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The Post-Normal Times
After explaining what a normal climate is, Heidi Cullen asks whether there actually is a normal climate at all, given that each of the past three decades has been hotter than the previous one, with 2000-2009 being the hottest on record. But nevertheless, she goes on to refer to the “new normals”, defined as a region’s weather averaged over 30 years, which are updated at the end of each decade. These show that “on average, conditions were about 3.6 F warmer from 2001-2010 than from 1971-1980.” As it will likely take a long time before we actually reach a new normal, it seems like it is time for a new term to characterize this interim period. Again, Welcome to Post-Normal Times! And note that I am no longer the only one using the term.
Last week I was at the 2012 AGU Fall Meeting . I plan to blog about many of the talks, but let me start with the Tyndall lecture given by Ray Pierrehumbert, on “Successful Predictions”. You can see the whole talk on youtube , so here I’ll try and give a shorter summary.
Serendipity: What has software engineering got to do with climate change?
On the role of software engineering in the study of climate change. by Jul 26