Overhaul of corporate bond market under way.
Global Risks 2013 by numbers. The Global Risks 2013 report , which captures how experts see the most important risks afflicting the world over the next ten years, is stuffed full of facts, figures and graphics. You can sift through the findings in our data explorer , which lets you filter how global risks are seen by region, age and gender, among other criteria. Browse this map showing the top three risks around the world in terms of impact, and check out the list below of figures which shed light on the report’s methodology as well as some of the many facets of a world at risk. Global Risks 2013 Image: An investor is seen in front of an electronic board with stock information REUTERS/Stringer Shanghai. La bombe à retardement climatique fait trembler Davos. Ce qui restait jusqu'à présent le credo de certains écologistes férus d'économie et de plus rares économistes (dont Joseph Stiglitz ou Nicholas Stern) ouverts aux thèses environnementales, pénètre le saint des saints de l'économie mondiale.
Alors que la plupart des acteurs économiques, gouvernements, financiers, chefs d'entreprises et consommateurs confondus prennent prétexte de la crise économique pour repousser les investissements nécessaires au traitement de la crise environnementale, l'étude consacrée aux risques, publiée en amont du sommet de Davos, démontre que cette attitude ne fait qu'aggraver les choses. Et que c'est précisément de la collision entre les deux crises que pourraient découler les plus grands dangers de ces prochaines années.
Le cortège des crises liées au changement climatique 2% de PIB américain en moins sur les 20 prochaines années La perte en termes de PIB s'élèverait à 2% sur les 20 prochaines années, selon l'ONG américaine DARA. Www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2013. Avoiding middle-income growth traps. In the postwar era, many countries have managed to quickly reach middle-income status, but few have gone on to become high-income economies1. Rather, after an initial period of rapid ascent, many countries have experienced a sharp slowdown in growth and productivity, falling into what has been called a ‘middle-income trap’: The World Bank (2012) estimates that of 101 middle-income economies in 1960, only 13 became high income by 2008. Those countries were Equatorial Guinea, Greece, Hong Kong SAR (China), Ireland, Israel, Japan, Mauritius, Portugal, Puerto Rico, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Spain, and Taiwan, China (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Per capita incomes relative to the US, 1960 and 2008 A common explanation of growth slowdowns is based on a Lewis-type development process (Canuto 2011; Eichengreen et al 2011; and World Bank 2012): We present an alternative characterisation of middle-income traps (Agénor and Canuto 2012)3. Debates: World economy: Statements. The world this year. Rumour hurts more than truth. ASIC seizes phone, computer: activist. The seamless short-term hoax.
Basel move is holiday cheer for bankers. Why New Basel Rules Won't Make Safer Banks. No doubt many bank critics will decry the final rules as a giveaway to the banks. Some folks see loosening any rules as increasing systemic risk, rewarding reckless bankers, and a sign that bankers are once again writing their own rules. Bank shareholders, on the other hand, will likely cheer the changes. The delayed enforcement should keep bank earnings higher than they would have been, since buying high quality liquid assets generally has a lower return on investment than buying riskier assets. Bank shareholders, who enjoy limited liability because their investments can't go below zero, generally prefer more risk than less. Even on a risk-adjusted basis, the returns on high quality liquid assets can be significantly lower because banks must-crowd into the officially approved asset classes.
This is where the expansion of the definition of high quality helps. By broadening the asset class required by regulators, it reduces some of the squeeze. But is it good news for the rest of us? Bâle III, les banques réussissent de nouveau à imposer leur diktat aux régulateurs mondiaux. (Easybourse.com) Le comité de Bâle a décidé d'assouplir le ratio de liquidité, un élément clé de la réforme réglementaire destinée à rendre les banques plus résistantes aux crises financières. Après deux années d’intenses pressions exercées par les grands acteurs de l’industrie bancaire, le comité de Bâle à décidé de revoir à la baisse le ratio de liquidité destiné à s’assurer de la résistance des établissements en cas de nouvelles crises financières. Ce ratio a notamment pour objet d’imposer la détention d’un montant suffisant d’actifs "très liquides". Les banques n’ont cessé de soutenir que le ratio envisagé était trop sévère, qu’il conduirait à une massive réduction de la marge de manœuvre en ce qui concerne l’activité de prêts et que cela mettrait incontestablement à mal les économies réelles.
Les régulateurs ont été réceptifs à ces arguments. Plusieurs caractéristiques de ce ratio ont été revues. L’hypothèse de «crise» servant à établir le ratio a également été corrigée. </b>*} Basel gives Australian banks a $70 billion reprieve. Looser bank buffer rules no panacea for Europe, US. Trade deficit biggest in over four years. Japan to get $130bn stimulus.
Construction activity declines further. House building activity declined at its steepest rate in the three months during December. Photo: Glenn Hunt Marianna Papadakis The construction sector is expected to shed jobs as the residential building industry continues contracting this year. Construction activity shrank in the past 31 months with new orders for detached houses dropping steeply. While the overall rate of contraction eased in the past three months, with the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association’s construction index rising 1.8 index points to 38.8 points in December, consistent readings below 50 points are worrying industry forecasters who point to a continued slow down in home building. Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said house building represented more than 60 per cent of all residential construction and was at recession levels last year. First home owner grants were helping to stimulate home building, but activity among trade up buyers and investors was still weak.
Business makes most of high $A. Best investments may be overseas: JB Were. Shop till the sales figures drop. Barely a flutter from the Aussie. Bond markets wrestle with Basel. Private schools show our class lines. Europe’s socialist success story. ++ The Middle Kingdom and the Middle Income Trap - More education and more equity – How the experiences of South Korea and Mexico offer a guide to economic growth after a boom from low-skilled labor In recent years the world has recognized the existence of a middle income trap and the issue of whether China is headed toward such a predicament has attracted attention.
The middle income trap occurs when a country's growth slows and eventually plateaus after reaching a middle income level. The problem usually arises when developing economies find themselves stuck in the middle. On the one hand, with rising wages, the nations are less competitive with lesser-developed, low-wage economies in the cheap production of manufactured goods. On the other hand, they are unable to compete with advanced economies in high-skill innovations. Perhaps the highest profile statement of this was issued jointly by the World Bank and the China Development Research Center. Certainly all of these are important. Transition from Middle to High Income. John Quiggin – Prospects of a Keynesian utopia. I first became an economist in the early 1970s, at a time when revolutionary change still seemed like an imminent possibility and when utopian ideas were everywhere, exemplified by the Situationist slogan of 1968: ‘Be realistic.
Demand the impossible.’ Preferring to think in terms of the possible I was much influenced by an essay called ‘Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren,’ written in 1930 by John Maynard Keynes, the great economist whose ideas still dominated economic policymaking at the time. Like the rest of Keynes’s work, the essay ceased to be discussed very much during the decades of free-market liberalism that led up to the global financial crisis of 2007 and the ensuing depression, through which most of the developed world is still struggling.
And, also like the rest of Keynes's work, this essay has enjoyed a revival of interest in recent years, promoted most notably by the Keynes biographer Robert Skidelsky and his son Edward. Linear growth? Obama and the transformation illusion - Opinion. Everyone has an ideology, whether they know it or not. But when your ideology has you - that's when you're an ideologue. It's not a matter of "extremism" but of rigidity and blindness - detachment from reality. Which is why Barack Obama is one of the most ideological presidents we've ever had. And being imprisoned in his "pragmatist" ideology is key to his numerous pragmatic train wrecks, as well his less-noted failures to even take on several really big, really significant problems. It's not a matter of intelligence. Barack Obama is clearly one of the smartest men to ever occupy the Oval Office.
President of the Harvard Law Review, four years from state senator to President of the United States. Unfortunately, however, smart people can often be quite dumb - not just do dumb things, but do them over and over and over again. Soros' prophecies Two in particular are worth noting. Soros' words have proven prophetic - but only in the counterfactual sense of a road not taken. 'This brutal new system': a GP's take on Atos and work capability assessments | Anna Pilkington. I had not seen Eileen for some time, until a few months ago when I was asked to phone her. She sounded distressed, confused and frightened and did not understand what was happening to her. She has been a patient of mine for 10 years and over time, I've tried to help her cope with her mental illness. A few years ago her mental health had deteriorated so much that she needed to be in hospital.
All her benefits had been stopped, Eileen explained, and she was in arrears with her rent. Later, Eileen was sent a letter. I have watched with mounting horror as my patient, an extremely vulnerable woman, has been put at risk of homelessness and deteriorating illness as a result of government policy. The government will say that there is an appeal process built into the system for those who have been passed capable of work and disagree with the outcome. I have witnessed a woman in her 20s who has a condition that means she is slowly dementing, and will eventually die at a young age. A year when even bankers fell on back foot. Citigroup CEO names new executive team. Microsoft Asia-Pacific head moves to Australia Post. Microsoft vice-president for Asia-Pacific Tracey Fellows has left her posiotion to join Australia Post. She will take up the position of Australia Post executive general manager for the company's new communications management services division, which combines Australia Post's mail services and eServices business units.
The news was first reported by the AFR. Fellows had previously been the managing director of Microsoft Australia for four years. In December 2010, she was promoted to her Asia-Pacific role, based in Singapore. She will be returning to Australia for her new job. "Tracey's background in technology and her strong sales and marketing experience, working closely with large enterprises and government agencies, made her the standout candidate," an Australia Post spokesperson said. She is the first executive general manager appointed by the government-owned postal service, and will begin her new role in mid to late February. Prior to working at Microsoft, Fellows worked for Dell. Rebranded Australia Post out to make its mark.
Microsoft chief quits to join Australia Post. Tracey Fellows has been with Microsoft for 9 years, and will return from Singapore to Australia to join Australia Post in February Michele Mossop Paul Smith Ms Fellows will help lead Australia Post’s plans to transition away from its reliance on traditional snail mail, into the digital world Glenn Campbell Australia Post has swooped to hire Microsoft’s Asia Pacific president Tracey Fellows to bolster its technology expertise further as it pursues an increasingly digital strategy.
Ms Fellows, who was previously the managing director of Microsoft Australia, will become Australia Post’s first executive general manager for its new communications management services business unit, which combines its previously separate postal services and e-services divisions. The move comes after Australia Post installed former Telstra chief financial officer John Stanhope as its chairman in November. Ms Fellows will begin her new role in February, and Microsoft said it was close to announcing her replacement. Banks reach settlements on mortgages. Macquarie’s brightest star. Dream deals to add to investors’ and bankers’ new year wish lists.
The outlook for Australand. Independence worry in CBA’s Aussie takeover. CEOs step up cyber offensive. CGU on road to recovery. QBE appoints Asia Pacific chief executive. Natural disasters inflate insurance premiums. Time for action as disaster risks rise, insurer says. Insurance losses from fires - and floods - are on the increase. Photo: Les Smith Australia's exposure to natural risks is on the increase and governments at all levels should step up joint efforts to limit the losses and prevent insurance costs from spiralling higher, one of the country's biggest insurers says.
Modest investments in flood or fire mitigation measures can significantly reduce the cost of the disasters when they inevitably occur, Suncorp Group said in its Risky Business report on risk management. “More frequent extreme weather events, economic growth, urbanisation and population shifts towards high-risk areas have all combined to dramatically increase Australia's risk exposure,” Suncorp said in the report.
“The chance that natural hazard will become natural disaster is greater than ever.” Record heat Advertisement Much of Australia remains gripped in record heatwave conditions. Insurers continue to tally the cost of the bushfires across south-eastern Australia. Taking steps. ++ Risky Business Paper - Suncorp Group 2013.pdf. Economists agree: RBA will cut rates further. Greens push for ATM fees to be scrapped. Local banks sweat on APRA’s response. Regulators ease key bank rule to spur credit.