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Elementary Worldly Wisdom

Elementary Worldly Wisdom
A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business Charles Munger, USC Business School, 1994 I'm going to play a minor trick on you today because the subject of my talk is the art of stock picking as a subdivision of the art of worldly wisdom. That enables me to start talking about worldly wisdom—a much broader topic that interests me because I think all too little of it is delivered by modern educational systems, at least in an effective way. And therefore, the talk is sort of along the lines that some behaviorist psychologists call Grandma's rule after the wisdom of Grandma when she said that you have to eat the carrots before you get the dessert. The carrot part of this talk is about the general subject of worldly wisdom which is a pretty good way to start. So, emphasizing what I sometimes waggishly call remedial worldly wisdom, I'm going to start by waltzing you through a few basic notions. What is elementary, worldly wisdom? What are the models?

Insight If we eliminate system one, system two isn't going to get the job done because you can't live by system two. There are people who try, there are people who have had various kinds of brain lesions that create disconnects between their emotions and their decision-making process. Damasio has written about them. It can take them 30 minutes to figure out what restaurant they want to go to. Their performance on intelligence tests isn't impaired, but their performance in living their lives is greatly impaired; they can't function well, and their lives go downhill. So we know that trying to do everything purely rationally, just following Bayesian statistics or anything like that isn't going to work. Too often it's treated as a real dichotomy, and too many organizations that I study try to encourage people to just follow procedures, just follow the steps, and to be afraid to make any mistakes. Rather than perform standard research and manipulate variables, we said, "Let's talk to the experts."

Zo zet je effectief en efficiënt crowdsourcing in Daarom hebben wij hier onderzoek naar gedaan. In de afgelopen weken zijn we dieper ingegaan op hoe de kosten het best ingedekt kunnen worden, en hebben we cases besproken die succesvolle hebben gecrowdsourced. Vandaag het vijfde en laatste artikel, over slimme crowdsourcingstrategieën. Wat kan crowdsourcing opleveren? Ondanks de groeiende kennis over wat crowdsourcing kan opleveren, is er weinig kennis over hoe crowdsourcing het meest kan opleveren. Dit is een groot gemis. het inwinnen van latente klantenbehoeften;het inwinnen van directe klantenbehoefte; de doelgroep een brand experience geven;het intiem contact hebben met de doelgroep. Maar in dit onderzoek zijn we niet alleen geïnteresseerd in de directe gevolgen, maar ook de indirecte gevolgen van crowdsourcing. Drie effectieve crowdsourcingstrategieën Tijdens het onderzoek zijn er drie marketingstrategieën naar voren gekomen die erg toepasbaar zijn om effectief en efficiënt te crowdsourcen. Figuur 1. Tabel 3. Samengevat

Startup Insights From Paul English, Co-Founder of Kayak Startup Insights From Paul English, Co-Founder of Kayak I’m just wrapping up several weeks of attending conferences across both coasts. Of the ones I have been to recently, the Nantucket Conference has been my favorite. A great group of people and a small enough gathering that you can actually get to know many/most of them. One of the sessions at the conference was an interview with Paul English, founder and CTO of Kayak. The following are some notes I pulled from the interview. Or, you can download the MP3 directly 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. Full Transcript of Paul English Interview [applause 0:00:00] Larry Bohn: [0:05] So let me begin this way. Paul English: [0:14] That sounds right. 1989. Larry:[0:16] 1989. Paul:[1:16] It's all due to Larry; everything I learned working for Larry. Larry: [2:46] Great. Paul:[2:51] Interleaf, that's right. Paul:[5:27] Sometimes I give talks at local universities about starting companies. Paul:[10:57] Sure.

Drugs and the Meaning of Life (Photo by JB Banks) (Note 6/4/2014: I have revised this 2011 essay and added an audio version.—SH) Everything we do is for the purpose of altering consciousness. We form friendships so that we can feel certain emotions, like love, and avoid others, like loneliness. We eat specific foods to enjoy their fleeting presence on our tongues. Drugs are another means toward this end. One of the great responsibilities we have as a society is to educate ourselves, along with the next generation, about which substances are worth ingesting and for what purpose and which are not. However, we should not be too quick to feel nostalgia for the counterculture of the 1960s. Drug abuse and addiction are real problems, of course, the remedy for which is education and medical treatment, not incarceration. I discuss issues of drug policy in some detail in my first book, The End of Faith, and my thinking on the subject has not changed. I have two daughters who will one day take drugs. (Pokhara, Nepal) Ott, J.

An overview of the recognition primed decision making model What is it? In 1985 Gary Klein and others began to develop the recognition primed decision making model. They were studying decision making in the army and were examining how fire fighting chiefs make decisions. They realized that these expert decision-makers were not comparing lists of options. They were not even comparing two options. So they ended up revising the whole research project and came up with a model of how people actually make decisions. This description they called the recognition primed decision making model. How it works In a given situation, the decision maker will pick up cues and indicators that let them recognise patterns. Klein and Co. wondered how people could assess this single option if they were not comparing it to something else. The mental simulation was based on mental models that the decision maker had developed through experience. Moving forward If the decision maker considers the action script will achieve the outcome, they go ahead. Expertise and patterns

Publications Publisher Debate: How Private Exchanges Increase Inventory Control And Solve Channel Conflict 11/22 The debate among premium publishers and DSPs begs one simple question: “Will putting my inventory on an exchange cannibalize my direct sales efforts?” Those who “own” inventory are concerned that through exchanges, advertisers and trading desks have access to the same premium placements at lower CPMs, thereby diluting direct sales opportunities. As a premium publisher, you probably invest in a sales team to monetize your inventory. You sell a unique readership, social engagement capabilities, contextual relevance, and other site-specific aspects that help value premium inventory at premium prices. On the other side of the coin is the brand advertiser. Buying direct from premium publishers ensures contextual relevancy and protects against brand conflict. Herein resides the real business challenge for publishers: “Will putting premium inventory on an exchange cannibalize the higher CPMs I can get through direct sales efforts?” The industry needs to embrace true private exchanges.

Bordeaux bargains could be worth the wait Just two weeks ago we noted that Bordeaux is not the best place to find values. And so the annual springtime rite of wine critics, importers and brokers flocking to Bordeaux to taste and pronounce judgment on the latest vintage is typically, at best, a passing curiosity. Equally foreign to most value wine shoppers is the idea of buying Bordeaux “futures,” also known by the French “en primeur.” Just as the term suggests, buying futures means buying the wine before it’s even bottled, up to two years before it will arrive in stores, on the speculation that it will be cheaper now than when it’s released. The futures price is set by the individual chateaux, based on their own – and more importantly the critics’ – assessment of the quality of the vintage, plus factors such as the price and success of the prior vintage, current economic conditions, perceived demand and other variables. What, you ask, does all this talk of $5,000 cases and $400 bottles have to do with budget wine? Cheers!

The China Study: Fact or Fallacy? « Raw Food SOS Disclaimer: This blog post covers only a fraction of what’s wrong with “The China Study.” In the years since I wrote it, I’ve added a number of additional articles expanding on this critique and covering a great deal of new material. Please read my Forks Over Knives review for more information on what’s wrong with the conclusions drawn from Campbell’s casein/aflatoxin research, and if you’d rather look at peer-reviewed research than the words of some random internet blogger, see my collection of scientific papers based on the China Study data that contradict the claims in Campbell’s book. I’ve also responded to Campbell’s reply to my critique with a much longer, more formal analysis than the one on this page, which you can read here. When I first started analyzing the original China Study data, I had no intention of writing up an actual critique of Campbell’s much-lauded book. I’m a data junkie. First, let me put out some fires before they have a chance to ignite: Alright, Mr.

List of thought processes Nature of thought[edit] Thought (or thinking) can be described as all of the following: An activity taking place in a: brain – organ that serves as the center of the nervous system in all vertebrate and most invertebrate animals (only a few invertebrates such as sponges, jellyfish, adult sea squirts and starfish do not have a brain). It is the physical structure associated with the mind. mind – abstract entity with the cognitive faculties of consciousness, perception, thinking, judgement, and memory. Having a mind is a characteristic of humans, but which also may apply to other life forms.[1][2] Activities taking place in a mind are called mental processes or cognitive functions.computer (see automated reasoning, below) – general purpose device that can be programmed to carry out a set of arithmetic or logical operations automatically. Types of thoughts[edit] Content of thoughts[edit] Types of thought (thinking)[edit] Listed below are types of thought, also known as thinking processes. Lists

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