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2016 Election Forecast

2016 Election Forecast

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Related:  STATISTIQUES D'ELECTIONSEvaluation Tools2016 Election Thoughts & GuessesAge et élections

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Elevating Trump The new evidence provided by Wikileaks’s Podesta files makes a convincing case that the Clinton team wanted extreme Republicans as the best possible opponents. They wanted not rational discourse but exactly the kind of mean-spirited bigotry that Trump has delivered so well. The Wikileaks documents are a window into the soul of power. We can see how the Clinton machine played the strategy of triangulation on the level of action and tactic. The Motive

Office Timeline: Download Office Timeline Erica B. Business Lead For years, I’ve used a tedious cut-and-paste approach to laying out timelines and schedules for important meetings. Election Update: Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. As I wrote last week, Hillary Clinton is probably going to become the next president. But there’s an awful lot of room to debate what “probably” means. More Politics Circos Visualization of Tabular Data Before uploading a data file, check the samples gallery to make sure that your data format is compatible. Your file must be plain text. Your data values must be non-negative integers. Michael Moore: People will vote for Donald Trump as a giant “F**k you” — and he’ll win Despite most indicators showing Donald Trump well behind his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the key states he needs to win the Nov. 8 presidential election, populist filmmaker Michael Moore has long argued that the Republican nominee has more support than people may think. At a recent promotional event for his new film “Michael Moore in TrumpLand,” Moore told audience members that he thinks the loudmouthed GOP nominee is going to win, largely because American elites are so cut off from regular people that they don’t realize just how much the middle class has been harmed in recent years. “I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump, and they don’t necessarily agree with him,” the left-leaning documentarian said. Many middle- to lower-income people are going to support the former reality TV star because at least he uses language directly pertinent to issues that have affected their lives, Moore argued.

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theconversation A populist wave that began with Brexit in June reached the United States in stunning fashion on Tuesday night. In one of the biggest upsets in American political history, Donald Trump won a truly historic victory in the U.S. presidential election. Trump’s remarkably decisive win stunned most political pundits, myself included. Throughout the campaign, Trump seemed to have a polling ceiling of about 44 percent and he consistently had the highest unfavorability rating of any major party nominee in history. Accordingly, months ago I predicted that Clinton would easily beat Trump. Generational labels are lazy, useless, and just plain wrong Science fiction uses generations as guinea pigs in thought experiments: writers will change one important feature of human life, but leave the rest intact, in order to hypothesise how a single, world-rearranging shift might play out. In S M Stirling’s Emberverse series (2004-), a mysterious event alters the laws of physics, neutralising electricity and gunpowder, and the kids who are born after ‘The Change’ – archers, farmers, fighters – are different from the ones who knew the powered world. In Robert Heinlein’s Orphans of the Sky (1963), people living in the closed environment of a multigenerational starship mutiny and kill many of their leaders; years later, their descendants have lost any true knowledge of their situation and believe that their ship is the whole world. These fictions work because they are controlled experiments. They allow you to shove aside the complexities of life, to isolate one variable, one aspect of human experience. Get Aeon straight to your inbox

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