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Prospect theory

Prospect theory
The paper "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"[1] has been called a "seminal paper in behavioral economics".[2] Model[edit] The formula that Kahneman and Tversky assume for the evaluation phase is (in its simplest form) given by where is the overall or expected utility of the outcomes to the individual making the decision, are the potential outcomes and their respective probabilities. is a function that assigns a value to an outcome. is a probability weighting function and captures the idea that people tend to overreact to small probability events, but under react to large probabilities. Example[edit] To see how Prospect Theory can be applied, consider the decision to buy insurance. 1. 2. These expressions can be computed numerically. in losses, and hence the insurance looks unattractive. In this example, a strong overweighting of small probabilities undo the effect of the convexity of in losses: the potential outcome of losing $1,000 is overweighted. Applications[edit] Related:  rynysel

Waking Up At 4:30 For 21 Days On April 2, I put myself to a new challenge. It was one of the biggest life hacks I’ve ever done. The challenge was simple: waking up 21 consecutive workdays at 4:30 a.m., a challenge I gave the name of #21earlydays. I chose to only do the challenge on workdays because I knew that weekends and holidays are radically different for me. And why 21 days? But what was the final goal in all this? So, what have I learned from this? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. European Debt Crisis Fast Facts Cyprus: July 11, 2011 - A munitions explosion at a naval base kills 13 people and destroys the country's main power station. The resulting blackouts severely impact the tourism and finance sectors of the economy. December 23, 2011 - After a series of credit downgrades and exposure to the financial crisis in Greece, Cyprus signs an agreement with Russia for an emergency loan worth €2.5 billion to shore up its economy. Cyprus agrees to pay the loan back over 4.5 years with a 4.5% interest rate. June 25, 2012 - The government of Cyprus announces that it will seek a bailout from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to prop up its banks. January 21, 2013 - The Eurozone finance minister tells the government of Cyprus that a bailout will be delayed over concerns that the bailout of €17 billion is too large. February 24, 2013 - Conservative Nicos Anastasiades is elected president by a double-digit margin. March 28, 2013 - Banks reopen.

Barbara Vis wordt hoogleraar politieke besluitvorming - 2013 - Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam In haar onderzoek stelt Barbara Vis de vraag waarom sommige politici, politieke partijen en regeringen impopulaire beslissingen nemen en andere niet. Beslissingen als het verhogen van de pensioenleeftijd, het initiëren van een militaire interventie of het besluit van een politieke partij om haar standpunt op een belangrijk onderwerp te veranderen verhogen het risico op verlies van stemmen of regeringsdeelname. Toch gaat niet iedereen daar gelijk mee om. Om het verschil tussen volksvertegenwoordigers te duiden, gebruikt Barbara Vis inzichten uit de behavioral economics, in het bijzonder de prospecttheorie. Barbara Vis zal deze theorie toetsen in drie politieke situaties: het gedrag van politieke partijen, hervormingen van de verzorgingsstaat en militaire interventies. De Fenna Diemer Lindeboomleerstoelen zijn in 2005 in het leven zijn geroepen aan de VU om het aantal vrouwelijke hoogleraren te vergroten. Bezoek de persoonlijke pagina van Barbara Vis.

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Barbara Vis wordt hoogleraar politieke besluitvorming - 2013 - Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam In haar onderzoek stelt Barbara Vis de vraag waarom sommige politici, politieke partijen en regeringen impopulaire beslissingen nemen en andere niet. Beslissingen als het verhogen van de pensioenleeftijd, het initiëren van een militaire interventie of het besluit van een politieke partij om haar standpunt op een belangrijk onderwerp te veranderen verhogen het risico op verlies van stemmen of regeringsdeelname. Toch gaat niet iedereen daar gelijk mee om. Om het verschil tussen volksvertegenwoordigers te duiden, gebruikt Barbara Vis inzichten uit de behavioral economics, in het bijzonder de prospecttheorie. Barbara Vis zal deze theorie toetsen in drie politieke situaties: het gedrag van politieke partijen, hervormingen van de verzorgingsstaat en militaire interventies. De Fenna Diemer Lindeboomleerstoelen zijn in 2005 in het leven zijn geroepen aan de VU om het aantal vrouwelijke hoogleraren te vergroten.

T540p Intel HD Graphics Brighness and Sleep not wo... - Page 2 I got a brand-new Thinkpad T540p (64-bit Win7, 1920 x 1080 display) three days ago and it’s great except that each time it goes to Sleep or Hibernates there’s a roughly one-in-three chance that it will lock up and need a forced shut down. The brightness control works ok and this is Windows 7, not Windows 8. The drivers are all up-to-date according to Lenovo (I’ve done their recommended updates) but do you think this could be the same problem as described in this thread? Sometimes it freezes in the act of going to Sleep and other times it freezes on waking up. I’ve noticed three types of freeze: Type 1: the screen shows the default blue screensaver with a big ‘Think’ on it but won’t respond to any controls. In all three cases the keyboard lighting responds, the hard drive is spinning, the network connection is active, but the only way to a working desktop is a forced shutdown. I'm new to Lenovo so any help much appreciated. Edit 15-12-2013 13:59 T540p / 64-bit Win7 / 840 Pro SSD / Ultradock.

How Much Space Does iOS 12 Take Up? You can also read this guide in Français. Every update on iOS is worth downloading and installing because of the assurance that there is something new and interesting. Just as iOS 11 came with so many mind-blowing features, so is iOS 12. However, before upgrading to iOS 12, we should make one thing clear: how much space does iOS 12 take up? If you’re an ardent iPhone user who uses their device heavily for activities such as to listen to podcast, play heavy games, take photos regularly, then you may have encounted the much dreaded “Not Enough Storage” prompt. How Much Space Does iOS 12 Take Up? The official iOS 12 public is about 2.24GB. We can expect the latest iOS 12 to run much faster than the old version, like up to 40% faster app launch, up to 50% faster keyboard display, or up to 70% fasterto camera. Note: Don't leave your iPhone or iPad with just a few GB free space because it can be easily full of storage, which is much easier than you thought. 1. 2. Way 1. Try It FreeTry It Free 1.

Wolfgang Wagner — Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Wolfgang Wagner studied Political Science, German Literature and Philosophy in Tübingen (Germany) and Yellow Springs, Ohio (USA). He holds a PhD from the Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe University Frankfurt am Main and taught at the universities of Tübingen, Frankfurt, Konstanz, Darmstadt and Mannheim. Between 2002 and 2007 he worked at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF). He was a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley in 2007 and at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin in 2016. My research revolves around domestic politics and conflict in liberal democracies. This line of research is inspired by the so-called Democratic Peace Theory, i.e. the idea that democracies stand out for not waging war against each other. Together with my colleague at the VU law faculty, Wouter Werner, I have been looking into the role of punitivity in motivating the use of force in liberal democracies.

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CO2 Science I was wondering if you would know what the mechanisms are that cause carbon dioxide to trap heat inside the atmosphere? Submitted by: Colleen Answer: The mechanism by which carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere is commonly referred to as the "greenhouse effect." Barbara Vis wordt hoogleraar politieke besluitvorming - 2013 - Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam In haar onderzoek stelt Barbara Vis de vraag waarom sommige politici, politieke partijen en regeringen impopulaire beslissingen nemen en andere niet. Beslissingen als het verhogen van de pensioenleeftijd, het initiëren van een militaire interventie of het besluit van een politieke partij om haar standpunt op een belangrijk onderwerp te veranderen verhogen het risico op verlies van stemmen of regeringsdeelname. Toch gaat niet iedereen daar gelijk mee om. Om het verschil tussen volksvertegenwoordigers te duiden, gebruikt Barbara Vis inzichten uit de behavioral economics, in het bijzonder de prospecttheorie. Volgens die theorie beïnvloedt de context van winst of verlies het risico van een besluit. De theorie voorspelt dat mensen voorzichtig worden in hun besluitvorming als ze op winst staan in de peilingen en makkelijker risico’s opzoeken of accepteren als ze toch al aan het verliezen zijn. Bezoek de persoonlijke pagina van Barbara Vis.

Online advertising In 2011, Internet advertising revenues in the United States surpassed those of cable television and nearly exceeded those of broadcast television.[1]:19 In 2013, Internet advertising revenues in the United States totaled $42.8 billion, a 17% increase over the $36.57 billion in revenues in 2012.[2]:4–5 U.S. internet ad revenue hit a historic high of $20.1 billion for the first half of 2013, up 18% over the same period in 2012.[3] Online advertising is widely used across virtually all industry sectors.[1]:16 Many common online advertising practices are controversial and increasingly subject to regulation. Online ad revenues may not adequately replace other publishers' revenue streams. Declining ad revenue has led some publishers to hide their content behind paywalls.[4] History[edit] In early days of the Internet, online advertising was mostly prohibited. Search ads. Recent trends. Delivery methods[edit] Display advertising[edit] Web banner advertising[edit] Frame ad (traditional banner)[edit]

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