Scenarios. Guru: Pierre Wack. Shell Scenarios - A tool for the future. Why Scenario Planning. The Evolution of Scenario Planning. Scenario Thinking has a long history.
Back in the 16th Century a Spanish Jesuit theologist and scholar, Luis de Molina, was credited with introducing the concept of ‘conditional future contingents’ or ‘futuribilia’ as an explanation for free will, foreknowledge and predestination (Molina 1589, in Malaska & Virtanen, 2005 pg 12). More recently, in 1960s France, the Futurist Gaston Berger reflected in his work ‘Phénoménologies du Temps et Prospectives’ (trans.
Prospective methodologies) on contextualising past and present events with a view to making choices in alternative futures (Berger, 1964). Referring to Molina, the French political philosopher Bertrand de Jouvenel, took the idea of ‘futuribilia’ and combined ‘future’ and ‘possible’ into a new term called ‘futurible’ (de Jouvenel, 1967 in Malaska & Virtanen, 2005 pg 12).