorstep. And if you want examples of bizarre beliefs and weird customs, you need look no further than our attitude to drinking and our drinking habits. Clearly, we Brits do have a bit of a problem with alcohol, but why? But we are wrong. There is enormous cross-cultural variation in the way people behave when they drink alcohol. End Quote

Not All 4G Are Created Equal: HSPA+ VS LTE | Apartment Therapy Unplggd Mobile Carriers have been touting the coming of 4G as the next standard of mobile internet. Now all the carrier are claiming they have the fastest network, and adding on to seemingly random letters, like HSPA+ or LTE, to market their network. Still don't know what network is the fastest? What carriers claim as "4G" can really be separated into three different categories or three different wireless technology: HSPA+: This is one of the earliest "4G" technology and it's adopted by US carriers such as, T-mobile and AT&T. WiMax: A standard offered by Sprint in partnership with Clearwire here in the US, this is really the first 4G network deployed. LTE: This is the big three letter words in mobile technology. Now that you know all 4G are not created equal, you'll be able to make a more informed decision when choosing your wireless carrier.

8 Things I Want in My Ice Cream Sandwich With Google teasing us about the next major release, codenamed Ice Cream Sandwich, of its popular mobile operating system fan sites and online forums are already brimming with speculation about what new features the latest incarnation of Android could contain. We already know from Google’s announcement at I/O 2011 back in May that ICS is going to combine Gingerbread and Honeycomb into one operating system, avoiding the need for two separate versions of Android, and that this version of Android is “the most ambitious yet” when compared to previous incarnations such as Gingerbread and Froyo. Leaked screenshots posted on the Internet a few days ago show that ICS has heavily borrowed from Honeycomb (for example the slidable application changer) and the ring unlock screen. They also confirm what everyone has been speculating: that this version of Android will be known as Android 4.0. Two leaked screenshots of Android 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich), courtesy of Romanian website Mobilissimo 1. 2. 3.

The True Cost of Commuting It was a beautiful evening in my neighborhood, and I was enjoying one of my giant homebrews on a deck chair I had placed in the middle of the street, as part of a nearby block’s Annual Street Party. I was talking to a couple I had just met, and the topic turned to the beauty of the neighborhood. “Wow, I didn’t even realize this area was here”, the guy said, “It’s beautiful and old and the trees are giant and all of the families hang out together outside as if it were still 1950!”. “Yeah”, said his wife, “We should really move here!”. Then the discussion turned to the comparatively affordable housing, and the other benefits of living in my particular town. Except their plan was absurd. Because these two full-time professional workers currently happen to live and work in “Broomfield”, a city that is about 19 miles and 40 minutes of high-traffic driving away from here. Yes, actually it IS too bad! Let’s take a typical day’s drive for this self-destructive couple. That’s EVERY ten years.

Domestic Outsourcing: Practical or Wussypants? A while ago, I had the pleasure of doing a guest posting on the Frugal Dad website. I noticed that the article that ran just before mine was about Outsourcing – Frugal Dad nicely illustrated his own battle between convenience and cash with a task he finds particularly unpleasant because of allergies – lawn mowing. In the ensuing comments section, there was some interesting discussion on both sides, including some that expressed the attitude “Oh, I love outsourcing everything! My life is so clean and simple now, and it’s the best $500 a month I could ever spend!”. Even more recently there was some similar chitchat on our friend Mortgage Free By 30‘s site. I threw a comment of my own into each of those streams at the time, but the topic seems to come up in real life so often, especially among financially struggling high-income people, that it is time to proclaim this blog’s Official Position on Outsourcing! Mr. Let’s begin with a historical tale. But then our paths diverged. Where to next?

Arguing about property There are many different philosophical ways to arrive at an economically leftist political position. One of those philosophical approaches — which I think has been somewhat neglected — is centered on the issue of property ownership. Unfortunately, many — even on the left — will concede that property rights exist, and that the institution of property makes sense. I think this is the wrong move: the issue of property should be attacked head on for the incoherent mess that it is. These talking points have all sorts of responses, but the quickest one is just to attack ownership outright. So the question then becomes: how can that possibly happen? But the easiest way to understand how original appropriation cannot be justified within a conservative/libertarian framework is by focusing on the idea of opportunity loss. To be concrete about this, consider an example. Unless unanimous consent exists, the original grabbing up of property results in violent, non-consensual theft from others.

"A Thousand Lives": What really happened in Jonestown? - What to Read Were the deaths, in 1978, of more than 900 Americans in Jonestown, Guyana, a mass suicide or a massacre? And were the members of the Peoples Temple, who founded the settlement, the hypnotized victims of a cult dominated by a purely evil man? In the decades since the tragedy, as it recedes from popular awareness, scholars (and not a few cranks) have argued over the answers to these questions, obvious as they may seem to anyone who knows of the event primarily through the mass media. The latest entry in the discussion is “A Thousand Lives: The Untold Story of Hope, Deception and Survival at Jonestown” by Julia Scheeres, which looks at Jonestown from the perspective of the church’s rank-and-file members. Strictly speaking, this story is not “untold”; of the 100 or so survivors of Jonestown, a few have written their stories, and a compilation of oral and written firsthand accounts has been published.

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