The Ladder of Inference - Problem-Solving Training from MindTools Avoiding "Jumping to Conclusions" Don't just "dive in" and make a decision right away. © iStockphoto/abbesses Have you ever been accused of "putting 2 and 2 together and making 5", meaning that the other person thinks you have jumped to the wrong conclusion? In today's fast-moving world, we are always under pressure to act now, rather than spend time reasoning things through and thinking about the true facts.
Was human evolution inevitable or a matter of luck? – Dan Falk In the movie Sliding Doors (1998), a woman named Helen, played by Gwyneth Paltrow, rushes to catch a train on the London Underground, but just misses it, watching helplessly from the platform as the doors slide shut. The film explores two alternative universes, comparing the missed-train universe to a parallel reality in which she caught the train just in time. It wasn’t a cinematic masterpiece – the critics aggregated at Rotten Tomatoes give it only a 63 per cent ‘fresh’ rating – but it vividly confronts a question that many of us have asked at one time or another: if events had unfolded slightly differently, what would the world be like?
Anti Design Festival We are living in an age where millions of colours became 256. Difference is the enemy. Generic culture hypnotises us all into generic patterns, where control is visibly invisible. to be published in: R. Trappl (ed.) (1996): Cybernetics and Systems '96 (World Science, Singapore?)Francis Heylighen & Johan Bollen Center "Leo Apostel", Free University of Brussels, What Does It Mean? What does it mean? Or really what does it mean to me? I have been asking myself that question a lot lately. What I have found is that I have attached a meaning to everything- of course we all have, but those meanings become so ingrained that it stops me from actually having any new ideas, interpretations, or experiences that could lead me in a new direction. I am so quick to judge and decide based on my past definitions that my future is almost certainly predictable.
Are Artificial Intelligence Doomsayers like Skeptical Theists? - h+ Media Some of you may have noticed my recently-published paper on existential risk and artificial intelligence. The paper offers a somewhat critical perspective on the recent trend for AI-doomsaying among people like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking and Bill Gates. Of course, it doesn’t focus on their opinions; rather, it focuses on the work of the philosopher Nick Bostrom, who has written the most impressive analysis to date of the potential risks posed by superintelligent machines.
Conditional Design - Conditional Design Conditional Design A manifesto for artists and designers. Through the influence of the media and technology on our world, our lives are increasingly characterized by speed and constant change. The Global Brain, the Semantic Web, the Singularity and 360-2020 consciousness to create the Web of WE: socially-voiced co-creation - un knol de 刘Twain Video Introduction F irstly, thank you for your interest and I hope readers will contribute their own considered analysis and gut intuitions here intelligently, regardless of whether or not they agree with these postulations and the presentation of them. Secondly, I’m looking forward to our interactions and building upon this model together. Thirdly, I have the flu whilst I write this so my own brain may not be optimally functioning!
Climbing the Ladder of Inference It happened again this week. I was going along merrily about my business when I read something very disturbing on someone’s Facebook page. It was one side of a multi-faceted, distasteful, eye-opening situation affecting a significant number of people personally and about which most of the rest of us had an opinion. I took an opinion too, way too early in the game. And, I found myself at the top of the Ladder of Inference feeling embarrassed by my rush to judgment and having to climb my way down again by taking back words I had written in haste and with insufficient thought. I don’t suppose it will be the last time I’m going to rush up the ladder. What is Open Foresight We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking. It’s a work in progress and constantly evolving, but here are some of the basic principles we’ve developed so far.1) What is Open Foresight? In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together.
The Ladder of Inference Have you ever found yourself perplexed at the way someone else has interpreted something you said or did, and put a meaning on it that you never intended? Or perhaps you have found yourself enraged by someone’s comment or action, and concluded that they must be acting against you for some reason? You have been climbing the ‘Ladder of Inference’. First proposed by Chris Argyris, way back in 1970, the ladder of inference is a way of describing how you move from a piece of data (a comment made to you, or something that you have observed to happen), through a series of mental processes to a conclusion.
Trends of the 2010s decade - Framework by futurist Ross Dawson Click on the image to see full-size pdfEXATRENDS OF THE DECADE:2010s AUGMENTED HUMANS More than ever before, we can transcend our human abilities. Traditional memory aids are supplemented by augmented reality glasses or contact lenses, thought interfaces allow us to control machines, exoskeletons give us superhuman power. Machines will not take over humanity… because they will be us. ONE HALF A MANIFESTO And so I'll here share my thoughts with the respondents of edge.org, many of whom are, as much as anyone, responsible for this revolution, one which champions the assent of cybernetic technology as culture. The dogma I object to is composed of a set of interlocking beliefs and doesn't have a generally accepted overarching name as yet, though I sometimes call it "cybernetic totalism". It has the potential to transform human experience more powerfully than any prior ideology, religion, or political system ever has, partly because it can be so pleasing to the mind, at least initially, but mostly because it gets a free ride on the overwhelmingly powerful technologies that happen to be created by people who are, to a large degree, true believers. Edge readers might be surprised by my use of the word "cybernetic". I find the word problematic, so I'd like to explain why I chose it.
Six Global Theories of Mythology: Part Six – Myths express the Unconscious Human Mind The Human Mind The Sixth Global Theory – Myths reflect Man’s Unconscious Mind After the intensity of the progression of mythological theories in their investigation into the psychology, values, phenomenology, history and rituals of any particular civilisation or society, the Psychoanalytical Theory of myths was inevitable. Freud’s ‘Interpretation of Dreams’ investigated the link between the language of dreams and mythological symbols based on the tribal belief that dreams and myths arise from the same reality. Freud (1856 – 1939) believed in a transhistorical and biological conception of mankind and furthermore that myth expressed repressed desires.