Black swan theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Background[edit] Taleb asserts:[8] Based on the author's criteria:
Eating Disorders
“Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the fattest one of all?” If you can relate to the above saying, you are not alone. It is estimated that 75 million people worldwide suffer from eating disorders, including anorexia and bulimia. While most are women, about 10 to 15 percent are men. Teenagers and young adults are most likely to have eating disorders, but people of all ages, including young children, can have these conditions. Unfortunately, many suffer in silence, ashamed or embarrassed to seek help, or unaware that help is even out there. The phrase, “Mirror, mirror, on the wall,” comes from a fairy tale, and of course, fairy tales aren’t real. The Consequences Eating disorders can be deadly. Bulimia and other eating disorders can also lead to life-threatening complications. There is good news, though. Recovery Recovery from an eating disorder is difficult and it takes a lot of time and hard work. It will be a long journey, but it will be worth it. Return To Home Page
Mathematical and Quantitative Papers
A mixture of my lectures, & musings when I am bored, ranging from probability theory & quantitative finance to computational epistemology. Collected Published Papers (in One Volume) New Paper on Errors Aims of the lectures: In short, statistics without being an idiot savant. · Pre- asymptotics (all that happens takes place outside the limit), · Inverse Problems (many models can explain the same phenomena), and · Platonicities (the reduction of the fool) are the same illness under different symptoms. Probability theory does not have to be Platonic. You can go from empiricism to formalism --looking for inverse problems and sensitivity to error in the choice of model. Lecture 1 – Platonic convergence & the Central Limit Theorem. Lecture 2 - Preasymptotics & Small Sample Effects of α ≤1 or Saint Petersburgh -Style Infinite First Moment Situations. Lecture 3 - The fundamental problem of the 0th moment and the irrelevance of "naked probability" Lecture 6 - Option Pricing & True Fat tails
Mental Health: Hallucinations to Delusions | Self Help Zone : Self Help Zone
Mental health is tricky since there are many types of diagnosis, together with personality disorders, cognitive disorder, mental diseases and so forth. To understand mental health entirely is nearly impossible, but there are many answers to questions that many have, because all of us directly or indirectly are affected by mental illnesses. Hallucinations Some disorders, diseases, or cognitive impairments may cause a person to hallucinate or become delusional. Obsessive-compulsive behaviors, anorexia, phobias of socializing, hypochondrias and so forth are the most severe symptoms in this disorder. Some researchers consider that anxiety disorder is a straight link to hereditary, while other philosophers will dispute this notion. Since the person is somewhat disconnected with realism, once the person is affected with anxiety, other symptoms often following simply. For many men in the world social phobias are also common, but have also affected children and women.
Dyslexia the Gift. Information and Help for Dyslexia
Social Anxiety Association | A nonprofit organization that promotes understanding and treatment of social anxiety disorder
Why were children removed?, Stealing a generation (asssimilation), Changing rights and freedoms: Aboriginal people, History Year 9, NSW | Online Education Home Schooling Skwirk Australia
The removal of Indigenous children from their parents was not a new idea, it had been happening for years on the stations and reserves. The children of white men had often been taken away from their Indigenous mothers after birth and given to a white family. As a specific policy by the authorities, Indigenous children had been removed from their homes since the Aboriginal Protection Board was set up in the 1880s. Indigenous children were taken away from their parents for many different reasons but the policy's foundation was essentially a racist one. For many years Indigenous children who had European ancestry were removed from their parents so that they could be 'socialised' into being 'white'. By the early part of the 20th century the reserves were overcrowded and were becoming too expensive for the board to maintain. Many families had been moved around so often because of the reserves closing down, that they were living in extreme poverty and were in poor health.
