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Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions

Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions

Dreams of Autarky by Robin Hanson Sept 2001, First version Sept 1999 Genie nanotech, space colonies, Turing-test A.I., a local singularity, crypto credentials, and private law are all dreams of a future where some parts of the world economy and society have an unusually low level of dependence on the rest of the world. But it is the worldwide division of labor that has made us humans rich, and I suspect we won't let it go for a long time to come. Introduction Many of us expect humanity to encounter enormous changes in the next century, changes that we would do well to consider seriously now. But the fact is that many, and probably most, people who are ``smart" and ``knowledgeable" by standard objective measures disagree with this assessment. How can we come to terms with this disagreement? One favorite response to this predicament is to invoke common biases in human reasoning. Since we are human, we must acknowledge that we too suffer from any common human biases. Expecting Autarky Space Colonies Soon

Evolution's Arrow Our role in the future evolution of life John Stewart Member of the Evolution, Complexity and Cognition Research Group, The Free University of , 6 June 2008 A completely new phase in the evolution of life on Earth has begun. In this new phase evolution will be driven intentionally, by humanity. At present humanity is lost. But this difficult period is coming to an end. At the heart of the evolutionary worldview is the fact that evolution has a trajectory—it heads in a particular direction. It is as if evolution is a developmental process. Across the planet at the beginning of the twenty first century, individuals are beginning to realize the importance of the transition to intentional evolution. This role requires them to promote the new evolutionary worldview that will drive the transition. Evolutionary activists use the trajectory of evolution to identify what they need to do to advance evolution.

14 Wild Ideas Many Worlds , Medicine Useless , A.I. via Common Sense , Cryonics , Uploads , I'm in Sim , Fast Growth , Growth Stops , Colonize Galaxy , No Aliens , Aliens Came & Left , Private Law , Futarchy , No One Honest . by Robin Hanson , Oct. 18, 2001 A wild idea is one that many people think is obviously quite unlikely. I'd say at least a third of these wild ideas are likely true. Many times each day, your mind permanently splits into different versions that live in different worlds.