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Chapter Five Preparing for the Future

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About the report · Global Challenges Foundation. This report has, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, created the first list of global risks with impacts that for all practical purposes can be called infinite.

About the report · Global Challenges Foundation

It is also the first structured overview of key events related to such risks and has tried to provide initial rough quantifications for the probabilities of these impacts. With such a focus it may surprise some readers to find that the report’s essential aim is to inspire action and dialogue as well as an increased use of the methodologies used for risk assessment. The real focus is not on the almost unimaginable impacts of the risks the report outlines.

Its fundamental purpose is to encourage global collaboration and to use this new category of risk as a driver for innovation. HSC Toolkit - Horizon scanning. Why use it?

HSC Toolkit - Horizon scanning

Reviewing a broad spectrum of information, beyond usual timescales and sources. Drawing insights from participants. Identifying future challenges and trends. E01.pdf. Now Journal. Many futurists today believe that civilization is heading into a series of disruptive changes – a tipping point – that will lead to either the rebirth of a sustainable society or to system-wide collapse.

Now Journal

What will actually happen? What are the most likely scenarios? To help address such questions, it will be useful to discuss some concepts and terminology used by researchers when considering plausible, probable, and preferable future possibilities. LinkClick.aspx. Causal Layered Analysis Defined. Complexity requires us to examine futures-related issues from many angles and at multiple levels.

Causal Layered Analysis Defined

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is a theory of knowledge and a methodology for creating more-effective policies and strategies. Causal_layered_analysis_intro_chapter.pdf. News aggregator. News aggregator Function[edit]

News aggregator

Marconi's Wireless Telegraph Co. December 1901.

Marconi's Wireless Telegraph Co

Poldhu Wireless Station. Cable & Wireless Communications. Connected Earth: First generation technologies. Connected Earth: The telegraphic age dawns. Double-needle telegraph (1840s) : two for the price of one Sharing information and changing signals down the line were essential for the safe operation of a railway and this two-needle telegraph was designed to deal with these needs on the Lancashire railway during the mid 1840s Stamped across the face of the instrument are a range of letters and names.

Connected Earth: The telegraphic age dawns

The History of the Telegraph - Samuel Morse. The electric telegraph is a now outdated communication system that transmitted electric signals over wires from location to location that translated into a message.

The History of the Telegraph - Samuel Morse

The non-electric telegraph was invented by Claude Chappe in 1794. This system was visual and used semaphore, a flag-based alphabet, and depended on a line of sight for communication. PDI > Continuing Education > PDI Blog > Identifying the Black Swan – Can You Spot the Risk. A “black swan event” is defined as one that is a surprise to the observer, has a major effect, and following its first occurrence, is rationalized by hindsight as if it could or should have been expected or predicted.

PDI > Continuing Education > PDI Blog > Identifying the Black Swan – Can You Spot the Risk

Could the “unexpected” actually have been foreseen? How often have we been caught off guard by the “unexpected” that was right in front of us? We often find ourselves focused on one particular area of risk leading us to inevitably miss it in unexpected areas like partner relationships, individual behaviour or strategy that together influence one’s overall corporate reputation.

IBM: These Are The Top 7 Social Trends That Will Emerge In 2014. Three Key Global Environmental Stories to Watch in 2014. Income growth across the developing world continues to spur individual empowerment, better health and longer lives, and environmental awareness.

Three Key Global Environmental Stories to Watch in 2014

But it is also placing ever more pressure on natural resources as more people are able to afford energy-intensive and resource-depleting lifestyles, with bigger homes, more meat and fish in their diets, and private transportation. So, year after year, environmentalists inevitably find themselves asking the same question: “Can we continue growing the global economy while simultaneously making it more sustainable?” Each January during its annual forum, the World Resources Institute, an environmental and energy think tank in Washington, D.C., probes that question by examining key indicators across the globe.

MRMR_Marsh-Maplecroft Political Risk_FINAL.pdf. Seven global regulatory trends to watch in 2014. February 4, 2014 Dentons team of regulatory experts from key jurisdictions around the world weigh in on regulatory trends to watch in 2014 – from antitrust to foreign investment to anticorruption in the EU, the US, Canada and China. 9 Economic Trends to Watch in 2014. Predicting trends is no easy task, especially in the short term. Most people who can do it accurately in the world of economics and finance are millionaires, or they should be. But if you don't have a crystal ball, at least you can watch some short-term trends with long-term implications.

Here are nine of my favorites for the coming year -- and beyond. 1. East Asia's declining share of world output. Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. ORLANDO, Fla., October 8, 2013 View All Press Releases Analysts Examine Top Industry Trends at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2013 October 6-10 in Orlando Gartner, Inc. today highlighted the top ten technologies and trends that will be strategic for most organizations in 2014.

Environmental scanning and organizational learning in entrepreneurial ventures. Entrepreneurs' knowledge is critical to building sustainable competitive advantage in the 21st century (Lerner and Almor, 2002; Anand, Glick, and Manz, 2002). Because of increased globalization, rapid technological changes, and increased competition, entrepreneurs are facing new and unexpected challenges. These changes have significantly increased the quality and quantity of information that entrepreneurs must consider when making decisions. Entrepreneurs, therefore, must process and learn from the information, and use the new knowledge for improved decision making. "New knowledge is the key resource for creating a sustainable competitive advantage. "

Ideas on effective environmental scanning in the digital age. Environmental scanning is a process for monitoring an organization’s internal and external environments for clues to change that could mean new threats and opportunities. It is a different process than it was 10 or 20 years ago. The old approaches were often troublesome, narrow, weak, and too complex. They did little to foster a culture of foresight in the organization. A new framework for environmental scanning, essay by Richard Slaughter.

Monday, July 07, 2014 Richard Slaughter is Foundation Professor of Foresight at the Australian Foresight Institute. This article first appeared in Foresight, the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking and policy, vol.01, no.05, oct.99 (Camford Publishing Ltd). Richard Slaughter. Ray Gagnon: Strategic Planning: Laying the Foundation with a Solid Environmental Scan. Environmental Scanning - ES-Guide-April-09.pdf. Environmental Scanning: Looking 'Outside' for Strategic Intelligence — WoodPro. By Steve Bukowski and Judd Michael In this TechNote we address a management practice known as " environmental scanning ", or just scanning for short.

Scanning has been used by a variety of organizations for many years, with its origination perhaps coming from military intelligence and strategic planning. 8 Important Needs and Importance of Environmental Scanning. The rise and rise of horizon scanning in risk management programmes. Flawed ‘horizon scanning’ programme an ‘echo chamber’ for Government views. The Government launched its new horizon scanning programme last July, stating that “in a tight economic climate, it is more important than ever to have the best possible understanding of the world around us, and how that world is changing”.

It claimed that the new programme would help identify “potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities”, allowing policy-makers to better adapt to changing conditions. Horizon scanning: why forward plans are back in fashion. Horizon scanners examine future potential threats, opportunities and developments to improve policymaking. Photograph: Getty Images. iKnow Community: Wild Cards - Preparing for the Unpredictable. Thinking About the "Practically Unthinkable": Energy Infrastructure and the Threat of Low-Probability, High-Impact Events » Publications » The Federalist Society.

Thinking About the "Practically Unthinkable": Energy Infrastructure and the Threat of Low-Probability, High-Impact Events Engage Volume 12, Issue 3, November 2011 December 1, 2011 Adam J. White. Personal Strategic Planning. Are You Ready for a Black Swan? VP USL 04-06-2011 - Strategyand-Stress-Testing-with-Disrupter-Analysis.pdf. When is a black swan not a black swan? Impact of Highly Improbable Freak Events on Business: Reality of Unknown-Unknowns... Blame it on the Black Swan! - Blame-it-on-the-Black-Swan.pdf. GLOBALIZATION - THE BLACK SWAN. THE BLACK SWAN - the_black_swan.pdf. Is Bitcoin a Black Swan Event? Bitcoin Magazine.

Template - ART_Croy_Being Prepared.pdf.