Economist's View

Gauti Eggertson and Neil Mehotra have an interesting new paper: A Model of Secular Stagnation, by Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra: 1 Introduction During the closing phase of the Great Depression in 1938, the President of the American Economic Association, Alvin Hansen, delivered a disturbing message in his Presidential Address to the Association (see Hansen ( 1939 )). He suggested that the Great Depression might just be the start of a new era of ongoing unemployment and economic stagnation without any natural force towards full employment. Recently Hansen’s secular stagnation hypothesis has gained increased attention. Despite the prominence of Summers’ discussion of the secular stagnation hypothesis and a flurry of commentary that followed it (see e.g. In the abstract, they note the policy prescriptions for secular stagnation: Posted by Mark Thoma on Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 10:08 AM in Academic Papers, Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink Comments (4) New column: Rajiv Sethi: Tim Duy:

A Dash of Insight This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention. Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence between economic fundamentals and what I called "fluff." This is another good illustration of the reason for my weekly post – planning for the week ahead. Naturally we would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. This Week's Theme I have almost 27 years of experience as a market professional. If earnings disappoint, it will be seized upon as confirmation of the bad economy, expensive stocks meme. If earnings satisfy, it might have a calming effect. I have some thoughts that I will share in the conclusion. Last Week's Data Each week I break down events into good and bad. The news is market-friendly. The Good The Bad The Ugly Humor

Grasping Reality with Both Hands Optimum, le seul blog véritablement optimal Pipes and Theories [ClearOnMoney] 5 Jan 2014 by Jim Fickett. The Census Bureau collects comprehensive accounts of state and local government finances. In particular, Census is the only source for an overall total figure for state and local government debt. Because there are many municipalities, these data are issued with a long delay, and the latest data current available are for 2011. Strained local government finances, with occasional bankruptcies, struggles to readjust pension funds, and cutbacks in services, will be a standard feature of life in the US for a long time. [See the Reference page State and local government debt for sources, background, and commentary on a number of related issues.]

The Becker-Posner Blog Blog Start Thinking Right FT Alphaville Tim Harford's Undercover Economist blog on the economics of everyday life | FT.com Tuesday archive : If the price is right From 8th July, 2006. If you want to be rich, you can try to set up a brilliantly successful company. Or you can steal money. Continued at timharford.com. Where you can find me You may have noticed that this blog has gone rather quiet while I work on my next book – sorry. So – thanks for following so far. Here is the FT RSS feed of all my Undercover Economist columns. The RSS feed of my website, timharford.com is here. And at the moment I’m far more active on Twitter, where I post links to all my writing and much else besides. Thanks for reading; I hope the click over to a new format isn’t too inconvenient. Undercover Economist: A sense of fair play does pay I recently had the dubious pleasure of having to deal with someone who is successful and indeed popular, and yet a stubborn, selfish bully when he thinks nobody is looking. The remainder of the article can be read here. Tuesday archive : Schoolboy error From 15th July, 2006. Continued at timharford.com.

Rationalité Limitée Tea with FT dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning S&P 500 Snapshot: A Sine Wave and Closing RallyApr 15, 2014 Doug Short Before the market opened, the Consumer Price Index for March came in higher than forecast, although inflation remains exceptionally tame, and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was surprisingly weak. S&P 500 ignored the economic data and resumed yesterday’s closing rally to its morning high about 20 minutes later. The Economy In PicturesApr 15, 2014 Lance Roberts It is sometimes helpful to view the various economic indicators and draw your own conclusions outside of someone else’s opinion. With the economy now more than 5 years into an expansion, which is long by historical standards, the question for you to answer by looking at the charts below is: "Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?" Inflation: A Five-Month X-Ray View: New UpdateApr 15, 2014 Doug Short Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI for each of the past five months. Auto Sales: Example of How U.S.