Daily Speculations Mar March 10, 2015 | 1 Comment Nothing highlights the effect of currency moves like foreign travel. The dollar had a major upmove this past year against major currencies. A 20% discount on everything is notable when traveling. I'm in Japan now where everything is cheap to begin with (I guess due to deflation) and subtracting another 5th is amazing. March 9, 2015 | 13 Comments Kindly vote for the best entry to "what is a trader" contest. March 9, 2015 | 70 Comments I'm holding a snap contest with a $ 1,500 reward. [Sorry, the contest is now closed. March 9, 2015 | Leave a Comment I thought this was a very good paper with market parallels. Abstract: Because members of the public have difficulty understanding risk presented in terms of odds ratios (e.g., 1 in 1000) and in comparing odds ratios from different hazards, we examined the use of time intervals between expected harmful events to communicate risk. Isomorphisms writes: David Spiegelhalter did a video on millimorts and micromorts. 1. 2. 3.
Refuting a Global Warming Denier Dr. Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Programs at the Climate Institute in Washington, DC, provides a set of comments detailing intellectual errors and misleading statements in a recent report on “Climate Change and Its Impacts” by Prof. David Legates, a favorite scientist of the global warming denial machine, that was published by the National Center for Policy Analysis, a “free market” oriented policy organization. The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), a Dallas, Texas-based policy organization that takes right-wing positions on a range of issues, recently published a report by David R. Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware, titled "Climate Science: Climate Change and Its Impacts." NCPA, one of numerous organizations that are part of what we have termed the global warming denial machine, has been funded by ExxonMobil. A few statements from Prof. The full text of Dr.
Financial sector spent $5 bln lobbying DC last decade: Report By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. financial services firms spent more than $5 billion on lobbying and political donations between 1998 and 2008, and won fights on regulatory and political matters that contributed to the current financial collapse, according to a report from two watchdog groups. Essential Information, and the Consumer Education Foundation, reported that banks, investment firms and others made $1.7 billion of political contributions, and spent $3.4 billion on lobbying efforts in the last decade. The report, titled, "Sold Out: How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America," identified roughly 3,000 officially registered lobbyists working for the financial services industry in 2007. "These companies drew heavily from government in choosing their lobbyists. The securities industry, which topped all contributors to politicians, spent just over half a billion dollars on political contributions during the last decade, according to the report's authors.
Does Caring for “the Least of These” Demand Fighting Global Warming? Recently, my fellow evangelical scientists and academics sent a letter to the United States Congress urging immediate legislation on climate change. In an effort to care for the planet—God’s second greatest gift to humanity—they argue that our uncontrolled use of fossil fuels will disproportionately affect the poor, the vulnerable, and the oppressed. I applaud their concern for the environment and for those in defense of whom Jesus commanded us to be especially diligent. But their call to reduce carbon emissions would do more harm than good, especially to the “least of these” as referenced by Christ. Average global temperatures have not risen over at least the past fifteen years. Dr. By contrast, daytime maximum temperature is a much better measure of warming from greenhouse gases. Hurricane activity globally is at a thirty-year low, and the frequency of moderate to severe tornadoes (EF3-EF5) has not increased. Furthermore, oppression thrives when energy is restricted. Dr.
The Quiet Coup - Magazine The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time. Jim Bourg/Reuters/Corbis One thing you learn rather quickly when working at the International Monetary Fund is that no one is ever very happy to see you. The reason, of course, is that the IMF specializes in telling its clients what they don’t want to hear. Every crisis is different, of course. The downward spiral that follows is remarkably steep.
The oily operators behind the religious climate change disinformation front group, Cornwall Alliance By Climate Guest Contributor "The oily operators behind the religious climate change disinformation front group, Cornwall Alliance" Watch their absurdly paranoid video asserting environmentalism is “without doubt one of the greatest threats to society” today Defenders of the dirty energy status quo, particularly the lobbyists and politicians associated with the oil and coal industry, have repeatedly trotted out a group of evangelical leaders known as the Cornwall Alliance to counter the growing sentiment in the evangelical community that anthropogenic climate change is a threat to God’s creation. On Friday, at the polluter-funded Heritage Foundation, Cornwall rolled out its latest campaign called “Resisting the Green Dragon.” Thus far, Cornwall has been able to masquerade as a legitimate, independent group of pastors and religious leaders opposed to addressing climate change. For “stream lining” reasons, ISA relaunched as the Cornwall Alliance in 2006.
Where's My Super-Cheap Mortgage? By AnnaMaria Andriotis With mortgage rates at a 50-year low and banks near his Brookline, N.H., home touting offers of 4% or less, Tom Rogers thought it would be a perfect time to refinance. But in spite of a solid credit score, after an exhaustive survey of lenders in the area and online, Mr. Rogers couldn't find a single one willing to give him such a rock-bottom rate. "I was annoyed," he says. It is an increasingly common frustration. While there is always a spread -- not all borrowers qualify for the lowest rate, after all -- it is usually much smaller: An average spread is usually around 0.40 percentage point. The bigger discrepancy of late has little to do with borrowers' credit scores, which historically have largely decided what rates lenders choose to offer. Lenders say they haven't lowered rates further because, simply, they don't have to. The lowest advertised rates are available for only those borrowers with pristine credit.
Cornwall Alliance The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation is a conservative Christian public policy group that promotes a free-market approach to care for the environment that is critical of much of the current environmental movement. In particular, the Cornwall Alliance rejects claims of detrimental global warming.[1] Originally called the "Interfaith Stewardship Alliance" it was founded in 2005 in reaction to the efforts of evangelical leaders (such as Rick Warren) to fight global warming. The name Cornwall come from the 2000 Cornwall Declaration. Cornwall Declaration[edit] In 2000, a statement called the Cornwall Declaration on Environmental Stewardship was put forward and has been signed by over 1500 clergy, theologians and others according to Cornwall Alliance. The declaration states that human beings should be regarded as "producers and stewards" rather than "consumers and polluters". An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming[edit] Associated groups and individuals[edit]
Occupying Wall Street JANUARY 04, 2012 by SHELDON RICHMAN The Occupy Wall Street agenda is vague, but the protesters at least have the good sense to know that something is awry with the political-economic system we labor under. Protesters carried a variety of signs, one of which stated, “End corporate welfare.” The Associated Press reported, “Demonstrators said Saturday they were protesting against bank bailouts and the mortgage crisis.” One 21-year-old man told the AP, “The enemy is the big business leaders of Wall Street, the big oil company leaders, the coal company leaders, the big military industrial leaders.” Considering the housing and financial debacle that began in 2008, the continuing hardship it unleashed, the fortunes made in the run-up to the bust, and the tax-financed bailouts that followed, what’s wrong with feeling that “the system” has done a number on most Americans? Note that in the young man’s statement above, one word is glaringly absent: government. This was no anomaly.
The Green Agenda The Zurich Axioms Max Gunther set forth basic trading principles called The Zurich Axioms: On Risk: - Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough. - Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either. - Resist the allure of diversification. On Greed: - Always take your profit too soon. - Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out. On Hope: - When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. On Forecasts: - Human behaviour cannot be predicted. On Mobility: - Avoid putting down roots. On Intuition: - A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained. - Never confuse a hunch with a hope. On the Occult: - If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich. - A superstition need not be exorcised. On Consensus: - Disregard the majority opinion. Category: Markets, Trading