Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis This article deals with a subset of the intellectual process of intelligence analysis itself, as opposed to intelligence analysis management, which in turn is a subcomponent of intelligence cycle management. For a complete hierarchical list of articles in this series, see the intelligence cycle management hierarchy. Intelligence analysis is plagued by many of the cognitive traps also encountered in other disciplines. The first systematic study of the specific pitfalls lying between an intelligence analyst and clear thinking was carried out by Dick Heuer. According to Heuer, these traps may be rooted either in the analyst's organizational culture or his or her own personality. Types The most common personality trap, known as mirror-imaging is the analysts' assumption that the people being studied think like the analysts themselves. Inappropriate analogies are yet another cognitive trap. Organizational culture The "other culture" The social anthropologist Edward T.
Economics: Which Way for Obama? by John Cassidy Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Yale University Press, 293 pp., $26.00 The bursting of the housing bubble and the associated credit crunch has so far wiped out about $3 trillion of wealth—nobody knows the exact amount—caused havoc in the financial markets, and prompted hundreds of thousands of homeowners to default on their monthly mortgage payments. John McCain, for all his protestations that economics is not his strong point, has put forward a coherent, if somewhat heartless, case for doing nothing, or very little, anyway. Hillary Clinton, after initially equivocating, has emerged as the would-be heir to FDR and John Maynard Keynes. Barack Obama has also criticized McCain for sitting back and watching while so many American families face eviction. If Obama isn’t an old-school Keynesian, what is he? Thaler’s columns, some of which he coauthored with Kahneman and Tversky, ran under the rubric “Anomalies.”
Instagram Finally Breaks Free Of Its Mobile-Only Confines Instagram is slowly shedding the "mobile-only" label it gained when it launched almost exactly two years ago. Users of the wildly popular, Facebook-owned photo app are getting Web-based profiles, it was announced on Monday. This sensible, overdue move for Instagram stands to benefits its users, but it doesn't quite go all the way. Instagram has been moving toward Web app territory for several months, but this is the service's biggest step in that direction. In July, the Instagram added the ability to like and comment on photos from the Web version that gets pushed out via Twitter and Facebook. That update also included the ability to follow users when logged into your existing Instagram account in a Web browser. How Instagram Users Will Benefit Starting this week, users will start getting Facebook Timeline-style profiles that display their entire photo stream in the browser. There's Still A Wall Between Mobile And Web
Critical thinking Critical thinking is a type of clear, reasoned thinking. According to Beyer (1995) Critical thinking means making clear, reasoned judgements. While in the process of critical thinking, ideas should be reasoned and well thought out/judged. The National Council for Excellence in Critical Thinking defines critical thinking as the intellectually disciplined process of actively and skillfully conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or evaluating information gathered from, or generated by, observation, experience, reflection, reasoning, or communication, as a guide to belief and action Etymology In the term critical thinking, the word critical, (Grk. κριτικός = kritikos = "critic") derives from the word critic, and identifies the intellectual capacity and the means "of judging", "of judgement", "for judging", and of being "able to discern". Definitions According to the field of inquiry [weasel words], critical thinking is defined as: Skills Procedure
Bluetooth Headset Reviews | Bluetooth Headsets Review Whether you're in the car, or just need both your hands, you need a Bluetooth headset. PCMag's hands-on reviews will help you pick the right one. Top 10 HeadsetsIf you need both your hands, you need a solid headset; here are the 10 best we've tested. How We Test HeadsetsWe test Bluetooth headsets to make sure they stand up to real world conditions.
Screw the Power Users I designed HomeSite and TopStyle for power users. Only power users would want to edit HTML & CSS by hand, so I made sure to cater to them. Those products were filled with features and tool buttons, and their settings dialogs contained dozens of geeky options. Customers liked them that way. I liked them that way, too. But then I made FeedDemon. At first I built FeedDemon as though my customers were geeks like me, since that was what I was used to. So with each new version I tried to simplify the user interface, and dropped features & options that complicated the product. I’d come out with new versions that I thought dramatically improved the product, only to find my forums filled with complaints from power users who wanted the return of some obscure option, or were upset that I wasn't adding the geeky features they wanted. Sales went up, but positive feedback went down. Sure, if you're building a product for power users, make sure to cater to them.
Analysis paralysis Analysis paralysis or paralysis by analysis is an anti-pattern, the state of over-analyzing (or over-thinking) a situation so that a decision or action is never taken, in effect paralyzing the outcome. A decision can be treated as over-complicated, with too many detailed options, so that a choice is never made, rather than try something and change if a major problem arises. A person might be seeking the optimal or "perfect" solution upfront, and fear making any decision which could lead to erroneous results, when on the way to a better solution. The phrase describes a situation where the opportunity cost of decision analysis exceeds the benefits that could be gained by enacting some decision, or an informal or non-deterministic situation where the sheer quantity of analysis overwhelms the decision-making process itself, thus preventing a decision. History Software development Analysis paralysis is an example of an anti-pattern. Workplace Sports Board games
Self-Organization & Entropy - The Terrible Twins by Chris Lucas "Order is not pressure which is imposed on society from without, but an equilibrium which is set up from within."José Ortega y Gasset, Mirabeau and Politics, 1927 "Freedom and constraint are two aspects of the same necessity, which is to be what one is and no other." Introduction Many people will have heard of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Probable States So, which states are probable exactly ? Order in Context But what exactly is this order ? Entropy and Gasses Does this mean that Entropy is a meaningless concept ? Beyond Ideal Gasses Does this then apply to solids also ? Traditional Entropy, by assuming that ideal gas properties always apply, ignores many of the other constraints (or boundary conditions) that apply to real systems. For liquids we have an intermediate case, the weaker attractions here allow for some motion, but the atoms when moving drag neighbouring atoms along - the liquid flows. Complexity of Information Self-Organization Is this phenomenon widespread ?
Gestures as a New Dimension in Mobile Design Something clicked in my head while writing my most recent article. While looking at the various paradigms that have grown from Twitter’s UI, I noticed an aspect of design that is oft overlooked. That aspect is gestures. Gestures are something we use on a daily basis, but despite this, few people look at them as an element of an applications UI. Since the creation of touch screens, gestures have reigned in an entirely new aspect as to how we interact with our devices. Gestures allow users to perform specific tasks in an extremely efficient and more dynamic manner. Three applications that I have used and stick out to me most are Clear, Pair, and Paper. Clear Clear is unique in the fact that essentially every piece of the app is based around gestures. From creating a new todo, to deleting one, all it takes is a swipe. Pair Pair doesn’t use gestures in the sense that Clear does. To Thumb Kiss, both you and your partner have to have the app open. Paper The opportunities
Altruism Giving alms to the poor is often considered an altruistic action. Altruism or selflessness is the principle or practice of concern for the welfare of others. It is a traditional virtue in many cultures and a core aspect of various religious traditions and secular worldviews, though the concept of "others" toward whom concern should be directed can vary among cultures and religions. Altruism or selflessness is the opposite of selfishness. Altruism can be distinguished from feelings of loyalty. Much debate exists as to whether "true" altruism is possible. The notion of altruism The concept has a long history in philosophical and ethical thought. Individual variations A certain individual may behave altruistically in one case and egoistically in another situation. A 1986 study estimated that altruism was half-inherited. Scientific viewpoints Anthropology Marcel Mauss's book The Gift contains a passage: "Note on alms." Evolutionary explanations Group selection.
Self-organization Self-organization occurs in a variety of physical, chemical, biological, robotic, social and cognitive systems. Common examples include crystallization, the emergence of convection patterns in a liquid heated from below, chemical oscillators, swarming in groups of animals, and the way neural networks learn to recognize complex patterns. Overview The most robust and unambiguous examples of self-organizing systems are from the physics of non-equilibrium processes. Self-organization is also relevant in chemistry, where it has often been taken as being synonymous with self-assembly. Self-organization usually relies on three basic ingredients: Strong dynamical non-linearity, often though not necessarily involving positive and negative feedbackBalance of exploitation and explorationMultiple interactions Principles of self-organization History of the idea Sadi Carnot and Rudolf Clausius discovered the Second Law of Thermodynamics in the 19th century. Developing views
Startups, This Is How Design Works – by Wells Riley Parametric determinism Parametric determinism refers to a Marxist interpretation of the course of history formulated by Prof. Ernest Mandel, and it could be viewed as one variant of Karl Marx's historical materialism or as a philosophy of history. In an article critical of the Analytical Marxism of Jon Elster, Mandel explains the idea as follows: Dialectical determinism as opposed to mechanical, or formal-logical determinism, is also parametric determinism; it permits the adherent of historical materialism to understand the real place of human action in the way the historical process unfolds and the way the outcome of social crises is decided. Men and women indeed make their own history. In formal-logical determinism, human action is considered either rational, and hence logically explicable, or else arbitrary and random. What this means is that, in human situations, typically several "logics" are operating at the same time which together determine the outcomes of those situations: Ten implications