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Chroniques du début de la fin du pétrole, par Matthieu Auzanneau

Chroniques du début de la fin du pétrole, par Matthieu Auzanneau

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Beijing Syndrome As the term “China syndrome” has already been taken, I am terming what is happening in the country these days the “Beijing syndrome,” for China’s capital seems to be shaping up as the epicenter of a great upheaval to come. A “syndrome” is a group of symptoms that, when taken together, point to a more serious underlying disease; which, of course, is what we see emerging in the contention between China’s rapid growth and its environment. Thirty-five years ago, after China got over its bout of “cultural revolutions” and “great leaps forward” to become serious about economic growth, numerous reforms were undertaken. China’s leaders obviously got something right, for their economy grew in the vicinity of 10 percent or better for most of the intervening years and became the envy of the world – at least until recently. We all know that economic growth requires the consumption of energy at roughly the same pace as GDP increases, and indeed this is what has happened in China.

40 years “LIMITS TO GROWTH” Limits to Growth is a study about the future of our planet. On behalf of the Club of Rome, Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and their team worked on systems analysis at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT. They created a computing model which took into account the relations between various global developments and produced computer simulations for alternative scenarios. Part of the modelling were different amounts of possibly available resources, different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control or environmental protection. 12 million copies were distributed in 37 languages. Who Can Name the Bigger Number? [This essay in Spanish][This essay in French] In an old joke, two noblemen vie to name the bigger number. The first, after ruminating for hours, triumphantly announces "Eighty-three!"

Oil Supply and Demand to 2025 Yesterday, we took a look at what 7%ish growth in China's oil demand would do if continued to 2025 - adding about another 15 million barrels/day (mb/d) to global oil demand. Today, let's complete the exercise by looking at the other areas of the world where oil demand is growing rapidly, as well as the trends in supply (all data from BP). We will see that things don't add up

Unité mixte de recherche Ecologie de Biogéochimie des Sols et Agro-systèmes - CoffeeFlux Measuring and modelling water, sediment and carbon Ecosystem Services in an agroforestry coffee watershed (Costa Rica) Aims and "Philosophy" of the CAFNET/Coffee-Flux Project "Coffee-flux” is a platform where collaborative research on coffee agroforestry is promoted: data are being shared between collaborators and positive interactions are enhanced. The philosophy is to concentrate several investigations on one specific site and for several years, to share a useful common experimental database, to develop modelling and to publish results in highly-ranked scientific journals.

Tight Oil Production Will Fade Quickly: The Truth About Rig Counts U.S tight oil production from shale plays will fall more quickly than most assume. Why? High decline rates from shale reservoirs is given. The more interesting reasons are the compounding effects of pad drilling on rig count and poorer average well performance with time. Berkeley - Biometeorology Lab Welcome to the Berkeley Biometeorology Lab Web site. Biometeorology is a field that explores the interactions between life and its surrounding environment. Biometeorology is instrumental in providing information that is of use to biogeoscientists, atmospheric scientists, remote sensing scientists, hydrologists and ecologists who are working on problems associated with: 1) the carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles; 2) the prediction of weather and climate; 3) the chemical state of the atmosphere and 4) the structure, function and dynamics of ecosystems. Most of these problems rely on quantifying and predicting fluxes of trace gases and energy between vegetated canopies and the atmosphere or assess the state conditions of the air, leaves and soil.

The End of the World As We Know It? The rise of the post-carbon era In an exclusive new essay, political scientist Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed presents a dramatic picture of the world we're about to leave behind, and the new possibilities ahead. He argues that the age of Carbon is coming to a close, and only a concerted effort can prevent an impending crisis on a global scale. By Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed Only 500 generations ago, hunter-gatherers began cultivating crops and forming their tiny communities into social hierarchies. Around 15 to 20 generations ago, industrial capitalism erupted on a global scale.

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'? A new study partly-sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution. Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."

The global Transition tipping point has arrived - vive la révolution Last Friday, I posted an exclusive report about a new NASA-backed scientific research project at the US National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (Sesync) to model the risks of civilisational collapse, based on analysis of the key factors involved in the rise and fall of past civilisations. The story went viral and was quickly picked up by other news outlets around the world which, however, often offered rather misleading headlines. 'Nasa-backed study says humanity is pretty much screwed', said Gizmodo. 'Nasa-funded study says modern society doomed, like the dodo', said the Washington Times. Are we doomed?