When will computer hardware match the human brain? by Hans Moravec
Journal of Evolution and Technology. 1998. Vol. 1 When will computer hardware match the human brain? (Received Dec. 1997) Hans Moravec ABSTRACT This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. Brains, Eyes and Machines Computers have far to go to match human strengths, and our estimates will depend on analogy and extrapolation. There are considerations other than sheer scale. More computer power is needed to reach human performance, but how much? The retina is a transparent, paper-thin layer of nerve tissue at the back of the eyeball on which the eye's lens projects an image of the world. It takes robot vision programs about 100 computer instructions to derive single edge or motion detections from comparable video images. 100 million instructions are needed to do a million detections, and 1,000 MIPS to repeat them ten times per second to match the retina. MIPS and Megabytes. to mimic their behavior.
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