background preloader

Prospect theory

Prospect theory
The paper "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"[1] has been called a "seminal paper in behavioral economics".[2] Model[edit] The formula that Kahneman and Tversky assume for the evaluation phase is (in its simplest form) given by where is the overall or expected utility of the outcomes to the individual making the decision, are the potential outcomes and their respective probabilities. is a function that assigns a value to an outcome. is a probability weighting function and captures the idea that people tend to overreact to small probability events, but under react to large probabilities. Example[edit] To see how Prospect Theory can be applied, consider the decision to buy insurance. 1. 2. These expressions can be computed numerically. in losses, and hence the insurance looks unattractive. In this example, a strong overweighting of small probabilities undo the effect of the convexity of in losses: the potential outcome of losing $1,000 is overweighted. Applications[edit] Related:  rynysel

European Debt Crisis Fast Facts Cyprus: July 11, 2011 - A munitions explosion at a naval base kills 13 people and destroys the country's main power station. The resulting blackouts severely impact the tourism and finance sectors of the economy. December 23, 2011 - After a series of credit downgrades and exposure to the financial crisis in Greece, Cyprus signs an agreement with Russia for an emergency loan worth €2.5 billion to shore up its economy. Cyprus agrees to pay the loan back over 4.5 years with a 4.5% interest rate. June 25, 2012 - The government of Cyprus announces that it will seek a bailout from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to prop up its banks. January 21, 2013 - The Eurozone finance minister tells the government of Cyprus that a bailout will be delayed over concerns that the bailout of €17 billion is too large. February 24, 2013 - Conservative Nicos Anastasiades is elected president by a double-digit margin. March 28, 2013 - Banks reopen.

Handbook - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty - Prospect Theory Over time, researchers have become all too aware of the limitations of expected utility theory, especially those raised by the St. Petersburg, Allais, and Ellsberg paradoxes. As a result, numerous alternative theories have been developed to overcome the limitations of expected utility theory without losing its explanatory power. Prospect theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky is perhaps the most well-known of these alternative theories. This section covers the following topics: In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky conducted a series of thought experiments testing the Allais Paradox in Israel, at the University of Stockholm, and at the University of Michigan. More generally, if x and y are outcomes; 0 < p,q,r < 1, where p, q, and r refer to probabilities, they state that: (y, p*q) (x, p) (y, p*q*r) (x, p*r); where the term (outcome, probability) refers to a prospect. Kahnemann and Tversky also found strong evidence of what they referred to as the reflection effect.

Newsletters | Mining News | Gold News | Gold Mining News | Mining Newsletters Newsletters & Periodicals Below is a list of newsletters where one can find information on the different mining stocks, metals and minerals. Please keep in mind that does not endorse any of these writers or their publications. As always, do your own due diligence and remember that there is a degree of risk with any investment. Please read our disclaimer. Aden ForecastAhead Of The Herd Daily ReckoningGold Letter OnlineGold News LetterHard Rock AnalystCasey ResearchKitco CaseyMotherlode NewsletterResource Opportunities Ruff TimesSilver InvestorThe Au ReportThe Gold & Oil GuyThe Simple InvestorThe History Of Gold & Silver

Expected utility hypothesis In economics, game theory, and decision theory the expected utility hypothesis refers to a hypothesis concerning people's preferences with regard to choices that have uncertain outcomes (gambles). This hypothesis states that if certain axioms are satisfied, the subjective value associated with a gamble by an individual is the statistical expectation of that individual's valuations of the outcomes of that gamble. This hypothesis has proved useful to explain some popular choices that seem to contradict the expected value criterion (which takes into account only the sizes of the payouts and the probabilities of occurrence), such as occur in the contexts of gambling and insurance. Daniel Bernoulli initiated this hypothesis in 1738. The von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem provides necessary and sufficient conditions under which the expected utility hypothesis holds. Expected value and choice under risk[edit] Bernoulli's formulation[edit] Nicolas Bernoulli described the St. The St. for .

How Much Space Does iOS 12 Take Up? You can also read this guide in Français. Every update on iOS is worth downloading and installing because of the assurance that there is something new and interesting. Just as iOS 11 came with so many mind-blowing features, so is iOS 12. However, before upgrading to iOS 12, we should make one thing clear: how much space does iOS 12 take up? If you’re an ardent iPhone user who uses their device heavily for activities such as to listen to podcast, play heavy games, take photos regularly, then you may have encounted the much dreaded “Not Enough Storage” prompt. How Much Space Does iOS 12 Take Up? The official iOS 12 public is about 2.24GB. We can expect the latest iOS 12 to run much faster than the old version, like up to 40% faster app launch, up to 50% faster keyboard display, or up to 70% fasterto camera. Note: Don't leave your iPhone or iPad with just a few GB free space because it can be easily full of storage, which is much easier than you thought. 1. 2. Way 1. Try It FreeTry It Free 1.

Welcome to COSO March 9, 2022 COSO Releases New Guidance: Enabling Organizational Agility in an Age of Speed and Disruption As radical change transforms the world we live in, organizations should regularly align their enterprise risk management (ERM) process with the current business environment and their strategic goals, according to new guidance issued today from the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO). Enabling Organizational Agility in an Age of Speed and Disruption is intended to serve as a guide to help organizations succeed by being more anticipatory, agile, and adaptable. News Release Guidance February 24, 2022 COSO Board Approves Study on Sustainability/ESG COSO has approved a study to develop supplemental guidance and insights to its authoritative 2013 Internal Control – Integrated Framework (ICIF) in the areas of sustainability and ESG. News Release September 15, 2021 COSO Releases New Guidance: Realize the Full Potential of Artificial Intelligence News Release

CO2 Science I was wondering if you would know what the mechanisms are that cause carbon dioxide to trap heat inside the atmosphere? Submitted by: Colleen Answer: The mechanism by which carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere is commonly referred to as the "greenhouse effect." Interactieve Grafiek: Wie zijn de grootste CO2-vervuilers? E... 2030 is nu Decennialang stootten de Verenigde Staten het meeste CO2 ter wereld uit. Tot de economische groei in China een hoge vlucht neemt. In 1960 stoot geen enkel land ter wereld meer CO2 uit dan de VS. Met 2.888 miljoen ton stoot de economische grootmacht dat jaar zelfs meer CO2 uit dan de drie volgende landen op de lijst samen: Rusland, Duitsland en China. De volgende vijftig jaar handhaven de Verenigde Staten hun positie als veruit de grootste CO2-vervuiler ter wereld. Tot rond millenniumwisseling China radicale economische hervormingen begint door te voeren. Vandaag is China ’s werelds grootste uitstoter van CO2. Maar als we gaan kijken per hoofd van de bevolking, zijn het de inwoners van de rijke oliestaten die de grootste hoeveelheden CO2 uitstoten. En hoe zit het met de Belgen? En als land sturen we 100 miljoen ton CO2 de atmosfeer in. Op de interactieve kaart zie je de evolutie van de CO2-uitstoot doorheen de tijd. (c) Courtesy of Politiken Auteur: Kristian Jensen

Nail fungus Diagnosis Your doctor will examine your nails. He or she may also take some nail clippings or scrape debris from under your nail and send the sample to a lab to identify the type of fungus causing the infection. Other conditions, such as psoriasis, can mimic a fungal infection of the nail. Microorganisms such as yeast and bacteria also can infect nails. Knowing the cause of your infection helps determine the best course of treatment. Treatment Fungal nail infections can be difficult to treat. Medications Your doctor may prescribe antifungal drugs that you take orally or apply to the nail. Oral antifungal drugs. Surgery Your doctor might suggest temporary removal of the nail so that he or she can apply the antifungal drug directly to the infection under the nail. Some fungal nail infections don't respond to medicines. Lifestyle and home remedies Often, you can take care of a fungal nail infection at home: Try over-the-counter antifungal nail creams and ointments. Preparing for your appointment

What did Napoleon like to read? | Shannon Selin Napoleon Bonaparte was a voracious reader. He had a personal librarian, he always travelled with books, and he took a great interest in constructing the ultimate portable library to accompany him on his military campaigns. Napoleon’s taste in books was primarily classical. He had some lifelong favourite authors, including Plutarch, Homer and Ossian. What else did he like to read? Napoleon reading Napoleon’s love of books According to his classmate (and later secretary) Louis Bourrienne, Napoleon read avidly from an early age. [Napoleon] would run to the library, where he read with great eagerness books of history, particularly Polybius and Plutarch. At the École Militaire in Paris and as a young artillery officer, Napoleon continued to read classical scholars, as well as more recent French and Italian authors. [Napoleon] was then a passionate admirer of Jean-Jacques [Rousseau]; … a fan of the masterpieces of Corneille, Racine and Voltaire. When Napoleon learned, on St.

Age of Revolution Home Page - Age of Revolution New Ideas on Old Wars - The Archaeology of War - Australian National Maritime Museum Maritime archaeologists and technicians study the shipboard computer screens during the 3D photographic survey of submarine HMAS AE1, in early 2018. Image courtesy Navigea Ltd. Expanding the Archaeologist’s toolkit Once upon a time, the archaeologist’s toolkit was likely to consist of a shovel, trowel, bucket, brush, stakes and string. Today it includes a multitude of technological tools such as magnetometers, drones, ground-penetrating radar, 3D imaging and all sorts of acronyms including DGPS, LIDAR, ROVs, AUVs and many more. In the past, archaeologists were digging trenches in the ground or diving in shallow waters. Today, an archaeologist can ‘look’ below the ground without even digging, they can send remote operating vehicles to incredible depths under water, and some are even investigating the potential for an ‘archaeology of the air’. Examining the site of the Battle of Waterloo using metal detectors. Archaeology offers new insights of historic battles At the Kokoda Track Museum.

Waterloo Cowards : Belgian and Dutch Troops : Netherland Troops : Quatre Bras At Quatre Bras the Dutch/Belgian troops saved Wellington's reputation."The Netherlands troops had fought a combat with the French troops the previous evening. They had done so on their own initiative , ---- choosing not to carry out Wellington's order to move their entire force on Nivelles." (- Peter Hofschroer) Quatre Bras was a very small village located near the important crossroards on the road to Brussels. Kincaid recounted, "Quatre Bras at that time consisted of only 3 or 4 houses ... " The morning before battle was relatively quiet until about 2 pm when the Dutch-Belgian and Nassau patrols met the French. Wellington not yet returned from his meeting with Blucher at Ligny and the troops were under the command of Prince of Orange. Behind the Dutch-Belgian positions were several roads but these were blocked by British and German troops being in a state of confusion. The Netherlands troops had been holding their positions unaided for long time. Charges of French light cavalry.