Economy tracker: GDP 28 January 2014Last updated at 10:41 ET Continue reading the main story Latest news: BBC's Declan Curry explains just what GDP stands for and why we should care The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2013, down slightly from 0.8% in the third quarter of the year, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The figures mean that in 2013 the economy showed its strongest growth since 2007. The ONS data for construction was down 0.3% over the quarter, despite the recent recovery in a housing market. The services sector, which represents three-quarters of economic output, grew by 0.8%. After 1992, the UK economy and average household incomes enjoyed a period of unbroken growth. But in 2008, the global financial crisis plunged the UK into its longest and deepest recession since comparable records began in the 1950s. More than a million people lost their jobs as businesses - from shops to manufacturers and banks - either closed or laid off staff.
Recovered Sustainable Means Bunkty to Me 1977 views this month; 1977 overall What? Don’t know what bunkty means? Now you know how I feel about the word “sustainable.” My paper towels separate into smaller segments than they once did. It’s sustainable! I think most would agree that the rapid depletion we currently witness in natural resources and services, climate stability, water availability, soil quality, and fisheries—to name a few—suggests that we do not live sustainably at present. Sustainability, in Numbers I have made the case in the past that growth—either in physical measures like population, energy use, etc., or in economic terms—cannot continue indefinitely in our finite world. If we think about the fact that growth must one day end, we realize that an ultimate steady state would tend to reduce income inequalities. Our dream is that the poor of the world can improve their standard of living toward first-world norms. You may object that Americans don’t eat five times more food than the average Earthling today.
The Science of Climate Change | Environment Climate negotiators are meeting in Durban, South Africa beginning from November 28-December 9 to discuss the planet's changing climate. The first decade of this century was the hottest on record. Polar ice is melting. Global sea levels are rising. And the vast majority of scientists attribute the changes to greenhouse gases, both natural from water vapor and man-made from burning fossil fuels, that trap heat in the lower atmosphere. "Since roughly the 1850s or so, we've seen an increase globally of about eight-tenths of a degree Celsius, so that's roughly 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit," said Todd Sanford, a climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington. A one-degree difference is not noticeable in daily temperatures, but a one-degree change in global average temperature is significant. Alden Meyer, the director of climate strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, says global warming affects weather and water cycles. "Supposing the other side is wrong?
Scottish split would hit UK growth, warns top investment group Such a large fall in growth would make interest rate rises less likely, have a “marked negative impact” on sterling and reduce gilt yields, Mr Page said. This is likely to mean that mortgage rates would remain low but could mean further cuts in annuity rates for pensioners. Separately, the Governor of the Bank of England said on Tuesday that Scottish independence was “incompatible” with a formal currency union with the rest of Britain. Mark Carney said the experience of the eurozone showed that currency unions without fiscal union did not work. He said there were three components of a successful currency union – free movement of capital, labour, services and trade; a banking union with the same regulations and supervision on both sides; and a fiscal arrangement that would stabilise “inevitable fluctuations” between the economies. “We carried out these switches when we saw the gap closing to dangerously low levels,” Nick Hungerford, the founder and chief executive of Nutmeg, said.
Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist [slimstat f='count' w='ip' lf='resource contains economist'] views this month; [slimstat f='count' w='ip' lf='strtotime equals 2011-07-01|interval equals -1'] overall Some while back, I found myself sitting next to an accomplished economics professor at a dinner event. Shortly after pleasantries, I said to him, “economic growth cannot continue indefinitely,” just to see where things would go. It was a lively and informative conversation. I was somewhat alarmed by the disconnect between economic theory and physical constraints—not for the first time, but here it was up-close and personal. Cast of characters: Physicist, played by me; Economist, played by an established economics professor from a prestigious institution. Note: because I have a better retention of my own thoughts than those of my conversational companion, this recreation is lopsided to represent my own points/words. Act One: Bread and Butter Physicist: Hi, I’m Tom. Economist: Hi Tom, I’m [ahem..cough]. Total U.S.
UK economic growth passes pre-crisis peak | Business The UK economy is growign faster than its pre-crisis peak but economists warn of turbulence ahead. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA Britain's economy powered on in the second quarter, recording its strongest growth since before the financial crisis, but economists warned the pressure was on UK consumers and businesses to sustain the recovery amid the threat of a triple-dip recession in the eurozone. Growth between April and June was confirmed at 0.8% by the Office for National Statistics in its second estimate, in line with expectations. The last time the economy grew by more than 0.8% was the third quarter of 2007, before the global financial crisis took hold. The annual growth rate was revised up from 3.1% to 3.2% – the strongest in more than six years. The Treasury said: "Today's figures confirm that our economy has recovered all of the output lost in the 'Great Recession', and is now bigger than its previous peak in the first quarter of 2008.
Galactic-Scale Energy Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, we have seen an impressive and sustained growth in the scale of energy consumption by human civilization. Plotting data from the Energy Information Agency on U.S. energy use since 1650 ( 1635-1945 , 1949-2009 , including wood, biomass, fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear, etc.) shows a remarkably steady growth trajectory, characterized by an annual growth rate of 2.9% (see figure). It is important to understand the future trajectory of energy growth because governments and organizations everywhere make assumptions based on the expectation that the growth trend will continue as it has for centuries—and a look at the figure suggests that this is a perfectly reasonable assumption. (See this update for nuances.) Total U.S. Growth has become such a mainstay of our existence that we take its continuation as a given. This post provides a striking example of the impossibility of continued growth at current rates—even within familiar timescales.
UK economic growth revised up to 3.2% 15 August 2014Last updated at 05:42 ET The UK economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, slightly higher than the original 3.1% estimate. But the Office for National Statistics' second estimate of growth in the April-to-June period left the quarter-on-quarter figure unchanged at 0.8%. The construction sector performed better than previously assumed. The figures confirm the UK economy saw its best economic performance for six years and has passed its 2008 peak. The services sector - which accounts for around 78% of UK economic activity - grew 1% in the second quarter, the ONS added. In June alone the services sector expanded by 0.3%. compared with May. The ONS preliminary estimate is based on about 40% of UK economic activity. Output in production grew 0.3% in the quarter, but agriculture contracted 0.2%. Construction was flat in the period but this was an improvement on the original estimate that it had contracted by 0.5%. Consumer-led
Growth thumbnail from NYT As a rejoinder to my piece a couple weeks ago (not really), the New York Times published an article on population growth, and why we need not worry. The problem—and solution—is all in our head. The bottom line was that we have always transformed our ecosystem to provide what we need, and in so doing have pushed the carrying capacity along with our growing population. Clearly there is a misunderstanding, but I’ll side with the natural scientists, naturally. Continue reading Sometimes considered a taboo subject, the issue of population runs as an undercurrent in virtually all discussions of modern challenges. The subject is taboo for a few reasons. Recently, participating in a panel discussion in front of a room full of physics educators, I made the simple statement that “surplus energy grows babies.” So in the spirit of looking at the numbers, let’s explore in particular various connections between population and energy. Continue reading Continue reading Continue reading
Can Economic Growth Last? [slimstat f='count' w='ip' lf='resource contains can-economic'] views this month; [slimstat f='count' w='ip' lf='strtotime equals 2011-07-01 | interval equals -1'] overall As we saw in the previous post, the U.S. has expanded its use of energy at a typical rate of 2.9% per year since 1650. We learned that continuation of this energy growth rate in any form of technology leads to a thermal reckoning in just a few hundred years (not the tepid global warming, but boiling skin!). What does this say about the long-term prospects for economic growth, if anything? World economic growth for the previous century, expressed in constant 1990 dollars. The figure at left shows the rate of global economic growth over the last century, as reconstructed by J. The difference between economic and energy growth can be split into efficiency gains—we extract more activity per unit of energy—and “everything else.” Exponential vs. First, let’s address what I mean when I say growth. Potential Gains and Limits