background preloader

Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions

Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions
Related:  Scanning sources - general

Made by Steve Hoefer Mobility Hasn’t Changed, But It Means Less Than It Used To by Daniel Altman A new study from some top economists shows that income mobility in the United States hasn’t changed in half a century. At any rate, that’s the way plenty of news outlets wrote their headlines. Yet the study also makes a much more worrying point: income mobility is much less powerful than it used to be. Here are some of the headlines from this morning: All of these headlines are referring to one finding of the study: given a person’s starting position, the chances of moving up or down the income distribution are about the same today as they were in the past several decades. Today, the income distribution is far more skewed than it used to be, and most of the skew is at the top. To see why, let’s say that income mobility still hasn’t changed today. What will this mean for the person’s actual income? Despite the lack of changes in mobility, the child can expect to end up further from the top quintile now than at any time in the past 35 years. Image courtesy of Shutterstock

Link Shell Extension Unroll follows Outer Junctions/Symlink Directories and rebuilds the content of Outer Junctions/Symlink Directories inside the hierarchy at the destination location. Unroll also applies to Outer Symlink Files, which means, that unroll causes the target of Outer Symlink Files to be copied to the destination location. In the above example Folder1 is copied to Destination/Folder1, and Outer Junction/Symlink and all the files/directories below Outer Junction/Symlink Target are copied to the folder Outer Junction/Symlink in the destination. The objective behind unrolling Outer Junctions/Symlink Directories is to get everything with which the source is connected and rebuild it as seperate copy in the destination. Unroll is the default behaviour for Smart Copy, Smart Mirror, Delorean Copy and Clone. Advanced thoughts on Unrolling The picture above was just the simplest case, because Unroll does much more when it encounters complex situations. This kind of nesting can be much more complex:

Envisioning the World of Tomorrow: a Catalog of Future-Looking Web Sites What technologies are currently shaping our world…and which will continue to mold our future? In this special posting, we’ll take you on a tour of many wondrous web sites and other resources that aim spotlights at the future. And invite you all to chime in with favorites that I missed! These visionary sites keep an eye on breakthroughs in scientific research and advances in cutting edge technologies. They offer insights into innovative trends that impact industry, education, energy, entertainment, transportation, economics, medicine, and war… with repercussions that spread through all aspects of society. What progress is happening in artificial intelligence, computers, robotics, drones, biotechnology and nanotechnology? Websites that explore the Future Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies (IEET)—a “technoprogressive” think tank—promotes the concept of positive technological progress and its ethical use to catalyze future human development. Discussing the Future: Podcasts .

Lady Blackbird: Adventures in the Wild Blue Yonder Lady Blackbird is on the run from an arranged marriage to Count Carlowe. She hired a smuggler skyship, The Owl, to take her from her palace on the Imperial world of Ilysium to the far reaches of the Remnants, so she could be with her once secret lover: the pirate king Uriah Flint. HOWEVER, just before reaching the halfway point of Haven, The Owl was pursued and captured by the Imperial cruiser Hand of Sorrow, under charges of flying a false flag. EVEN NOW, Lady Blackbird, her bodyguard, and the crew of The Owl are detained in the brig, while the Imperial commander runs the smuggler ship’s registry over the wireless. How will Lady Blackbird and the others escape the Hand of Sorrow? What dangers lie in their path? Will they be able to find the secret lair of the pirate king? Go.

About the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies was formed to study and debate vital questions such as: Which technologies, especially new ones, are likely to have the greatest impact on human beings and human societies in the 21st century?What ethical issues do those technologies and their applications raise for humans, our civilization, and our world?How much can we extrapolate from the past and how much accelerating change should we anticipate?What sort of policy positions can be recommended to promote the best possible outcomes for individuals and societies? IEET's Mission The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies is a nonprofit think tank which promotes ideas about how technological progress can increase freedom, happiness, and human flourishing in democratic societies. Learn More IEET Introductory Literature Technology and democracy complement one another, ensuring that safe technology is generally accessible and democratically accountable.

Scopa (Kartenspiel) Scopa (italienisch für Besen) ist ein beliebtes italienisches Kartenspiel. Gespielt wird üblicherweise mit einem eigenen Deck, den sogenannten napoletanischen Karten (carte napoletane). Im Handel sind diese Karten auch unter der Bezeichnung Piacentine 109 zu beziehen. Napoletanische Karten Das Spiel besitzt 40 Karten in vier Farben. denari - Gold, dargestellt als Münzen (auch Sonnen genannt)bastoni - Stäbecoppe - Kelchespade - Schwerter In allen Farben laufen die Werte der Karten von eins bis zehn, wobei das Ass die Eins ist mit jeweils nur einem abgebildeten Gegenstand, die Karten Zwei bis Sieben zeigen dementsprechend die jeweilige Anzahl an Gegenständen. Ein Spiel setzt sich aus mehreren Runden zusammen. Es gibt je einen Punkt für eine scopa. Außerdem gibt es jeweils genau einen Punkt für den Spieler oder die Partei mit den meisten Karten (carte): hierbei sind die Werte der Karten ohne Bedeutung, es zählt nur die Anzahl. mit dem goldenen König (re bello). PDF bei

Error Page †Introductory offers to be billed 4 weekly as per the following - The Australian Digital Subscription $3 per week, $12 billed 4 weekly; The Australian Digital Subscription + weekend paper delivery $3 per week, $12 billed 4 weekly; The Australian Digital Subscription + 6 day paper delivery $6 per week, $24 billed 4 weekly. At the end of the initial 12 weeks, subscriptions will automatically renew to the higher price to be billed 4 weekly as per the following - The Australian Digital Subscription $6 per week, $24 billed 4 weekly; The Australian Digital Subscription + weekend paper delivery $6 per week, $24 billed 4 weekly; The Australian Digital Subscription + 6 day paper delivery $12 per week, $48 billed 4 weekly. Renewals occur unless cancelled.

DJ Helper Home Page undefined Table of contents What is this? Features Detailed description Installation / Requirements Download Tutorial - How to set up double WinAmps Tutorial - How to do instant switches Tutorial - Beatmixing for everyone Tutorial - Using the "Metronome" method Tutorial - Organizing your songs Additional hints License, Copyright & contact information The DJ Helper is a plugin for WinAmp, the "ultimate high-fidelity music player for Windows". The DJ Helper gives WinAmp more features than professional DJ-type CD players that cost $500 or more. Using the DJ Helper and a standard PC with two soundcards, you can master performances like a pro DJ, with unprecedented ease. New in version 2.5: New look, with WinAmp-like colors (at last...). New in version 2.5: Automatic volume control. New in version 2.5: Automatic BPM counting. New in version 2.5: Playing status indicator (Playing/Paused/Cued, etc). New in version 2.2: Three independent Cue Points, all of them savable. Temporary pitch bend by +/- 3%.

Review The Future | The Podcast That Takes an In-Depth Look at the Impact of Technology on Culture The First Few Milliseconds of an HTTPS Connection Convinced from spending hours reading rave reviews, Bob eagerly clicked “Proceed to Checkout” for his gallon of Tuscan Whole Milk and… Whoa! What just happened? In the 220 milliseconds that flew by, a lot of interesting stuff happened to make Firefox change the address bar color and put a lock in the lower right corner. By agreement of RFC 2818, Firefox knew that “https” meant it should connect to port 443 at Most people associate HTTPS with SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) which was created by Netscape in the mid 90’s. Client Hello TLS wraps all traffic in “records” of different types. The next two bytes are 0x0301 which indicate that this is a version 3.1 record which shows that TLS 1.0 is essentially SSL 3.1. The handshake record is broken out into several messages. Random: There are four bytes representing the current Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) in the Unix epoch format, which is the number of seconds since January 1, 1970. Server Hello Checking out the Certificate

About Us About Us | Staff | Contact | Write for Us | Advertise | Terms of Use | Subscribe “The science of association is the mother science; the progress of all the others depends on the progress of that one.” —Alexis de Toqueville Pacific Standard covers the nation’s biggest issues in economics, education, the environment, and justice by focusing on what shapes human behavior—on why we do what we do, and why it matters. Our publications include a bimonthly print magazine and a dynamic website, Join us by subscribing to our magazine, liking us on Facebook, following us on Twitter, or by writing or working for us. Facebook | Twitter | LinkedIn | Google+ | Instagram | Pinterest | Tumblr | YouTube True to the mission of the Miller-McCune Center, the award-winning Pacific Standard magazine and companion website,, reaches more than 1,000,000 readers each month with evocative research-based articles featuring the best of the social sciences.

Convert Physical Machines To Virtual Machines With VMware vCenter Converter VMware vCenter Converter is a free application to convert physical local and remote machines into virtual machines. The conversion is supported for both physical machines and virtual machine formats. vCenter has versions for Windows and Linux based operating system which includes Windows Server 2008. The conversion of physical machines into virtual machines takes place without disruption or down time, which means that you can convert physical servers into virtual servers without suffering from network disruptions. vCenter can be used to convert multiple virtual machines simultaneously, however, you might need some good hardware to ensure the process to be seamless. You can convert a physical machine by clicking on Convert Machine and following the steps of the conversion wizard. Similarly, you can select a backup or VM image to convert it between separate formats from the Configure Machine option. Download VMware vCenter Converter Advertisement