French employment 2020: Five priorities for action | McKinsey Global Institute | Labor Markets France’s labor market has been relatively resilient in the face of the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 and of the sovereign-debt crisis, which gathered full force last year. But unemployment has begun to rise again. Achieving a considerable boost to employment is now critical because it is difficult to see how, without reversing this decline, France can sustain a social safety net that is already under significant strain. Until the 1990s, France was among Europe’s leading economies in per capita GDP. By 2010, however, the country had dropped to 11th out of the EU-15. A report from the McKinsey Global Institute finds that to meet even moderate ambitions for employment and prosperity, France must create more than twice as many net new jobs annually as it did during the past 20 years. Unless France acts, by 2020 it may face a shortfall of 2.2 million highly skilled workers, and 2.3 million low-skilled workers will be unable to find jobs. Exhibit Enlarge
Economic forecasting Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Overview Many institutions engage in economic forecasting, including international organisations such as the IMF, World Bank and the OECD, national governments and central banks, and private sector entities, be they think-tanks, banks or others. Economists select which variables are important to the subject material under discussion. The economist typically considers risks (i.e., events or conditions that can cause the result to vary from their initial estimates). Purpose Forecasts are used for a variety of purposes. Sources of forecasts Global scope U.S. forecasts The U.S. Forecast summaries Forecast methods Issues in forecasting Forecast accuracy
ONS Home Output in the Construction Industry, November 2015 In November 2015, output in the construction industry was estimated to have decreased by 0.5% compared with October 2015. All new work was the largest contributor to the fall, decreasing by 0.7%, with repair and maintenance (R&M) falling 0.2%. Index of Production, November 2015 Production output increased by 0.9% in November 2015 compared with November 2014. ONS Beta website available The ONS have been developing a new website to replace the current version. UK Trade, November 2015 The UK’s deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods and services was £3.2 billion in November 2015. Quarterly National Accounts, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 UK gross domestic product in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015; revised from the previously published estimate of 0.5%. Balance of Payments, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015
Help wanted: The future of work in advanced economies | McKinsey Global Institute | Labor Markets Some 40 million workers across advanced economies are unemployed. With many nations still facing weak demand—and the risk of renewed recession—hiring has been restrained. Yet there are also long-range forces at play that will make it more difficult for advanced economies to return to pre-recession levels of employment in the years to come. As a result, we see that the current disequilibrium in many national labor markets will not be solved solely with measures that worked well in decades past. To help develop appropriate new responses, MGI examines five trends that are influencing employment levels and shaping how work is done and jobs are created: 1. Over the past three decades, technology has altered how production and routine transaction work is done, substituting machines for assembly-line workers and ATMs for bank tellers, for example. Exhibit 1 Most job growth in mature economies involves complex interactions, not routine production or transaction work. Enlarge 2. Exhibit 2 3. 4. 5.
Forecasting and Econometric Models: The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics An econometric model is one of the tools economists use to forecast future developments in the economy. In the simplest terms, econometricians measure past relationships among such variables as consumer spending, household income, tax rates, interest rates, employment, and the like, and then try to forecast how changes in some variables will affect the future course of others. Before econometricians can make such calculations, they generally begin with an economic model, a theory of how different factors in the economy interact with one another. For instance, think of the economy as comprising households and business firms, as depicted in Figure 1. This chain of events, as shown by the activities numbered 1–5 in Figure 1, is a description—or diagrammatic model—of the operation of a private-enterprise economy. Figure 1. In the equation for clothing purchases, C = .12W, “12 percent” was selected purely for illustrative purposes. Actually, no econometric model is ever truly complete.
商業服務業資訊網-首頁 IMF warns of stagnation threat to G7 economies | Business The International Monetary Fund is warning that the weak recovery in the west risks turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year. In its half-yearly update on the health of the world economy, the Washington-based fund predicted expansion of 3.1% in 2015, 0.2 points lower than it was expecting three months ago and the weakest performance since the trough of the downturn in 2009. “Six years after the world economy emerged from its broadest and deepest postwar recession, a return to robust and synchronised global expansion remains elusive,” said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor. “Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth rates marginally, but nearly across the board. None of the other G7 countries – Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada – is predicted to post growth as high as 2% in either 2015 or 2016.
A Continent In Crisis: What Can We Do To Save Euro? Double dip recession is the most frequent phrase I usually encounter while reading news. The stories developing in Europe are boring. Greece default, Greece default, Greece default and the need of contagion! In last article, I suggest only a new bold action will solve the crises in Eurozone. Bailout has been a self-defeating strategy. Actually, France and Britain have spent more already in the form of military intervention in Libya dubbed as Military Keynesians. More and more people are thinking the next recession is just around the corner. Please don’t wait until the Greece’s debts become gigantic. Europe shouldn’t have played too hard. We need to talk to Germany how to solve the crises.
IMF Survey : Uncertainty, Complex Forces Weigh on Global Growth Copper mill, Chile: Declining copper prices are weighing on outlook for emerging and developing commodity exporters (photo: Radius Images/Corbis) IMF Survey October 6, 2015 Global growth moderate and uneven, forecast at 3.1 percent this year, 3.6 percent in 2016Disparate fortunes between the advanced and emerging market and developing economiesLower commodity prices weigh on commodity exporters The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) foresees lower global growth compared to last year, with modest pickup in advanced economies and a slowing in emerging markets, primarily reflecting weakness in some large emerging economies and oil-exporting countries. “Six years after the world economy emerged from its broadest and deepest postwar recession, the holy grail of robust and synchronized global expansion remains elusive,” said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department. Recovery in advanced economies on course Downside risks more significant
Expert: Journalists were caught off guard by Europe's economic crisis Via Pedro Rivas Ugaz on Flickr, used with a CC-license. As Europe's economic crisis deepens, journalists covering the area are challenged to analyze, interpret, and above all, predict what will happen. "Journalism is a service to society. Journalists have to counter to political and economic powers and provide citizens with information to make democratic and freedom decisions," said Ramon Salaverría , professor of online journalism at the University of Navarra , He believes journalists are missing the mark, failing to analyze undercurrents that tell a more accurate story. - IJNet: What do you think about the coverage of European media on the economic crisis? - Ramon Salaverría: Here (in Europe) we're not used to this kind of crisis. Perhaps journalists didn't have much previous experience with the challenges posed by a situation of this magnitude. My regret is more about what was not done before it hit and what isn't being done now. What did not happen before the crisis?
Gross domestic product A map of world economies by size of GDP (nominal) in USD, World Bank, 2014 Definition The OECD defines GDP as "an aggregate measure of production equal to the sum of the gross values added of all resident and institutional units engaged in production (plus any taxes, and minus any subsidies, on products not included in the value of their outputs).” An IMF publication states that "GDP measures the monetary value of final goods and services—that are bought by the final user—produced in a country in a given period of time (say a quarter or a year). Total GDP can also be broken down into the contribution of each industry or sector of the economy. The ratio of GDP to the total population of the region is the per capita GDP and the same is called Mean Standard of Living. History The history of the concept of GDP should be distinguished from the history of changes in ways of estimating it. Determining gross domestic product (GDP) Production approach U.S. Data