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Prospect theory

Prospect theory
The paper "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"[1] has been called a "seminal paper in behavioral economics".[2] Model[edit] The formula that Kahneman and Tversky assume for the evaluation phase is (in its simplest form) given by where is the overall or expected utility of the outcomes to the individual making the decision, are the potential outcomes and their respective probabilities. is a function that assigns a value to an outcome. is a probability weighting function and captures the idea that people tend to overreact to small probability events, but under react to large probabilities. Example[edit] To see how Prospect Theory can be applied, consider the decision to buy insurance. 1. 2. These expressions can be computed numerically. in losses, and hence the insurance looks unattractive. In this example, a strong overweighting of small probabilities undo the effect of the convexity of in losses: the potential outcome of losing $1,000 is overweighted. Applications[edit] Related:  Collaboration is to Reduce Asymmetrical Informationphilippez77rynysel

Rational ignorance Rational ignorance occurs when the cost of educating oneself on an issue exceeds the potential benefit that the knowledge would provide. Ignorance about an issue is said to be "rational" when the cost of educating oneself about the issue sufficiently to make an informed decision can outweigh any potential benefit one could reasonably expect to gain from that decision, and so it would be irrational to waste time doing so. This has consequences for the quality of decisions made by large numbers of people, such as general elections, where the probability of any one vote changing the outcome is very small. The term is most often found in economics, particularly public choice theory, but also used in other disciplines which study rationality and choice, including philosophy (epistemology) and game theory. The term was coined by Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1957; p. 244–46, 266–71). Example[edit] Applications[edit] In marketing[edit] In politics[edit]

Waking Up At 4:30 For 21 Days On April 2, I put myself to a new challenge. It was one of the biggest life hacks I’ve ever done. The challenge was simple: waking up 21 consecutive workdays at 4:30 a.m., a challenge I gave the name of #21earlydays. I chose to only do the challenge on workdays because I knew that weekends and holidays are radically different for me. And why 21 days? But what was the final goal in all this? So, what have I learned from this? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Newsletters | Mining News | Gold News | Gold Mining News | Mining Newsletters Newsletters & Periodicals Below is a list of newsletters where one can find information on the different mining stocks, metals and minerals. Please keep in mind that does not endorse any of these writers or their publications. As always, do your own due diligence and remember that there is a degree of risk with any investment. Please read our disclaimer. Aden ForecastAhead Of The Herd Daily ReckoningGold Letter OnlineGold News LetterHard Rock AnalystCasey ResearchKitco CaseyMotherlode NewsletterResource Opportunities Ruff TimesSilver InvestorThe Au ReportThe Gold & Oil GuyThe Simple InvestorThe History Of Gold & Silver

Handbook - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty - Prospect Theory Over time, researchers have become all too aware of the limitations of expected utility theory, especially those raised by the St. Petersburg, Allais, and Ellsberg paradoxes. As a result, numerous alternative theories have been developed to overcome the limitations of expected utility theory without losing its explanatory power. Prospect theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky is perhaps the most well-known of these alternative theories. This section covers the following topics: In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky conducted a series of thought experiments testing the Allais Paradox in Israel, at the University of Stockholm, and at the University of Michigan. More generally, if x and y are outcomes; 0 < p,q,r < 1, where p, q, and r refer to probabilities, they state that: (y, p*q) (x, p) (y, p*q*r) (x, p*r); where the term (outcome, probability) refers to a prospect. Kahnemann and Tversky also found strong evidence of what they referred to as the reflection effect.

Psychohistory Psychohistory is the pseudoscientific study of the psychological motivations of historical events.[1] It attempts to combine the insights of psychotherapy with the research methodology of the social sciences to understand the emotional origin of the social and political behavior of groups and nations, past and present. Its subject matter is childhood and the family, and psychological studies of anthropology and ethnology. Description[edit] Rembrandt's painting of the sacrifice of Isaac (Gen.22). Psychohistory derives many of its concepts from areas that are perceived to be ignored by conventional historians and anthropologists as shaping factors of human history, in particular, the effects of parenting practice and child abuse. Psychohistory relies heavily on historical biography. Areas of psychohistorical study[edit] There are three inter-related areas of psychohistorical study.[6] 1. 2. 3. Emergence as a discipline[edit] Independence as a discipline[edit] Psychogenic mode[edit] Notes[edit]

Suomalaistutkijat tekivät uudenlaisen hakukoneen Suomalaiset yliopistotutkijat ovat luoneet hakukoneen käyttöliittymän, joka näyttää osan hakutuloksesta kuvana. Kuvan tehtävä on auttaa käyttäjää hahmottamaan aihetta, johon hän on sukeltamassa. Se näyttää kerralla useita hakusanaan liittyviä aihealueita ja antaa helppoja välineitä haun ohjaamiseen. Käyttöliittymän tutkimusprototyyppi on nimeltään SciNet. – Se auttaa, kun hakija ei tiedä tarkasti, mitä etsii, vaan haluaa hankkia näkökulmia uuteen asiaan, sanoo hankkeen koordinaattori Tuukka Ruotsalo Helsingin yliopiston ja Aalto-yliopiston yhteisestä tietotekniikan tutkimuslaitoksesta Hiitistä. – SciNet toimii kuin älykäs ihminen, joka ei ymmärrä kysymystä, vertaa Hiitin johtaja, professori Samuel Kaski. – Se kysyy, tarkoititko tätä, vai kenties tätä.

How Much Space Does iOS 12 Take Up? You can also read this guide in Français. Every update on iOS is worth downloading and installing because of the assurance that there is something new and interesting. Just as iOS 11 came with so many mind-blowing features, so is iOS 12. However, before upgrading to iOS 12, we should make one thing clear: how much space does iOS 12 take up? If you’re an ardent iPhone user who uses their device heavily for activities such as to listen to podcast, play heavy games, take photos regularly, then you may have encounted the much dreaded “Not Enough Storage” prompt. How Much Space Does iOS 12 Take Up? The official iOS 12 public is about 2.24GB. We can expect the latest iOS 12 to run much faster than the old version, like up to 40% faster app launch, up to 50% faster keyboard display, or up to 70% fasterto camera. Note: Don't leave your iPhone or iPad with just a few GB free space because it can be easily full of storage, which is much easier than you thought. 1. 2. Way 1. Try It FreeTry It Free 1.

Expected utility hypothesis In economics, game theory, and decision theory the expected utility hypothesis refers to a hypothesis concerning people's preferences with regard to choices that have uncertain outcomes (gambles). This hypothesis states that if certain axioms are satisfied, the subjective value associated with a gamble by an individual is the statistical expectation of that individual's valuations of the outcomes of that gamble. This hypothesis has proved useful to explain some popular choices that seem to contradict the expected value criterion (which takes into account only the sizes of the payouts and the probabilities of occurrence), such as occur in the contexts of gambling and insurance. Daniel Bernoulli initiated this hypothesis in 1738. The von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem provides necessary and sufficient conditions under which the expected utility hypothesis holds. Expected value and choice under risk[edit] Bernoulli's formulation[edit] Nicolas Bernoulli described the St. The St. for .

Parametric determinism Parametric determinism refers to a Marxist interpretation of the course of history formulated by Prof. Ernest Mandel, and it could be viewed as one variant of Karl Marx's historical materialism or as a philosophy of history.[1] In an article critical of the Analytical Marxism of Jon Elster, Mandel explains the idea as follows: Dialectical determinism as opposed to mechanical, or formal-logical determinism, is also parametric determinism; it permits the adherent of historical materialism to understand the real place of human action in the way the historical process unfolds and the way the outcome of social crises is decided. Men and women indeed make their own history. The outcome of their actions is not mechanically predetermined. In formal-logical determinism, human action is considered either rational, and hence logically explicable, or else arbitrary and random. Brief explanation of the concept[edit] In this sense, Karl Marx had written: Ten implications[edit] Skeptical reply[edit]

T540p Intel HD Graphics Brighness and Sleep not wo... - Page 2 I got a brand-new Thinkpad T540p (64-bit Win7, 1920 x 1080 display) three days ago and it’s great except that each time it goes to Sleep or Hibernates there’s a roughly one-in-three chance that it will lock up and need a forced shut down. The brightness control works ok and this is Windows 7, not Windows 8. The drivers are all up-to-date according to Lenovo (I’ve done their recommended updates) but do you think this could be the same problem as described in this thread? Sometimes it freezes in the act of going to Sleep and other times it freezes on waking up. I’ve noticed three types of freeze: Type 1: the screen shows the default blue screensaver with a big ‘Think’ on it but won’t respond to any controls. In all three cases the keyboard lighting responds, the hard drive is spinning, the network connection is active, but the only way to a working desktop is a forced shutdown. I'm new to Lenovo so any help much appreciated. Edit 15-12-2013 13:59 T540p / 64-bit Win7 / 840 Pro SSD / Ultradock.

What did Napoleon like to read? | Shannon Selin Napoleon Bonaparte was a voracious reader. He had a personal librarian, he always travelled with books, and he took a great interest in constructing the ultimate portable library to accompany him on his military campaigns. Napoleon’s taste in books was primarily classical. He had some lifelong favourite authors, including Plutarch, Homer and Ossian. What else did he like to read? Napoleon reading Napoleon’s love of books According to his classmate (and later secretary) Louis Bourrienne, Napoleon read avidly from an early age. [Napoleon] would run to the library, where he read with great eagerness books of history, particularly Polybius and Plutarch. At the École Militaire in Paris and as a young artillery officer, Napoleon continued to read classical scholars, as well as more recent French and Italian authors. [Napoleon] was then a passionate admirer of Jean-Jacques [Rousseau]; … a fan of the masterpieces of Corneille, Racine and Voltaire. When Napoleon learned, on St.

Altruism Giving alms to the poor is often considered an altruistic action. Altruism or selflessness is the principle or practice of concern for the welfare of others. It is a traditional virtue in many cultures and a core aspect of various religious traditions and secular worldviews, though the concept of "others" toward whom concern should be directed can vary among cultures and religions. Altruism or selflessness is the opposite of selfishness. Altruism can be distinguished from feelings of loyalty. Pure altruism consists of sacrificing something for someone other than the self (e.g. sacrificing time, energy or possessions) with no expectation of any compensation or benefits, either direct, or indirect (e.g., receiving recognition for the act of giving). Much debate exists as to whether "true" altruism is possible. The notion of altruism[edit] The concept has a long history in philosophical and ethical thought. Individual variations[edit] A 1986 study estimated that altruism was half-inherited.

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