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Theories about decision errors

Theories about decision errors
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The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight The Misconception: You celebrate diversity and respect others’ points of view. The Truth: You are driven to create and form groups and then believe others are wrong just because they are others. Source: “Lord of the Flies,” 1963, Two Arts Ltd. In 1954, in eastern Oklahoma, two tribes of children nearly killed each other. The neighboring tribes were unaware of each other’s existence. Scientists stood by, watchful, scribbling notes and whispering. These two tribes consisted of 22 boys, ages 11 and 12, whom psychologist Muzafer Sherif brought together at Oklahoma’s Robber’s Cave State Park. He was right, but as those cultures formed and met something sinister presented itself. Sherif and his colleagues pretended to be staff members at the camp so they could record, without interfering, the natural human drive to form tribes. Soon, the two groups began to suspect they weren’t alone. From the study, the boys face each other for the first time Source: “The Breakfast Club,” 1985, Universal

Decision Points Explanations > Decisions > Decision Points Description | Discussion | So what Description Across any single activity or a set of related activities, there may be points at which decisions have to be made. Unless there are clear decision points, people often will continue with the momentum of the current activity. In the design or management of an activity, more or less decision points may be deliberately inserted or omitted. Example A person is given five small bags of popcorn. In retail situations there are clear decision points along the way, such as to stop and look in a window, to enter the shop, to try on clothes and to buy particular things. Business decision-making is more difficult as it often requires a number of people to agree before something is purchased, particularly if it is expensive. Discussion Decisions take time, effort, energy and expense, which together is sometimes called the transaction cost. Psychologically, decisions play to the need for a sense of control. See also

List of cognitive biases Systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm and/or rationality in judgment. They are often studied in psychology, sociology and behavioral economics.[1] Although the reality of most of these biases is confirmed by reproducible research,[2][3] there are often controversies about how to classify these biases or how to explain them.[4] Several theoretical causes are known for some cognitive biases, which provides a classification of biases by their common generative mechanism (such as noisy information-processing[5]). Gerd Gigerenzer has criticized the framing of cognitive biases as errors in judgment, and favors interpreting them as arising from rational deviations from logical thought.[6] Explanations include information-processing rules (i.e., mental shortcuts), called heuristics, that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. Belief, decision-making and behavioral[edit] Anchoring bias[edit]

Post Growth Institute The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science Illustration: Jonathon Rosen "A MAN WITH A CONVICTION is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point." So wrote the celebrated Stanford University psychologist Leon Festinger (PDF), in a passage that might have been referring to climate change denial—the persistent rejection, on the part of so many Americans today, of what we know about global warming and its human causes. Festinger and several of his colleagues had infiltrated the Seekers, a small Chicago-area cult whose members thought they were communicating with aliens—including one, "Sananda," who they believed was the astral incarnation of Jesus Christ. Through her, the aliens had given the precise date of an Earth-rending cataclysm: December 21, 1954. Festinger and his team were with the cult when the prophecy failed. Read also: the truth about Climategate.At first, the group struggled for an explanation.

A list of decision strategies Decision strategies can be considered from two aspects, the big picture and the fine details. The big picture... A strategy is a plan of action or policy which is designed to achieve an overall aim. rational intuitive combinations Rational strategies have to do with identifying options, evaluating and comparing them and eventually deciding on the highest ranking or best option. Intuitive strategies indicate that there may be no rationale or logic behind the choices made. Gary Klein's recognition primed decision model is a combination of the first two. Smaller chunks Let's examine each of the 3 main groups mentioned in finer detail. Decision making is typically considered as the choosing between 2 or more alternatives. How? The big question, of course, is how to choose between many alternatives. David Welch in his book 'Decisions, Decisions' lays out five decision strategies: optimization constrained optimization preselection satisficing and randomization. Pros and cons of each Klein's Model

Abnormaldiversity Ode to Empathy The discussion around empathy seems to be growing exponentially. From the huge splash Brené Brown is making with her work on shame, vulnerability and empathy to Jeremy Rifkin’s vision of our moving towards an Empathic Civilization, empathy is becoming a 21st century buzzword. And rightfully so. With the emergence of a global civilization, we need to move beyond the “us and them” mentality that lends itself to so much conflict, violence, and self-destruction. An absolutely essential ingredient for this is empathy. Changing the Narrative of Human Nature To show just how important this is, let’s take a look at human nature. However, recent research is turning this all-important premise on its head. For instance, if I believe that the world is a place of abundance and opportunities that help me constantly learn and become more empowered, I will live a very different life than if I believed that the world is a scary, dangerous place and I’m helpless to change it.

Beautycheck - social perception Do attractive people have any advantages? Are they treated better than less attractive? Is it important to look good on an application photo? According to our investigations the answer to these questions is yes. We could show that people are perceived more positively the more attractive they are. A selection of the faces that have been presented: Attractive female faces: Unattractive female faces: Attractive male faces: Unattractive male faces: All faces do not exist in reality. The results are alarmingly clear. home

Decision Making Models overview Decisions! Decisions! The many decision making models that exist nowadays means that you even have to make a decision as to which one to use! There are rational models, intuitive models, rational-iterative models as well as 5, 6, 7 and even 9 step decision models. Most, however, move through each of the basic stages in decision making. On this page we will quickly scan over the main points of some of these decision models so that you have a sense of what's available. Some of these decision making models presuppose that decision making is the same as problem solving. I also understand that for some people decision making can be a problem! A brief explanation of decision making Rational decision making models Decision matrix analysis, Pugh matrix, SWOT analysis, Pareto analysis and decision trees are examples of rational models and you can read more about the most popular here. This type of model is based around a cognitive judgement of the pros and cons of various options. - General George S.

Perception Since the rise of experimental psychology in the 19th Century, psychology's understanding of perception has progressed by combining a variety of techniques.[3] Psychophysics quantitatively describes the relationships between the physical qualities of the sensory input and perception.[5] Sensory neuroscience studies the brain mechanisms underlying perception. Perceptual systems can also be studied computationally, in terms of the information they process. Perceptual issues in philosophy include the extent to which sensory qualities such as sound, smell or color exist in objective reality rather than in the mind of the perceiver.[3] The perceptual systems of the brain enable individuals to see the world around them as stable, even though the sensory information is typically incomplete and rapidly varying. Process and terminology[edit] An example would be a person looking at a shoe. Psychologist Jerome Bruner has developed a model of perception. Perception and reality[edit] Features[edit]

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