George E. Vaillant's: Aging Well: Surprising Guideposts to a Happier Life from the Landmark Harvard Study of Adult Development George E. Vaillant's "We all need models for how to live from retirement to past 80--with joy," writes George Vaillant, M.D., director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development. "Here you have these wonderful files, and you seem little interested in how we cope with increasing age ... our adaptability, our zest for life," one of these subjects wrote to Vaillant, a researcher, psychiatrist, and Harvard Medical School professor, about how he was using this information. We also learn what makes old age vital and interesting. Vaillant is empathetic and sometimes surprisingly poetic: "Owning an old brain, you see, is rather like owning an old car.... Other reviews This groundbreaking sociological analysis is based on three research projects that followed over 800 people from their adolescence through old age. An unavoidable task of the living is to change with time.
Decision 411 Course Outline 2005 Robert Nau Fuqua School of Business Duke University Tweet This web site contains notes and materials for an advanced elective course on statistical forecasting that is taught at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. 1. Principles and risks of forecasting (pdf)Famous forecasting quotes How to move data around Get to know your data Inflation adjustment (deflation) Seasonal adjustment Stationarity and differencing The logarithm transformation 2. Statistics review and the simplest forecasting model: the sample mean (pdf)Notes on the random walk model (pdf)Mean (constant) model Linear trend model Random walk model Geometric random walk model Three types of forecasts: estimation period, validation period, and the future 3. 4. Notes on linear regression analysis (pdf)Introduction to linear regression analysis Mathematics of simple regressionRegression examples - Baseball batting averages - Beer sales vs. price, part 1: descriptive analysis - Beer sales vs. price, part 2: fitting a simple model
The Path to Critical Thinking Few of us are effective critical thinkers—who has time? The good news, says Stever Robbins, is that this skill can be learned. by Stever Robbins Can you write a refresher on critical thinking? We business leaders so like to believe that we can think well, but we don't. What's logic got to do with it? Purely emotional decision making is bad news. Critical thinking starts with logic. We also sloppily reverse cause and effect. There are many excellent books on logic. The trap of assuming You can think critically without knowing where the facts stop and your own neurotic assumptions begin. When we don't know something, we assume. Finding and busting "conventional wisdom" can be the key to an empire. Assumptions can also cripple us. Some assumptions run so deep they're hard to question. Next time you're grappling with a problem, spend time brainstorming your assumptions. The truth will set you free (statistics notwithstanding) Have you ever noticed how terrified we are of the truth? Help!
Critical Thinking Course Description: Critical Thinking is an introductory course in the principles of good reasoning. It covers pretty much the same subject as what is usually taught in practical logic, informal reasoning or the study of argumentation. This means that the main focus of the course lies in arguments, their nature, their use and their import. In this regard, a course in Critical Thinking comes very close to the study of classical Logic as it pertains to our natural language. However, there are two major differences. The above features make Critical Thinking at once less formal and more dynamic than Logic. The present course is designed to serve as a methodical preparation for more effective reasoning and improved cognitive skills. The course includes the following areas of study: Introductory: Concepts, Propositions. Course Texts: The course is based on these textbooks and their incorporated or accompanying materials. Format: Objectives: Requirements: Exams: Grading:
Critical Thinking Class: Grading Policies The Goal of the Portfolio is to Amass Evidence of Critical Thinking Ability "Evidence" is something that makes something else "evident". The key question is "What specifically does your writing make evident?" When you write sentences that can be interpreted in many different ways, you make evident that you are thinking in a vague way. When you do not give concrete examples and illustrations to make your point clear, you make evident that you do not know how to clarify your thought. When you do not make clear-with appropriate transitional words and critical vocabulary-the logical relations between the sentences you write, you make evident that you are not thinking in terms of the logic of your thought, that you do not fully understand the structure of your own reasoning. When you do not analyze key concepts and demonstrate how to lay bare the logic of them, you make evident that you are weak at conceptual analysis. What Each Grade Represents Back to top
The de Bono Group - Six Thinking Hats Used with well-defined and explicit Return On Investment success in corporations worldwide, Six Thinking Hats is a simple, effective parallel thinking process that helps people be more productive, focused, and mindfully involved. A powerful tool set, which once learned can be applied immediately! You and your team members can learn how to separate thinking into six clear functions and roles. Each thinking role is identified with a colored symbolic "thinking hat." Using Six Thinking Hats®, you and your team will learn how to use a disciplined process which will... Significant Applications for the Parallel Thinking Process of Six Thinking Hats Leadership DevelopmentTeam Productivity, Alignment and CommunicationCreative and innovative thinkingMeeting leadership and decision makingProduct and Process Improvement, and Project Management Critical, Analytical Thinking and Problem-SolvingOrganizational Change/PerformanceWherever High Performance Thinking and Action is needed Introducing
Generalised problems kill startups It’s crazy how often I hear founders say ‘I think the problem we’re really solving is X’. Hang on a second… You ‘think’? The surprising thing is that if you forgot temporarily why you started your business, you’re not alone. Why it’s easy to forget the problem you’re solving As early-stage founders, it’s beaten into us that we need to deliver our elevator pitch as quickly as possible. We take all those problems and frustrations that motivated us to dedicate our lives to solving them and find a general theme. Generalised problems are toxic As you repeat a general problem over and again, most people will nod. But compressing a set of specific problems into a summary is like shrinking a photo into a thumbnail. On the way to product-market fit, more specific problems within your general theme appear, and it’s easy to get confused about about which problems need solving and which do not. You can’t measure a problem statement by how it sounds, only by how it feels. — Tweet this Don’t generalise.