Real Time Economics

China’s GDP growth fell in the first quarter to its slowest pace since September of 2012, slipping to 7.4% on-year growth from 7.7% the in the fourth quarter. The increase was slightly higher than economists’ expectations of a 7.3% gain. Authorities released other data that suggested continuing weakness, but not at a quickening pace. Fixed-asset investment, meanwhile, slipped to 17.6% on year in the first quarter from 17.9% growth in the first two months. Markets rose on the data, with both the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets clicking higher. Some economists saw a massaging of the GDP figures.

Calculated Risk The Economy and the Economics of Everyday Life - Economix Blog First Trust Economics Blog - The Antidote to Conventional Wisdom When it comes to forecasting near-term real GDP growth, there are parts of the economy that are easy to follow and then there parts of it that are tough. The easy parts (with lots of timely information) are consumer spending, business investment, and home building. And despite one of the worst winters in multiple decades, this portion of the economy looks like it grew at a solid 2.5% to 3% annual rate in the first quarter, right in-line with the trend since the recession ended in mid-2009. To get that kind of growth during this past brutal winter means the underlying fundamentals of the economy are gathering strength. The problem, at least as far as Q1 is concerned, is that the parts of GDP where we have less information look downright ugly. This doesn’t mean the Plow Horse is headed for the glue factory. Here’s the first quarter, component by component: Home Building: Somehow, despite the weather, the housing rebound persevered through Q1. Inventories: Inventories surged in Q3 and Q4.

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Martin Wolf - Financial Times Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 “for services to financial journalism”. Mr Wolf is an honorary fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford, honorary fellow of Corpus Christi College, Oxford University, an honorary fellow of the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy (Oxonia) and an honorary professor at the University of Nottingham. He has been a forum fellow at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos since 1999 and a member of its International Media Council since 2006. He was made a Doctor of Letters, honoris causa, by Nottingham University in July 2006. To receive an email alert for Martin Wolf, sign up at the top of any his columns.

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