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Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions

Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions
Related:  data & probabilityPersonality & Decision Making

Baby girl, Poppy, breaks 101-year run of baby boys in Silverton family | NT News Happy parents ... Danielle Andrews and Jeremy Silverton with their daughter Poppy at their farm in Tiverton, Devon in England. Source: Snapper Media A BRITISH family is celebrating more than just the arrival of their baby girl. The birth of Poppy on September 9 also marked the end of a 101-year run of baby boys in the Silverton family. The Silverton family has not had a baby girl since 1913 but the spell was finally broken by Jeremy Silverton, 43, and his partner, Danielle Andrews, 36 from Tiverton in Devon. The last female born into the family was Poppy’s late great aunt Jessie Silverton, who was born 101 years ago, ITV News reported. Jessie’s parents had five children between 1910 and 1917. Her older siblings Amy and Edward, and younger brothers Vick and John, also had five children themselves — all of them boys. You beauty ... Amy had two sons, Ronnie and Vic, Jessie had a boy called Peter, Vick had a son called Roy, and John had a boy called David, who is Jeremy’s dad. Under a spell ...

Quotes The Game of SKUNK Write the following questions on the chalkboard or overhead: I might make more money if I was in business for myself; should I quit my job? An earthquake might destroy my house; should I buy insurance? My mathematics teacher might collect homework today; should I do it? Ask students to share their responses to each of these scenarios. Every day each of us must make choices like those described above. Making the connection between choice and chance is basic to understanding the significance and usefulness of mathematical probability. The game of SKUNK presents middle-grade students with an experience that clearly involves both choice and chance. The Game of SKUNK To start the game each player makes a score sheet like this: Each letter of SKUNK represents a different round of the game; play begins with the "S" column and continue through the "K" column. At the beginning of each round, every player stands. Playing SKUNK with the Whole Class SKUNK Further Examples Sheet Thinking about SKUNK

Webinar: Feedback, Praise, and Criticism: How Teachers Foster or Undermine Student Growth II - Center for Spiritual and Ethical Education Registration: CSEE Member Schools: Free, registration is required to receive login / password information. Non-Members: $130 Please note event time: This webinar will take place at 3:30pm Eastern Time. About the topic: Giving students feedback is part of the teacher’s job, but most teachers are only vaguely aware of what we’ve learned about feedback in the last two decades. Logistics: Twenty-four hours before the webinar is scheduled, a link, login and password will be emailed to you. A note on tech: CSEE webinars are hosted by WebEx Web Conferencing. Want to test your system in advance to make sure everything will work? Depending on your browser and operating system, you may need to download the Meeting Center application in order to join a WebEx meeting.

Stick or Switch? The Situation Pose the following situation to the students: During a certain game show, contestants are shown three closed doors. One of the doors has a big prize behind it, and the other two have junk behind them. The contestants are asked to pick a door, which remains closed to them. In groups, students can discuss what they might do. The Problem As a class, discuss the following strategies. If you were the contestant, which of the following strategies would you choose, and why? An Instructional Approach A good way to attempt to solve probability problems is to proceed from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models. In Monty's dilemma, the simulation step is absolutely crucial to enable our students to understand exactly what occurs within each of the three strategies. Spinner for Monty simulation Alternatively, students may use the Adjustable Spinner applet. Let's walk through a simulation of each strategy. The Stick Strategy The Flip Strategy The Switch Strategy

Brandon Spikes puts Patriots AFC championship ring on eBay A week after the Patriots cut Brandon Spikes, the linebacker put his Patriots 2011 AFC Championship ring on eBay, reports CSNNE.com. And it can be yours for the low, low price of $19,499. Spikes and the Patriots parted ways shortly after his Mercedes Maybach was found damaged and abandoned in the median of a Foxborough highway. Authorities were alerted by the OnStar on-board navigation system that the driver reportedly hit a deer. The Patriots didn't wait around to see what role, if any, Spikes had in all this, and gave him his walking papers weeks after signing him. Spikes began his career in New England, playing there from 2010-2013. "I just want to show [coach Bill Belichick] that I've changed as an individual, as a player, as a man,"Spikes said last month. Now Spikes is looking for work.

What Are My Chances? In this lesson, students will conduct 5 experiments. If you have enough dice, coins, and decks of cards, students can work in groups. Otherwise, set up 5 stations, 1 for each game of chance (before class). Groups will rotate through the room, so that each group gets a chance to visit all 5 stations. Begin class by showing students a coin, and tell them that they will be running experiments today and exploring probabilities. Begin the lesson with a discussion of theoretical probability. Discuss with students what the formula means. , write and on the board. down on the board. Discuss with students that these are theoretical probabilities. Next, ask students what they think the term experimental probability might mean. In theoretical probability, you divide by the number of outcomes (e.g., There are 6 sides on a die so there are 6 possible outcomes). . Distribute the What Are My Chances? What Are My Chances? Would it be fair to give a report card grade based on 1 test? 1. 2. 3.

Justin Bartek: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know Justin Bartek with his longtime girlfriend, Summer Jenkins. (GoFundMe) A 30-year-old Texas father was killed when he launched a firework off his chest on Tuesday while hanging out with friends at a popular fishing hole. Justin Bartek was pronounced dead after he was taken to a local hospital, the Colorado County Sheriff’s Office told KPRC-TV. Here’s what you need to know: 1. Bartek suffered critical injuries after launching the mortar-tube style firework, called a Medieval Knight, off his chest, witnesses told KTRK-TV. 2. Bartek with his son, Braxton. Bartek was a postal worker in the small town of Columbus, Texas, and had been working there for several years, the Colorado County Citizen reported. “You don’t see that smiling face coming at you and just waving and just giving you a nice little pep in your day,” a friend, Erica Jackson, told KTRK. His mother told KTRK that Bartek grew up in Katy, Texas, before moving to Columbus. 3. Bartek with his mother. 4. 5. Devon Staples.

Probably Graphing Begin this activity by asking all students to stand up. Tell them you are going to flip a coin. If they think it is going to be heads, they are to put a hands on their head. If they think the coin is going to be tails, they are to put their hands behind their back. If they are correct, they remain standing, if they are incorrect, they sit down. Repeat the process until there is only one person left. During this introduction, discuss any patterns in the results of the coin toss and the number of students who sit down each time. What chance did you have of being correct on the very first flip of the coin? Inform students that this lesson will continue to investigate the probabilities involved in a coin toss. As you read through activity sheet and before students begin the experiment, draw the coordinate plane on the board. Inform students that when they create their own graphs, they should plots the points representing their data, then connect the points with line segments. X/O Problem .

3 Timeless Rules for Making Tough Decisions Jennifer Maravillas FOR HBR I perused the restaurant menu for several minutes, struggling with indecision, each item tempting me in a different way. Maybe I should order them all . . . Is this a silly decision not deserving deliberation? We spend an inordinate amount of time, and a tremendous amount of energy, making choices between equally attractive options in everyday situations. If these mundane decisions drag on our time and energy, think about the bigger ones we need to make, in organizations, all the time. These questions are followed by an infinite number of other questions. So how can we handle decisions of all kinds more efficiently? The first method is to use habits as a way to reduce routine decision fatigue. That works for predictable and routine decisions. The second method is to use if/then thinking to routinize unpredictable choices. These two techniques — habits and if/then — can help streamline many typical, routine choices we face in our lives. “It’s 3:15pm,” He said.

socrative probability intro quiz Myers-Briggs: Step II and Team; Strong Interest: Risk Taking - Adventure Scale; FIRO-B: Clarifier, Director, Encourager Roles; TKI: Upside to Collaborating In this issue: Teamwork and the MBTI® Step II Results: Who Likes to be on a Team About the Strong Interest Inventory®: What's the Risk Taking/Adventure Scale? The FIRO-B™ and Team Roles: Clarifier, Director, and Encourager Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Mode (TKI): What's Good About Collaborating? Teamwork and the MBTI Step II Results: Who Likes to be on a Team Most people who take the Myers-Briggs start off by taking the Step I, which is the 93-question version of the test. Organizational development experts have used the Step II to help determine who likes being part of a work team and why. Researchers found significant differences on 15 of the 20 facet scales. On the second scale of Sensing-Intuition there were differences on three facet scales. The Thinking-Feeling scale showed great differences in preferences, with a clear trend towards Feeling for liking teamwork and towards Thinking for disliking it. About the Strong Interest Inventory: What's the Risk Taking/Adventure Scale? Google

11 Plus: Key Stage 2 Maths: Handling Data, Probability, Chance, 11 Plus Practice papers, KS2 Practice papers, Probability is all about how likely it is for something to happen. Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event happening. Probability can Probability is all about how likely it is for something to happen. Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event happening. Probability can be described using words, such as, perhaps, maybe, might, fair, unfair, likely, unlikely, equally likely, chance, certain, uncertain, probable, possible, impossible, good chance, poor chance, no chance, equal chance, even chance, evens, fifty-fifty chance, likelihood, low probability, high probability and possibility. Probability can also be defined in mathematical terms, as fractions, decimals and percentages. To begin with lets concentrate on understanding the vocabulary. If we know that something will definitely happen, like "It will get dark tonight" then we are certain. What if the likelihood of something happening is the same as it not happening, like "If I toss a coin it will land heads up" we can say that it is 'equally likely' or has an 'equal or even chance' or it has a 'fifty-fifty chance'. Probability Worksheet from BBC Schools

Community Mourns Lakeville Students Killed In Crash MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — A community is mourning the death of two Lakeville South High School students killed in a crash Friday afternoon. Johnny Price, 18, and Jake Flynn, 17, attended Lakeville South, where Price was a senior and Flynn a junior. They were in a truck with two other students when it rolled on 225th Street West near Dodd Road. Friends and teammates embraced Saturday at the crash site where a memorial had been set up. “They brought so much life to our school,” Tanner Sperling, a junior, said. “Both Jake and Johnny did.” Both of the boys were athletes. “He was an angel long before he went to heaven,” Barnes said. Two other students in the vehicle were also injured. Hughes was listed as in critical condition Saturday evening, while the Dakota County Sheriff Tim Leslie said Kohlbeck was satisfactory. This tragedy occurred exactly two years to the day that Lakeville student Alyssa Ettl was killed in a crash.

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